NAPSNet Daily Report 21 May, 1999

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet Daily Report 21 May, 1999", NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, 1999,


I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

III. Japan

IV. Announcements

I. United States

1. Perry’s Visit to DPRK

The Wall Street Journal (Thomas E. Ricks, “FORMER U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY SUPPORTS ‘CARROT AND STICK’ POLICY IN NORTH KOREA,” Washington, 05/21/99), and the Washington Post (Steven Mufson, “U.S. ENVOYS SEEK TO EASE TENSIONS WITH N. KOREA VISIT,” 05/21/99, A22) reported that former US Defense Secretary William Perry is expected to propose a comprehensive package of incentives to DPRK officials when he visits Pyongyang next week. US officials said that the package would include a lifting a US sanctions and the prospect of full diplomatic recognition. An unnamed senior US administration official stated, “We do believe that there is a potential for a fundamental change in the [US-DPRK] relationship.” The official said that the US wants to discuss the incentives with DPRK officials before making them public. The official added that if the DPRK does not respond positively, there will be “consequences.” In exchange for the incentives, Perry is expected to call on the DPRK to limit its missile production to missiles that carry payloads of fewer than 500 kilograms and that have ranges of no more than 300 kilometers, and to curb its missile exports. The official said that Perry’s review of US policy toward the DPRK considered and rejected several other possible policy options. The policy of “muddling through” with the current relationship was rejected because it tends to lead to occasional crises. Perry also dismissed the idea of trying to undermine the DPRK regime, partly because it would do little to reduce the immediate military threat from the DPRK. The official said that a third option of trying to “reform” the DPRK regime was dismissed as unrealistic, while a fourth option of trying to “buy off ” the DPRK was rejected as politically untenable. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for May 21.]

The New York Times (David E. Sanger, “U.S. AIDE DUE IN NORTH KOREA WITH DEAL TO LIFT SANCTIONS,” Washington, 05/21/99) reported that several current and former administration officials expressed doubts that the DPRK would accept the limits on military programs in former US defense secretary William Perry’s proposal. Perry has met with members of the US Congress regarding his proposals, and on Thursday gave a classified briefing to members of the US Senate. Administration officials have declined to discuss, however, how the US will respond if the DPRK rejects the deal. Donald Gregg, President of the Korea Society and former US ambassador to the ROK, stated, “This has been the hardest part, and I think it is the issue that has delayed the Perry report for so long. To be credible, this plan has to have a plan about how to deal with the North if they turn this down. For a while it looked like the recommendation would be benign neglect. But it is clear, that if we leave them alone, they go back to building nuclear weapons and missiles.” [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for May 21.]

2. Alleged DPRK Coup Attempt

The Associated Press (John Diamond, “EXCERPTS OF CLINTON SECRETS IN BOOK,” Washington, 05/20/99) reported that a new book entitled “Betrayal” by Bill Gertz, a reporter for The Washington Times, quotes a secret dispatch written last August by Larry Robinson, a US State Department official in Seoul, as saying that the DPRK put down a coup attempt in 1995. The dispatch stated, “There is extensive evidence of a major coup attempt by elements of the VI Corps in 1995, which appears to have been crushed only with some difficulty.” Another document quoted in the book, a 1996 U.S. intelligence report classified at the “code word” level, said that the DPRK government had detailed three cases of cannibalism stemming from famine. Unnamed US officials on Thursday confirmed the authenticity of the documents and voiced concern that they had been made public. One anonymous senior administration official said that the White House did not consider any of the material embarrassing but was concerned about risk to intelligence sources and methods. Steve Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists stated, “This is the kind of material that people file lawsuits to obtain after it’s 30 years old.” He added, “These documents carry some of the highest classifications in the U.S. government and it’s absolutely astonishing that they would be published in this way.” US officials said that the Federal Bureau of Investigation has been trying to identify Gertz’s sources for several years. Gertz’s book said that the administration’s policies “so angered some intelligence, defense and foreign policy officials that they responded in the only way they knew how: by disclosing to the press some of the nation’s most secret intelligence.”

3. ROK Economic Recovery

The Wall Street Journal (Michael Schuman and Jane L. Lee, “SOUTH KOREA SEES FIRST QUARTER OF ECONOMIC GROWTH SINCE 1997,” Seoul, 05/21/99) reported that the ROK economy posted its first quarter of growth since 1997. The Bank of Korea said that gross domestic product in the first quarter rose 4.6 percent from the year-earlier period, when the economy contracted 3.6 percent. ROK Minister of Finance and Economy Lee Kyu-sung said in an interview that he held “conservative optimism” on the future of the economy, but warned of continued threats to a full revival.

