I. NAPSNet

1. DPRK Missile Test

Chosun Ilbo (“N.KOREA MAY TRY LAUNCHING ANOTHER LONG-RANGE MISSILE”, 2006-07-06) reported that the DPRK has another long-range Taepodong-2 missile of the kind that crashed into the ocean after launch on Wednesday, according to a confidential report by the ROK’s National Intelligence Service. That means another test launch is likely once the DPRK figures out how to fix the defect that scuppered the first attempt. Officials also contradicted reports Wednesday that the missile blew up in midair 42 seconds after launch, saying it actually traveled for seven minutes after veering from its original trajectory.

(return to top) Reuters (“NORTH KOREA VOWS MORE MISSILE TESTS”, 2006-07-06) reported that a defiant DPRK vowed more tests and threatened to use force if the international community tried to stop it. “The KPA will go on with missile launch exercises as part of its efforts to bolster deterrent for self-defense in the future,” the DPRK’s official KCNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying. “The DPRK will have no option but to take stronger physical actions of other forms, should any other country dare take issue with the exercises and put pressure upon it.” (return to top) Agence France-Presse (“US DISMISSES ‘WILD STATEMENTS’ FROM NORTH KOREA”, 2006-07-06) reported that the US warned it would not respond to “wild statements” and threats of new missile launches by the DPRK, and stepped up pressure on the PRC to lean on its neighbor. Senior State Department official Nicholas Burns shuttled between morning television shows as Washington apparently sought to prevent domestic political damage from the crisis and to bolster the diplomatic front against Pyongyang abroad. “We’re certainly not going to overreact … to these wild statements out of Pyongyang and North Korea. We’ve seen them before,” Burns, under secretary for political affairs, said on CBS television. “I think the North Koreans would like to pit the United States against themselves in a one-on-one battle of wills. We’re not going to fall for that,” said Burns. (return to top) Associated Press (“BUSH: HARD TO READ NORTH KOREA’S MOTIVES”, 2006-07-06) reported that President Bush said Thursday it is hard to read the DPRK’s motives in firing a missile with the potential to hit the US or Canada, but said the US cannot afford to misjudge the situation. “I think we’ve got to plan for the worst and hope for the best,” Bush said. (return to top) Agence France-Presse (“BUSH COURTS CHINA, RUSSIA ON NORTH KOREA”, 2006-07-06) reported that US President George W. Bush courted Russia and the PRC’s support for confronting the DPRK over its missile barrage as US diplomats aided a Japanese push for UN sanctions on Pyongyang. With Beijing and Moscow unyieldingly opposed to punitive measures, Bush emphasized that he sought a diplomatic solution to the crisis but that it would be most effective if the US and its partners spoke with “one voice.” “One way to send a message is through the United Nations. And the Japanese laid down a resolution which we support. But we’re working with our partners to make sure we speak with one voice,” said the president. The draft measure, co-sponsored by the US and Britain, would urge UN member states to prevent the transfer of financial resources, items, goods and technology that could contribute to Pyongyang’s missile program and other weapons of mass destruction programs. (return to top) Reuters (“HU DISCUSSES NORTH KOREA WITH BUSH”, 2006-07-06) reported that the PRC’s President Hu Jintao held talks on Thursday with President Bush and reiterated Beijing’s “serious concerns” after the DPRK’s missile tests, the PRC Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “We are seriously concerned about the current situation,” the statement quoted Hu as saying, echoing earlier comments by the foreign ministry. “We would like to maintain communication and consultation on the current situation with all involved parties,” Hu said, adding that he hoped all sides would remain calm and that six-country talks on the DPRK’s nuclear programs could be resumed as soon as possible. (return to top) Kyodo (“JAPAN SAYS N. KOREA MUST STOP MISSILE LAUNCHES, LAYS HOPE ON U.N.”, 2006-07-06) reported that Japan on Thursday repeated its call on the DPRK to stop any further missile launches and urged member nations of the UN Security Council to stand united in sending a strong message to Pyongyang, which said it will continue to hold missile launch exercises. ”Why did (North Korea) carry out the launches? There’s nothing for it to gain and it’s better for (the North) to stop doing that,” Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told reporters in the evening, while stressing that Japan has not given up resolving the issue through both dialogue and pressure. (return to top) Chosun Ilbo (“ASIANA PLANE IN CLOSE SHAVE AS NORTH LAUNCHES MISSILE”, 2006-07-06) reported that some 10 minutes before the DPRK test-fired its fist missile early Wednesday, an Asiana Airlines passenger plane crossed the missile’s future trajectory above the East Sea, it emerged Thursday, highlighting Pyongyang’s recklessness in firing the rockets without warning. The first missile was fired at 3:32 a.m. Asiana says flight OZ 235 from Chicago to Incheon International Airport flew across the area above the East Sea between 2:30-3:10 a.m. The track chart confirms the story. (return to top)

