Nautilus Peace and Security Network – 25 September 2015

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Network – 25 September 2015", NAPSNet Weekly Report, September 25, 2015,

Deterrence imageDETERRENCE: 1984 Foreign Ministry report warned of Fukushima-type nuclear scenario, Reiji Yoshida, Japan Times (8 April 2015)

In 1984, Japan’s Foreign Ministry simulated damage from a hypothetical war-time attack on a nuclear power plant in a war and concluded that up to 18,000 people might die due to radiation exposure. The report was prompted by Israel’s 1981 strike on Iraq’s reactor. Non-state actors may be a more salient threat today.

dprk imageDPRK: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations, Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (2011) [PDF]

Given Chuseok – the major harvest festival in Northeast Asia – it is worth noting that North Korea is moving closer to food self-sufficiency. But, the overwhelming majority of North Korea’s population is dependent on extra-governmental markets, trade and international aid for food. The fact that North Korea is unable, but generally unwilling to compensate for the foodstuff short fall by buying on the international market is a matter for hot debate – outside of North Korea.

Governance imageGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Uncertain times fuel occult beliefs in China’s Communist Party hierarchy, Ben Blanchard, Reuters (31 July 2015)

Uncertainty in what the future may hold has led some Chinese Communist Party members to fortune tellers, with instances of a member receiving a poor fortune and months later finding himself under investigation. ROK youth have also taken a larger turn towards fortune tellers for help in making life decisions. The popularity of plastic surgery, however, is making it more difficult for fortune tellers to read the fates of the faces in front of them.

Image for 24-9-2015CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change as threat multiplier: Understanding the broader nature of the risk, Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia, BRIEFER No. 25, Center for Climate and Security (February 12, 2015) [451 KB, PDF]

The World Economic Forum (WEF) annually produces a report measuring perceptions of global risks among its ‘multi-stakeholder community’ of global leaders in the business, government and non-profit sectors. The past two reports, ‘Global Risks 2014’ and ‘Global Risks 2015’, have both identified climate change as a ‘perceived risk’ among this community. In both reports, climate change ranked among the ‘top five’ perceived global risks, in terms of ‘impact’. Three of the other top ten risks have explicit relationships with climate change: food crises, water crises and extreme weather events.

Source: This photo made available by the German government press office shows Chancellor Angela Merkel comforting a crying Palestinian girl threatened with deportation on July 15, 2015 (AFP Photo/Steffen Kugler)CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Migration, climate and security: the choice, Paul Rogers, openDemocracy (3 September 2015)

‘The asymmetric nature of climate change means that these large regions surrounding one of the richest parts of the world will have the greatest difficulties. They are likely to become drivers of migration to a far larger extent, with numbers measured not in the hundreds of thousands but in millions. In these circumstances, the consequences of securitising these issues will be huge, far greater than anything yet experienced. For this reason alone, it is essential that the current crisis is handled primarily with humanitarian concern, rather than by trying to “close the castle gates” – which in any case is impossible in a globalised system.’

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found — North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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