4. Northeast Asia Free Trade Zone

The Associated Press (Martin Fackler, “JAPAN TRADE OFFICIALS ADVISE PURSUING NORTHEAST ASIAN FREE TRADE ZONE,” Tokyo, 05/21/99) reported a study released Friday by the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) said that Japan should consider forming a free trade zone in Northeast Asia. The report noted that 90 percent of the 134 members of the World Trade Organization were in some sort of regional bloc, but Japan, the ROK, and Hong Kong were not. MITI deputy director Kenji Totoki stated, “Japan should seek to deepen intra-regional exchange and understanding in Northeast Asia, the only area in the world which has shown little interest in regional cohesion or integration.”

5. Bombing of PRC Embassy

Reuters (“U.S. TO BRIEF CHINA WHEN BOMBING REVIEW COMPLETE,” Washington, 05/21/99) reported that White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said Friday that the US will send an envoy to the PRC to brief the government on the bombing of the PRC embassy in Belgrade once a review of the incident is complete. Lockhart stated, “We have committed to the Chinese when a review of this is completed … someone will go over and brief them on it, but I don’t have a timetable or a person.”

6. US Naval Visits to Hong Kong

The Associated Press (“BEIJING BANS NAVY VISITS IN H. KONG,” Hong Kong, 05/21/99) reported that the Hong Kong branch of the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Friday that US warships have been banned from visiting Hong Kong in May and June. The statement said, “Under the current circumstances, it is normal that the central government would not agree to the United States warships coming to Hong Kong. Whether or not such an approval is granted is a matter entirely for China to decide.” Barbara Zigli, a US consulate spokeswoman, said that it was the first time the PRC had banned a US warship from docking in Hong Kong since the territory’s handover from British rule. Zigli stated, “We regret that these mutually beneficial port calls were unable to take place.”

7. PRC Accession to WTO

The Wall Street Journal (John J. Fialka, “CHINA SPY REPORT DIMINISHES CHANCES FOR TRADE AGREEMENT,” Washington, 05/21/99) reported that US Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott predicted Thursday that the US Congress will be reluctant to approve any agreement on the PRC’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in light of the congressional report on PRC espionage. Lott stated, “From what I’ve seen, I don’t think we can trust the Chinese.” He added that while he held some hope for future trade deals with the PRC, the US must “demand some different conduct” from the PRC. “

8. US-PRC Relations

The Los Angeles Times carried an analytical article (Jim Mann, “FEARS OF CHINESE SPYING ONLY DEEPEN U.S. MISTRUST,” Washington, 05/20/99) which said that the controversies over PRC espionage are part of a deeper hardening of US attitudes and policy toward the PRC. An unnamed Pentagon source said that over the last few years, US military planners have conducted more than 20 war games practicing how to handle a conflict with the PRC, more than for any other major power in the world, including Russia. Bob Kagan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated, “China is a red-meat Republican issue now. For Republicans who go off on the hustings, there are few applause lines on foreign policy, but one sure applause line is a denunciation of China and Clinton’s China policy.” Michel Oksenberg of Stanford University, who helped run American policy toward China during the Carter administration, warned that the US must be careful not to lose local support for maintaining its military bases in the ROK and Japan. Oksenberg stated, “The underlying strategy of the United States should be to nurture the triangular relationship among Japan, China and the United States.” However, Arthur Waldron, a China scholar at the University of Pennsylvania, argued, “The best way to deal with China is to create a security structure in Asia based on shared democratic values, one that is robust enough to weather any storm having its origins in China. Japan has to be at the center of such a structure, and Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan and India are all important, too.” Jonathan Pollack of the Rand Corporation said that the 1996 Taiwan crisis “may have been more of a turning point than we thought. The Chinese didn’t know the half of what they did.” Pollack said that within the US military, “colonels and lieutenant colonels and defense intellectuals in uniform, people who had never before focused upon China, began paying attention.” An anonymous US official said that allegations of PRC espionage “have helped create a community of believers in the United States about China as a national security threat, and that will itself have political consequences.” Robert Sutter of the Congressional Research Service argued, “Last year and the year before, the furor died down after a few months. This year, it’s not dying down. Part of the reason is that these scandals fit into people’s partisan political agendas.” Peter Rodman, director of national security affairs for the Nixon Center on Peace and Freedom, stated, “There’s a change in the mood of the country, but that doesn’t mean China is our enemy.” Former US ambassador to the PRC James Lilley said that the PRC has “put their money on increasing their economic base as their first priority. They need stability to achieve this. They need Taiwan to achieve this. They need Middle East oil to achieve this. And the U.S.-Japan security treaty is the prime obstacle to the achievement of their destiny.”

