NAPSNet Daily Report Thursday, October 12, 2006

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NAPSNet Daily Report Thursday, October 12, 2006

NAPSNet Daily Report Thursday, October 12, 2006

I. NAPSNet

Preceding NAPSNet Report

I. NAPSNet

1. DPRK Sanctions Debate

BBC (“U.S. SOFTENS PROPOSAL ON NORTH KOREA”, 2006-10-12) reported that the United Nations Security Council today took up a softened American proposal for sanctions, but its prospects were clouded when the PRC appeared to pull back from its earlier support for tough measures. The new American resolution, to be formally introduced this morning, would declare DPRK actions to be a threat to international peace and stability and would require countries to freeze assets related to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs and ban the sale or transfer of materials that could be used in them. It would also ban travel by people involved in the programs and bar the sale of the luxury goods used to reward the regime’s elite. But unlike an earlier version, it would allow, but not require, inspections of all cargo going into or out of the DPRK, or the freezing of assets related to counterfeiting or narcotics, which American officials say are crucial sources of the hard currency needed to fund the weapons programs. Japanese demands for a ban on allowing DPRK ships or planes to enter other countries were also dropped. The new American draft still invokes Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter. But the PRC ambassador to the United Nations in New York, Wang Guangya, said on Wednesday that Beijing wanted to restrict the reference to Chapter 7 to its Article 41, which provides for economic penalties, severance of diplomatic relations or the banning of air travel, but not military measures. The PRC also reportedly wants the scope of sanctions to be focused more narrowly.

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2. Experts on DPRK Reasoning for Test

New York Times (“NORTH KOREA WARNS OF MORE NUCLEAR TESTS”, 2006-10-12) reported that some experts say the DPRK’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is a consistent strategy aimed at being taken seriously in the international arena. “The mind-set was that if you’re a small state like North Korea and there are many other problems in the world, the only way to get the United States’ attention is to escalate things in such a way as to force the Bush administration to deal with North Korea directly,” said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert with the Asia Foundation in Washington and the author of “Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior.” The nuclear test was also the product of the DPRK’s sense of insecurity — one that grew keener over the past decade because of its troubled economy and the leadership’s inability to control a population that began spilling out, by tens of thousands, across the border into the PRC and some to the ROK. As the DPRK began liberalizing its economy and trade boomed with the PRC, new threats of money-making and corruption materialized. The test, experts said, also grew out of the DPRK’s frustrations at the stalled six-nation talks and what it perceived as the Bush administration’s reluctance to engage in genuine negotiations. Last year, the United States offered security and economic incentives in return for the freezing of the DPRK nuclear program, but the deal quickly fell apart when Washington imposed economic sanctions around the same time, leading the DPRK to withdraw from the talks. “North Korea has nothing to show for its diplomatic efforts,” said Peter Beck, the Northeast Asia project director at the International Crisis Group, adding that the DPRK had also engaged in recent years in fruitless diplomacy with Japan and Europe. “That makes the military perspective much more appealing.”

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3. Question About Success of Nuclear Test

BBC (“N KOREA TEST – FAILURE OR FAKE?”, 2006-10-12) reported that scientists are still debating whether or not there is merit to the DPRK’s claim to have successfully detonated a nuclear bomb. The doubts stem from the size of the blast which seismic monitors around the world picked up in northern DPRK on Monday morning. Within a few hours, Russia said it was “100% certain” a nuclear test had been carried out and measured it at between five to 15 kilotons. But the ROK, France and the US have all measured it at less than one kiloton, far smaller than the 12.5 kiloton bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in WWII. If it was a smaller explosion – and the ROK estimates it at the equivalent of just 550 tons – it would be theoretically possible, though very difficult, for the DPRK to have detonated that amount of conventional explosives underground. More likely, scientists say, the test did not go to plan. Given this uncertainty, governments and scientists are urgently working to find some proof. They are analysing the seismic data as well as testing for any radioactive material released by the blast and now in the atmosphere. The ROK received a sophisticated radioactivity detector from Sweden on Wednesday to carry out further tests. US and Japanese monitoring planes based on the island of Okinawa are also believed to be flying in the region. But officials have warned that the process could take time. Others, including one French nuclear official, have warned that Monday’s nuclear test may never be confirmed. A one-off test may be a sign it has only limited quantities of weapons-grade plutonium and has some way to go on the design of a nuclear weapon. A second test would answer those doubts, and clear up the uncertainties still lingering from the first.

