NAPSNet 1 December 2011
- DETERRENCE: The amateur strategist, intuitive deterrence theories and the politics of the nuclear arms race
- DPRK: Anthracite export to China suspended temporarily
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Converging and conflicting interests in adaptation to environmental change in central Vietnam
- ENERGY SECURITY: Small reactors planned for Zhangzhou
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Osaka voters reject status quo of Japan’s main parties
- AUSTRAL SECURITY: China reproaches Australia over strengthened US defence ties
DETERRENCE: The amateur strategist, intuitive deterrence theories and the politics of the nuclear arms race, J. DeNardo, Cambridge University Press (1995)
The data refute the idea that mutual deterrence is expert conventional wisdom. Expert preferences are better described as weird family trees, diverse political types, and loosely structured conceptual anarchy. The experts resemble novice, amateur strategists who use an intuitive deterrence calculus.
- From prediction to learning opening experts’ minds to unfolding history, Richard Herrmann and Choi Jong-kun, International Security, 31:4, Spring 2007, pp. 132-161 [subscription required]
- Nuclear weapons as a currency of power: Deconstructing the fetishism of force, Anne Harrington De Santana, Dissertation University of Chicago, Illinois August 2010, summary in Nonproliferation Review, 16:3 (November 2009) [PDF, 0.2MB]
DPRK: Anthracite export to China suspended temporarily, IFES NK Brief (24 November 2011)
The DPRK has suspended exports of anthracite coal to China due to fuel shortages. North Korea increased the exports of coal to China this year to secure hard currency. Anthracite exports from January to July 2011 were nine times as high as those in 2010. It is not clear how long the suspension will last. North Korea needs coal to power its industrial sector but is also dependant on the hard currency it gets from exporting anthracite coal.
- N. Korea’s mineral exports to China tripled from last year: Study, Yonhap News (6 November 2011)
- North Korean trade with china as reported in Chinese customs statistics: 1995-2009 energy and minerals trends and implications, Nathaniel Aden, Nautilus Institute Special Report, (11 June 2011)
- Status and future of the North Korean minerals sector, Edward Yoon, Nautilus Institute Special Report (9 February 2011)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Converging and conflicting interests in adaptation to environmental change in central Vietnam, Malin Beckman, Climate and Development, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 32-41 (June 2011) [PDF, 283KB]
Adaptation measures that are intended to increase resilience may simultaneously cause increased vulnerability at other scales. Policies on forest protection and construction of hydroelectric dams contribute to regulating flooding of the lowland areas. However, such policies also result in severe constraints in access to land and forest products for the mountain population, which has impacts on their capacity to manage risk and adapt to environmental change.
- Maladaptation: Editorial, Jon Barnett and Saffron O’Neill, Global Environmental Change, vol. 20, pp. 211-213 (2010) [PDF, 84KB]
- Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories and social resilience, Adger et al., Ambio: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 358-366 (June 2002) [PDF, 325KB]
ENERGY SECURITY: Small reactors planned for Zhangzhou, World Nuclear News (17 November 2011)
A joint venture of the China National Nuclear Corporation, China Guodian Corporation, and the Zhangzhou (Fujian Province) municipal government plans to build a small nuclear reactor (100 – 150 MW) at a cost of $787 million. The pressurized water reactor will provide the city with electricity, heat, and water desalination. The project will demonstrate a modular, multi-purpose reactor, one of China’s entries into the global small reactor field.
- Russia to lend Vietnam $9 billion for first nuclear plant, Bloomberg News (22 November 2011)
- Managing spent fuel from nuclear power reactors experience and lessons from around the world, International Panel on Fissile Materials (September 2011) [PDF, 4.9MB]
- Engaging the DPRK enrichment and small LWR program: What would It take? Peter Hayes and David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute NAPSnet Special Report (23 December 2010) [PDF, 313KB]
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Osaka voters reject status quo of Japan’s main parties, Mari Iwata, Wall Street Journal (27 November 2011)
In another sign of growing grassroots political movements in the region, voters in Osaka elected candidates from the year-old One Osaka party as mayor and governor, rejecting both the ruling and major opposition parties. This growing rejection of the political establishment also manifested itself in last month’s Seoul mayoral election and local people’s congress elections in China, in which non-CCP candidates were elected and subsequently jailed.
- Hashimoto, Matsui win twin Osaka polls, Eric Johnston, Japan Times (28 November 2011)
- Ex-Osaka governor elected mayor on pledge to eliminate position, Masatsugu Horie, Bloomberg (28 November 2011)
- Independents day, Hannah Beech, Time Magazine (31 October 2011)
AUSTRAL SECURITY: China reproaches Australia over strengthened US defence ties, Australian (17 November 2011)
China has strongly reproached Canberra over strengthened US defence ties, warning Australia may be “caught in the crossfire” if the United States uses new Australian-based military forces to threaten its interests.
- Australia could be caught in Sino-US crossfire, People’s Daily Online (16 November 2011)
- China displeased Australia will host American troops, AM, ABC (17 November 2011)
- US move overlooked as Diggers join Chinese for joint exercise, Michael Sainsbury, Australian (26 November 2011) [subscription required]
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Yi Kiho
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Scott Bruce
- Energy Security: David von Hippel
- Austral Security: Arabella Imhoff, Mihiri Weerasinghe