The Los Angeles Times carried an analytical article (Tom Plate, “A RIGHT CHOICE, EVEN IF IT LOOKS WRONG,” Hong Kong, 05/19/99) which said that the Admiral Joseph Prueher was the right person to nominate for the position of US Ambassador to the PRC. The article pointed out that, although Prueher was the US commander in chief of US Pacific forces when the US sent ships to the Taiwan Strait in 1995, since that time, he had cultivated relations with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The article said, “Prueher’s appeal to Beijing’s generals was that of a fellow military man who, like them, was not going to take any nonsense. But at the same time he recognized that China has its own national interests, is prepared to defend them and must be treated with respect.” It quoted an unnamed Chinese official as saying, “Sometimes military men understand the cruelty of war better than anyone. That can make them the best diplomats.” The article concluded, “it’s not silly to suggest that Congress’ failure to confirm Prueher would be a second Belgrade bombing of Sino-U.S. relations–and this one indisputably intentional.”

9. PRC Military Businesses

The Wall Street Journal (Matt Forney, “CHINA’S PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY LEAVES RUBBLE BEHIND IN BUSINESS,” Beijing, 05/21/99) reported that the PRC’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has yet to fully divest itself from its businesses enterprises under a government order of July 22, 1998. James Mulvenon, an expert on PLA business at Rand, stated, “This is a political process, not a legal process. Inevitably, not everybody’s interests are being taken into account.” The article pointed out that analysts had expected the government to offer a one-time payment to the PLA in addition to a large budget increase, but this year’s military budget grew by 12.7 percent, about the same as last year. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for May 21.]

10. US Military Forces in Philippines

The South China Morning Post (Raissa Robles, “PASSIONS FLARE AS PACT ON US FORCES DEBATED,” Manila, 05/21/99) reported that about 500 protesters on Thursday fought with anti-riot police and Philippine Marines outside the Senate complex in Manila, where senators were debating the Visiting Forces Agreement with the US. Senate President Marcelo Fernan said Thursday that he would push for a vote on Monday, and expressed optimism that he could gather the required two-thirds vote. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for May 21.]

11. Philippine President to Visit ROK, Japan

The Associated Press (“PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT TO VISIT JAPAN, S. KOREA IN JUNE,” Manila, 05/21/99) reported that Philippine President Joseph Estrada will visit Japan and the ROK early next month. During his June 2-6 visit to Japan, Estrada will participate in the 5th International Conference on the Future of Asia hosted by the Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Estrada also is scheduled to meet Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko and the Filipino community in Japan before leaving for a June 6-10 state visit to the ROK.

12. Russian Missile Tracking

Reuters (“RUSSIA’S SPACE AGENCY TO HELP TRACK MISSILES,” Moscow, 05/19/99) reported that Russian Strategic Missile Forces spokesman Mikhail Dyuryagin said Wednesday that Russia’s civilian space agency has agreed to help the military track missiles in space and provide early warning of attacks. Dyuryagin stated, “The concept, which must be approved by the president or other supreme state body, stipulates that a single ground control track both military and civilian space objects.”

13. Pakistan Nuclear Deterrence

Reuters (Raja Asghar, “PAKISTAN VOWS TO PRESERVE ITS NUCLEAR DETERRENCE,” Islamabad, 05/19/99) reported that Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said Wednesday that Pakistan would preserve its nuclear deterrence. Sharif stated, “Now nuclear deterrence is indispensable to our security doctrine. We will preserve this deterrence under all circumstances. We shall not compromise on our security and survival. This is a question of life and existence.” He added, “In maintaining the nuclear deterrence, we remain acutely conscious of the risks and responsibilities arising from the possession of nuclear weapons. We are adopting appropriate measures to put in place an effective command and control system.”

14. Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty

Reuters (Stephanie Nebehay, “WESTERN POWERS TRY TO END UN ARMS TALKS DEADLOCK,” Geneva, 05/20/99) reported that US Ambassador Robert Grey, speaking also for Great Britain and France, offered a plan Thursday to the Conference on Disarmament for relaunching negotiations to ban production of fissile material. Under the plan, negotiations would continue “until work is completed without the need for annual reauthorization.” Grey said in a speech, “The sponsors of the proposal cannot believe the international community intends for negotiations to prohibit the production of fissile material for use in nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices to proceed in fits and starts.” He added, “We hope the proposal will soon be the basis for general agreement, so the Conference can proceed with its paramount task: negotiating multilateral arms control and disarmament agreements for which consensus exists.” The proposal also would order the conference chairman to “substantially intensify consultations” on total nuclear disarmament, but would not initiate negotiations on the issue. However, diplomats said that it was not clear whether the proposal would satisfy non-aligned members who have been demanding full-blown negotiations aimed at total nuclear disarmament.

15. US Missile Defense

The New York Times (Elizabeth Becker, “HOUSE APPROVES STAR WARS DEFENSE PROGRAM,” Washington, 05/21/99) reported that the US House of Representatives voted 345-71 on Thursday to commit the government to deploy a missile defense system when it is technologically feasible. An unnamed White House official said that US President Bill Clinton will “in all likelihood will sign it into law.” John Pike, director of space programs for the Federation of American Scientists, argued, “People are not going to launch missiles against the U.S. because they know we will blow them up. We are spending $30 billion a year on nuclear forces to enable us to turn any other country on the planet into a radioactive parking lot on half an hour’s notice. That’s why no country will attack us.” [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for May 21.]

II. Republic of Korea

1. Perry’s Visit to DPRK

JoongAng Ilbo (“PERRY TO CARRY CLINTON’S LETTER TO KIM JONG-IL,” Seoul, 05/21/99) reported that William Perry, US policy coordinator for the DPRK, is likely to meet with DPRK leader Kim Jong-il during his four- day visit to Pyongyang from May 25. Perry will deliver a signed letter from US President Bill Clinton to Kim and gather feedback after explaining the contents of the “Perry Report.” A source in the ROK government said, “Perry’s meeting with NK senior officials, including Kim Yong-nam, chairman of the Supreme People’s Assembly, and Foreign Affairs Minister Paek Nam-sun, has already been agreed upon. In addition, Perry will reportedly have an unofficial meeting with Kim Jong-il, although the schedule is not yet fixed.” Regarding the contents of Clinton’s letter, the New York Times on May 21 cited a US official as saying, “The coordinator will bring a message on the gradual lifting of economic sanctions under the condition that NK suspends the development of long-range ballistic missiles. However, whether NK will accept this proposal is anyone’s guess.” An unnamed ROK public official said, “Perry will not be carrying a special message from President Kim.”

2. Russia-DPRK Relations

JoongAng Ilbo (“RUSSIA MAY RESUME SUPPLYING CRUDE OIL TO NK,” Seoul, 05/21/99) reported that Russia is reportedly going to resume supplying crude oil to the DPRK this year after having stopped service for the past four years. An unnamed diplomatic source said Friday that although Russia is still in deep economic trouble, it is about to send as much as 400,000 to 500,000 tons of crude oil to the DPRK in 1999, which is equal to the amount sent in early 1990. He commented that Russia’s new policy would be announced to DPRK authorities at the Trade and Economic Joint Committee that will be held next month between the two countries. The source added that the late-April visit by the second largest petroleum company in Russia to the DPRK is understood to have had a direct bearing on the new policy. It appears that Russia has recently made some decisions to strengthen its role in the DPRK and on the Korean Peninsula, specialists say.

Korea Times (“KIM BACKS NORMALIZATION OF RUSS-NK TIES,” Seoul, 05/21/99) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung said Thursday that he fully backs the normalization of diplomatic ties between Russia and the DPRK. In an interview with Itar-Tass and Rossiyskaya Gazette at Chong Wa Dae, Kim said he expects the new bilateral treaty between the DPRK and Russia to highlight codes that will encourage DPRK to become a responsible member of the international community. Kim noted that the “old” treaty between Russia and the DPRK described Russia’s obligation militarily and ideologically, but the “new” treaty will focus on helping the DPRK move out of its isolationism. The new Russia-DPRK accord will serve to promote peace and stability in Northeast Asia, he said. Kim said that the ROK and Russia have many potential areas for cooperation, especially in the economic and security areas. He said that he hoped that Russia would play a constructive role in helping the DPRK accept the ROK’s engagement policy.