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4. Debate on Inter-Korean Projects

Korea Times (“ROH CAUTIOUS OVER INTER-KOREAN PROJECTS”, 2006-10-12) reported that the ROK government is debating whether or not to stop inter-Korean business exchanges as international talks on sanctions against the DPRK are underway. Roh has been collecting domestic opinion through meetings with people from various walks of life since Tuesday, when he held talks with leaders from the ruling and opposition parties over breakfast, and invited his predecessors for lunch. The international community, led by the United States and Japan, is moving to put a set of punitive steps in place that require an extensive range of economic sanctions and a possible blockade. The ROK said it would support sanctions the U.N. Security Council will take, unless they include military action. But the Roh administration is worried about the possibility that the inter-Korean economic projects could be affected. U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow said Tuesday that Seoul needs to reconsider its joint ventures, including the tourism project in Mt. Kumgang and the joint industrial park in Kaesong. ROK businesses, however, asked the government not to suspend the inter-Korean projects and humanitarian aid. Other participants also called for the government to protect their businesses under the firm principle of the separation of politics and the economy, since what they are doing is not only for making money but also for the reconciliation of the two Koreas.

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5. UN on DPRK Sanctions and Aid

Xinhua (“HUMANITARIAN AID TO DPRK SHOULD CONTINUE: UN OFFICIAL”, 2006-10-12) reported that Jan Egeland, U.N. Under Secretary-general for Humanitarian Affairs told a press conference that humanitarian aid to the DPRK should continue. All sanctions should be targeted toward its ability to be aggressive and its behavior that undermined security. All humanitarian activities should be exempted from any possible sanctions, he said.

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6. ASEAN on DPRK Nuclear Test

Xinhua (“ASEAN URGES DPRK TO DESIST FROM CONDUCTING MORE NUCLEAR TESTS”, 2006-10-12) reported that the ASEAN urged all parties concerned to exercise restraints and refrain from taking actions which would aggravate the tension on the Korean peninsula. The ASEAN emphasized at a foreign ministers’ meeting in July in Kuala Lumpur that the denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula was essential in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, said the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs in a recent statement. ASEAN countries are deeply concerned about the DPRK’s nuclear test, which is inconsistent with the DPRK’s commitments under the Joint Statement of September 2005 on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula of the Six-Party Talks in Beijing, and threatens peace and security in East Asia, it said.

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7. UNSG Appointment

The Associated Press (“U.N. TO APPOINT BAN AS SECRETARY-GENERAL”, 2006-10-12) reported that the General Assembly will appoint ROK Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon as the next UN secretary-general, giving him a 2 1/2-month transition before taking over from Kofi Annan on Jan. 1. Sheikha Haya Rashed Al Khalifa, the assembly president, set the appointment of the new secretary-general for Friday afternoon, assembly spokeswoman Gail Bindley-Taylor Sainte said.

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8. ROK on Nuclear Weapons

Kyodo (“67% OF S. KOREANS SAY SOUTH SHOULD HAVE NUCLEAR ARMS: POLL”, 2006-10-12) reported that sixty-seven percent of ROK citizens polled said the ROK should develop a nuclear capability and possess nuclear arms now that the DPRK has carried out a nuclear test, according to the results of a survey released by the Social Trend Institute. The survey covered 700 people but it was not disclosed how many replied to the questionnaire.

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9. Japan Missile Defense Program

Kyodo (“JAPAN MULLS EXPEDITING DEPLOYMENT OF MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM”, 2006-10-12) reported that Japan is considering moving up the timing of deploying a missile defense system from the currently eyed fiscal 2011 in the wake of the DPRK’s declared nuclear test, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said. “We would like to make efforts to promote the buildup of a missile defense network,” Abe told a plenary session of the House of Councillors Budget Committee.

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10. PRC Party Plenum

The New York Times (“CHINA MAKES COMMITMENT TO SOCIAL HARMONY”, 2006-10-12) reported that the PRC’s Communist Party, devoted in recent years to expanding the economy at any cost, endorsed a new doctrine that puts more emphasis on tackling the severe side effects of unrestrained growth. The leadership declared that a range of social concerns, including the surging wealth gap, corruption, pollution and access to education and medical care, must be placed on a par with economic growth in party theory and government policy.

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11. PRC Web Controls

Editor and Publisher (“CHINA UNBLOCKS WIKIPEDIA “, 2006-10-12) reported that the online interactive reference site Wikipedia announced Tuesday that the site had apparently been made accessible in the PRC, after being blocked for just over a year by the country’s government. Wikipedia reported on its site that it had received word from multiple users in the country on Chinese-forums.com that the site had been restored.

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12. PRC Arrest

Reuters (“CHINA ARRESTS DISSIDENT LAWYER FOR SUBVERSION”, 2006-10-12) reported that the PRC has arrested outspoken human rights lawyer Gao Zhisheng on charges of inciting subversion, his lawyer said, following two months of uncertainty over the activist’s detention and fate. Gao was arrested on September 21 “on suspicion of inciting subversion of state power,” lawyer Mo Shaoping said, adding that he had only now learned of the decision from prosecutors.

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