2. DPRK Intentions on Six Party Talks

Yonhap (“N. KOREA STATEMENT SHOWS INTENTION TO REJOIN NUCLEAR TALKS:ANALYSTS “, 2006-07-06) reported that the DPRK’s announcement Thursday that recent missile tests were unrelated to the country’s ongoing nuclear standoff with the US indicates that it could return to nuclear disarmament talks if certain conditions are met, analysts said. “The statement that the missile firing has nothing to do with the six-party talks can be seen as North Korea having no intention to break up the framework of six-party talks,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a DPRK expert at Seoul’s Dongguk University.

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3. Analysis of DPRK Missile Launch

ABC News Australia (“JONATHAN POLLOCK INTERVIEWED ON CONNECT ASIA”, 2006-07-05) Professor Jonathan Pollock, Naval War College, Rhode Island said that the North Koreans are making clear that they are prepared to launch such missiles independent of the objections of many in the international community. They may feel that there’s nothing that the international community will be able to do to further inhibit them and that would even include the Chinese and the South Koreans. So it may be that in a near term sense, it will reinforce the “deep freeze” that is there, the political level. It might lead the Chinese and the South Koreans to try at least for the moment, to put some kind of constraints on the assistance they provide the North, but frankly I tend to doubt it. I mean, not to bend over backwards on the behalf of the North Koreans, but they haven’t done anything illegal. There’s nothing that they have signed that precludes them from testing such missiles. They are presumably within their own sovereign rights as a nation state to do what they deem necessary, to demonstrate their own defence capabilities, even though many obviously are going to object very strongly to these tests.

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4. Criticism of ROK Response to Missile Test

Chosun Ilbo (“SEOUL’S LATE RESPONSE TO MISSILE LAUNCH DRAWS FLAK”, 2006-07-06) reported that the government’s tardiness in responding to Wednesday’s DPRK missile launch has prompted critics to ask whether Seoul is becoming cavalier about the country’s security. President Roh Moo-hyun was told of the missile launch at 5 a.m. on Wednesday, one minute after the DPRK launched a Taepodong-2 missile believed to have a 6,700 km range. He was not told of the launch of a 500 km Scud missile at 3:32 a.m. and a 1,300 km Rodong-1 at 4 a.m. The Scud is capable of hitting anywhere in the ROK, and the Rodong-1 can reach Japan. The most direct threat to the ROK, then, comes from the Scud, but no-one thought to inform the nation’s commander-in-chief when one went up. The blame is being put on the government’s response meachanism. It was not until after the Taepodong-2 had been launched that a decision was made to convene the NSC standing committee, and not until 7:30 a.m. that it did convene. The Japanese government, by contrast, issued an urgent warning at 3:52 a.m. and by 4 a.m. was already setting up a situation room at the Prime Minister’s residence, two or three hours faster than the ROK reaction. If there had been a real emergency, these delays would have cost lives.

(return to top) JoongAng Ilbo (“LAUNCH REACTION CALLED MISSING, LATE AND SLOW”, 2006-07-06) reported that the media and lawmakers in both major parties criticized Seoul’s intelligence as being insufficient and late in response to the DPRK’s test-firing of seven missiles. Kim Seung-kyu, head of the National Intelligence Service, was out of the country on the day the missiles were launched. Mr. Kim returned yesterday afternoon. Before he left, he told the Intelligence Committee that a launch was not imminent and that the missile situation had entered a lull. “The fact that the head of the National Intelligence Service could not predict a missile launch when it was imminent and was abroad shows how weak the government’s intelligence capability is,” said Grand National Party lawmaker Gong Sung-jin, a member of the committee. (return to top) JoongAng Ilbo (“ROH’S SILENCE EXTENDS A 2ND DAY”, 2006-07-06) reported that the ROK media across the ideological spectrum have raised increasingly pointed questions about the lack of a substantive reaction by the administration to the DPRK missile launches, particularly the lack of any public appearance or even quotes from President Roh Moo-hyun about the tensions that have increased since early Wednesday. A source, who demanded that neither his name or his job affiliation be used in news reports, attempted to address the criticism by detailing what President Roh had done since the DPR Koreans launched their salvo. The lack of a major reaction here, that source said, was a deliberate strategy, decided on after internal administration deliberations. Reporters pressed the source for some direct quotes from President Roh, but neither he nor any Blue House official have agreed to provide any. (return to top)

5. Inter-Korean Relations

JoongAng Ilbo (“SEOUL PONDERS LIMIT ON AID TO THE NORTH”, 2006-07-06) reported that it appears that Seoul will not cancel an inter-Korean ministerial meeting next week; officials argued that they must keep open lines of communications with the DPRK. But one official said yesterday that shipments of 100,000 tons of fertilizer and 500,000 tons of rice, the remainder of assistance promised this year, would be suspended at least temporarily. “There should be no misunderstanding on this,” the official said. “We told the North that actions would be taken if they fired a missile.” Other projects, such as manufacturing at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and tours to the resort area of Mount Kumgang, will probably not be touched. Mr. Lee, the Unification Minister, said the two projects had long-term goals and involved private capital, and so were not appropriate instruments of retaliation.