3. Prisoners of Korean War

JoongAng Ilbo (“RETURNED SOLDIER TESTIFIES ON TWO OTHER POWS STILL IN NK,” Seoul, 05/20/99) reported that a 67-year-old man who was taken prisoner during the Korean War recently escaped from the DPRK bearing information on two other POWs still being held there. According to the ROK Ministry of Defense’s announcement on May 20, Sohn Jae-sul returned home on March 26 this year, after 49 years of captivity in the DPRK. He stated that he saw two other ROK prisoners there. The Defense Ministry said it is now confirming the identity of those two POWs. As of now, the total number of confirmed Korean War prisoners being held in the DPRK is 231. Sohn was captured by the PRC Army in a November, 1950 battle. The ministry added that a retirement ceremony would be held for Sohn on May 21 at the headquarters of the 8th Division of the ROK Army.

4. Hyundai-DPRK Talks

Korea Herald (“HYUNDAI OFFICIALS TO VISIT NK TODAY TO DISCUSS MT. KUMGANG TOUR BUSINESS,” Seoul, 05/22/99) reported that a delegation from the Hyundai Group was scheduled to visit the DPRK Friday to discuss pending issues concerning its Mt. Kumgang tour business, including the latest tour cancellation by Hyundai’s third cruise liner. Leading Hyundai’s working-level group will be Kim Ko-joong, vice president of Hyundai Asan Corporation, which is responsible for the company’s DPRK business. Kim and other Hyundai officials will discuss Hyundai’s DPRK business within the context of inter-Korean economic cooperation, said a senior official at the ROK Unification Ministry. “However, it would only be natural to also seek to iron out the differences between Hyundai and DPRK over the canceled tour by its cruise ship, Pungak, last week,” he said requesting anonymity. “The two sides can exchange views on Hyundai’s compensation for the maritime accident in the Indian Ocean, which the DPRK claims is the cause of the matter.” A Hyundai executive said that the delegates are expecting to receive a formal document guaranteeing Hyundai’s exclusive rights on the development of the DPRK’s scenic mountain from the Asia- Pacific Peace Committee, the DPRK agency responsible for inter-Korean business.

5. ROK Cabinet Reshuffle

Chosun Ilbo (“MASSIVE CABINET RESHUFFLE DUE NEXT WEEK,” Seoul, 05/21/99) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung’s planned cabinet reshuffle could take place as early as Monday, with as many as ten out of a total 17 ministers to be replaced. Of these, a total of four to six out of eight ministers-cum-National Assembly members are likely to be replaced, including the current heads of the following ministries: Justice, Defense, Education, Culture and Tourism, Commerce, Industry and Energy, Construction and Transportation, Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, and Environment. Minister of Finance Lee Kyu-sung is also likely to be replaced, as he has already expressed his intention to resign. Similarly, Kim Mo-im, the minister of Health and Social Welfare, is also likely to step down over widespread dissatisfaction with the newly introduced national pension system.

III. Japan

1. Japanese DPRK Policy

The Asahi Shimbun (“PRIME MINISTER SAYS DIALOGUE WITH DPRK IS NOT GOING WELL,” 05/14/99) reported that Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi told ROK reporters on May 14 that dialogue between the DPRK and Japan is not going well. Obuchi stated, “(Dialogue) issues include missile development, suspected nuclear sites, and abduction of Japanese citizens, but none of these has attained the DPRK’s clear response.” He added, “If our relations with the DPRK are improved, it will be no surprise to think about economic cooperation.”

2. PRC Maritime Activities

The Sankei Shimbun (“JAPANESE GOVERNMENT COMPLAINS PRC SHIPS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE ACTIVE,” 05/21/99) reported that PRC ships, including maritime investigation vessels and navy ships, have been more and more active within Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the East China Sea. Ten such cases have already been reported this year, including a maritime investigation vessel that was spotted east of Okinawa on May 20. A navy battle ship was also discovered by a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3C patrol aircraft between May 18 and 20. The Japanese Defense Agency has already begun to investigate the 12 PRC navy vessels seen off the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands on May 14 as “special cases,” although, according to the agency, the passage of military ships in the high seas itself is not problematic in light of international law. The report said that these ships undoubtedly aim to develop oil wells in East China Sea and to establish the PRC’s control over the islands. The report also said that although there are various views in Japan on the reasons for these PRC activities, including deterrence against the upcoming Diet passage of the New Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation bill and demonstration of its “control” over the islands, no agreement has been reached on their motivation. In response to the Japanese government’s complaint, the PRC government seems to have reiterated, “(These activities) were conducted within our EEZ, and we need no agreement (from the Japanese government),” according to the report.

