NAPSNet 5 May 2011

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet 5 May 2011", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 05, 2011, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-5-may-2011/

NAPSNet 5 May 2011

  1. AUSTRAL SECURITY: US asked to ratify nuclear-free Pacific
  2. DETERRENCE:  Regional responses to extra-territoriality and non-state nuclear actors: a perspective from Southeast Asia
  3. DPRK: KCNA commentary slashes at US invariable ambition for preemptive nuclear attack
  4. GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: North Korea ‘behind South Korean bank cyber hack’
  5. ENERGY SECURITY: The path from Fukushima: short and medium-term impacts of the reactor damage caused by the Japan earthquake
  6. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: The use of scenarios in adaptation planning – managing risks in simple to complex settings

AUSTRAL SECURITY: US asked to ratify nuclear-free Pacific, Sky News, 03-05-2011

US President Barak Obama has submitted the Rarotonga Treaty for a South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone (SPNFZ) to the U.S. Senate for ratification. This comes 25 years after the treaty first came into force. While it signed the treaty in 1996, the United States is the only country not to have ratified the treaty.

DETERRENCE:  Regional responses to extra-territoriality and non-state nuclear actors: a perspective from Southeast Asia, Raymund Quilop, NAPSNet Special Report, Nautilus Institute, 2011-05-05

To support their 1540 obligations, Quilop suggests that all ASEAN states sign bilateral extradition treaties, upgrade intelligence exchanges, especially to control border-crossings, and incorporate non-state WMD proliferation into the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty.

DPRK: KCNA commentary slashes at US invariable ambition for preemptive nuclear attack, KCNA, 2011-12-04

North Korea’s KCNA used particularly harsh language to condemn a recent US-ROK meeting of the US-ROK extended deterrence policy committee. The article noted that US extended deterrence necessitated that the DPRK build its own war deterrence to protect the “supreme interests” of the state.  The article alleges that the US and ROK are using the US nuclear umbrella to threaten the DPRK and links extended deterrence to the US reaction to the 2009 DPRK missile launch.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: North Korea ‘behind South Korean bank cyber hack’, BBC NEWS 2011-05-03

Seoul’s Central Prosecutors’ office concluded that North Korea caused the crash of Nonghyup Bank’s computer system. This conclusion is reminiscent of the response to the Cheonan warship attack which also focused on the problematical relationship between South-North Korea. Meanwhile, the South Korean government is set to receive a massive database from Berlin on the 1990 reunification of Germany for use in understanding issues associated with Korean unification, which is still a critical issue in North Korea as well.

ENERGY SECURITY: The path from Fukushima: short and medium-term impacts of the reactor damage caused by the Japan earthquake and tsunami on Japan’s electricity systems, David von Hippel, and Kae Takase, Nautilus Institute, 2011-04-11

The March 11 earthquake and its aftermath left the electricity systems in northern Honshu short of generating capacity, likely for many years.  How short will depend on the extent of damage to the system, public opinion about nuclear power, energy conservation efforts, and other factors. Reconstruction of the Japanese energy sector using renewable energy and energy efficiency technology will be cheaper, faster, cleaner, and more resilient than using traditional central power plants.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: The use of scenarios in adaptation planning – managing risks in simple to complex settings, Roger Jones, VCCCAR Scenarios for Climate Adaptation Working Paper, Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research, Melbourne, Australia, 2010-11 [314 KB, PDF]

Scenarios have three main roles within the risk assessment process: in scoping risk; risk analysis and evaluation; and risk management. This paper investigates how scenarios applied within a risk-based context can assist in climate adaptation planning and implementation. It addresses scenarios in a range of settings designed to manage risk, ranging from simple to complex. The paper finds that the use of scenarios changes according to the complexity of the system or issues being faced.

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