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6. DPRK-PRC Relations

Yonhap (“CHINA’S VICE FOREIGN MINISTER TO VISIT PYONGYANG NEXT WEEK “, 2006-07-06) reported that a top PRC official, who chairs the six-way talks on the DPRK’s nuclear program, will visit Pyongyang next week to dissuade the state from launching more missiles and coax it back to multilateral nuclear discussions, the PRC’s Foreign Ministry said Friday. Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei is to accompany Hui Liangyu, a PRC vice premier, who will make a five-day trip to the DPRK capital from Monday.

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7. US-Japan Missile Defense Cooperation

Agence France-Presse (“JAPAN WANTS MISSILE DEFENSE ‘AS SOON AS POSSIBLE’: DEFENSE CHIEF”, 2006-07-06) reported that Japan wants to develop a joint missile defense system with the US as quickly as possible following the DPRK’s missile tests, the Japanese defense chief said. “Along with the establishment of a surveillance radar network, we want to work with the United States to build an interception mechanism as soon as possible,” Defense Agency chief Fukushiro Nukaga told parliament.

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8. Taiwan Missile Launch

Reuters (“TAIWAN TO TEST-FIRE MISSILE: REPORT “, 2006-07-06) reported that Taiwan plans to test-fire a missile capable of hitting the PRC, alarming the island’s main ally, the US, a cable news network said on Thursday. The Hsiung Feng III has a range of 600 km (360 miles) and is accurate to within half a meter. That range would put areas along the PRC’s coast from Fuzhou in Fujian Province to Nan’ao in Guangdong within striking distance of the missile, the Web site said.

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9. Japan-Russia Territorial Dispute

Kyodo (“RUSSIAN ENVOY URGES JAPAN TO MAKE CONCESSIONS ON ISLES DISPUTE”, 2006-07-06) reported that Russian Ambassador to Japan Alexander Losyukov said Thursday a longstanding bilateral row over Russian-held islands off Hokkaido will not be resolved unless Japan makes concessions. “Unfortunately, we have not found ways to settle the dispute because even though we urge Japan to explore the possibility of compromise, Tokyo has not shown willingness to do that,” the envoy said.

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10. Japan-ROK Territorial Dispute

Chosun Ilbo (“KOREAN SURVEY SHIP ENDS MISSION NEAR DOKDO “, 2006-07-06) reported that a ROK research vessel has completed a survey in waters near the country’s easternmost Dokdo islets. The ship’s mission to survey the East Sea has raised diplomatic tensions with Japan as it covered waters near Dokdo which Japan claims are part of its exclusive economic zone.

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11. PRC-Japan Chemical Weapons Disposal

The Los Angeles Times (“JAPAN CRITICIZED FOR PACE OF WEAPONS CLEANUP”, 2006-07-06) reported that a PRC official accused Japan of moving too slowly in disposing of its chemical weapons left in the PRC after World War II, as experts began unearthing a cache near a school in the northeastern town of Ningan. PRC and Japanese experts in protective suits removed artillery shells and bombs filled with poisonous gas from a shallow pit about 200 yards from the junior high, where students played in an exercise yard.

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12. Hong Kong Leadership

Agence France-Presse (“FORMER HARDLINE HONG KONG SECURITY CHIEF EYEING LAWMAKER’S POST: SCMP “, 2006-07-06) reported that former hardline security chief Regina Ip, whose reappearance on Hong Kong’s political scene after three years is causing a stir, will run for election to the legislature, a media report says. The one time stalwart of the pro-Beijing government, who has apparently converted to the liberal pro-democracy cause, is also seeking to form her own political party.

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13. PRC Gun Control

BBC News (“CHINA SETS GUN AMNESTY DEADLINE”, 2006-07-06) reported that PRC police officials have issued a deadline for people to hand over any illegal firearms as part of a nationwide crackdown on guns. The Beijing public security bureau warned offenders could face up to two years in jail after 15 July. Anyone who hands in a gun before then will not be prosecuted. Last month, a crime wave in poorer areas was being fuelled by the illegal manufacture and sale of weapons, it said.

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