3. US-Japan Defense Guidelines

The Yomiuri Shimbun (“GUIDELINES FOR JAPAN-US DEFENSE COOPERATION BILL TO PASS ON MAY 24,” 05/20/99) reported that the Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation bill is likely to pass the Upper House plenary session on May 24. The article said that both the Liberal Party and the Clean Government Party (Komeito) agreed to a proposal by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on May 20 to include a question-answer session and voting at the Upper House Special Committee on the Guidelines. The report added that although the Democratic Party and the Communist Party are still cautious about the bill, the above three parties had already agreed on April 27 to exclude an article on ship inspection by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces from the bill.

4. Japanese Intelligence Satellites

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Akinori Uchida, “WASHINGTON ASKS TOKYO TO BUY US SATELLITE, Washington, 05/15/99) and the Asahi Shimbun (Jiji News Agency, “US ASKS JAPAN TO BUY US SATELLITE: PRESSURE ON JAPAN’S OWN DEVELOPMENT,” 05/15/99) reported that, according to sources on May 14, the US government has unofficially been asking Japan to buy a US-made satellite to be used in the Japanese government’s planned launch of four information-gathering satellites. The Japanese government, however, still intends to develop all four satellites by its domestic technology. The Yomiuri Shimbun pointed out, however, that the Japanese government may eventually have to buy some US-made parts because it will find it extremely difficult to quickly develop certain components involving advanced technology. Japanese and US government officials are expected to begin discussions soon on any purchases to be made. The project is expected to cost about 200 billion yen.

IV. Announcements

1. Latest NATO Flash

The following is the table of contents from the latest NATO Nuclear Flash, available at: 1. Delhi Newspaper Says Nuclear Option is Clear. 2. Nuclear Capability For Pakistani Navy Rumored. 3. Russian Advisor Sees ‘Early Use’ of Nuclear Weapon. 4. NATO Kosovo Operations May Effect Chinese Policy. 5. Statement by the New Agenda at NPT PREPCOM Meeting. 6. NATO Nuclear Strategy Review, No First Use, Pre-emptive Counter-Proliferation. 7. European Union, Including two Nuclear Powers, Aim at Joint Defense Policy by 2000. 8. Chinese Army Paper Reviews NATO’s Strategy 9. Russians Debate NATO Expansion and The Nuclear Reductions Process. 10. Remarks by Ambassador Thomas Graham to Cleveland Conference.

2. In Memoriam It is with great sadness that we announce the death of a good friend and contributor to NAPSNet, Dr. Maxim Tarasenko. Maxim died in a car accident in Moscow on May 15, 1999. His colleagues have published a testimonial to Maxim at

Maxim was the leading Russian analyst of space policy issues. We at the Nautilus Institute first met him at a workshop in 1994 sponsored by the Nautilus Institute in Monterey on space booster rockets and ballistic missile issues. There, he contributed a profound paper on Russian aspects of this topic from which we all learned a great deal.

After the workshop, he traveled to Berkeley where he stayed at our home and visited our office. We discovered that he had never seen Dr. Strangelove. We rushed up to the nearest video store. We will never forget his mirth at seeing this Cold War classic on a topic so central to his life work. He was also a very gentle man at ease with children. He was constantly amazed at the relative ease with which we in the United States obtain information, including information about his own country. Indeed, he was nearly charged with espionage and jailed in Russia after he published a book on Russian space policy using open source literature obtained from the United States during one of his visits here.

Over the years, we kept in touch with Dr. Tarasenko and often benefited from his guidance on questions of fact or interpretation on space policy issues, and also in the Russian contribution to the Daily Report. He will be much missed and his passing is a blow to the global movement for peace and security on Earth and in space. May he rest in peace.

Peter Hayes, Co-Director, Nautilus Institute

The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are available to all recipients. For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather information for this report, or for more information on web sites with related information, see the collection of other NAPSNet resources.
We invite you to reply to today’s report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network.

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Wade L. Huntley:
Berkeley, California, United States

Lee Dong-young:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Chunsi Wu:
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

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