CONTENTS
1. US Anti-terror Defense Spending
2. US-Philippines Anti-terror
3. US-ROK Sunshine Policy
4. DPRK-US Diplomatic Relations
5. PRC-US Relations
6. US Domestic View of Nuclear Reduction
II. Republic of Korea 1. US–ROK Relations
2. DPRK Diplomacy
3. US–DPRK Relations
4. ROK–US Relations
5. ROK Air Force Project
I. United States
1. US Anti-terror Defense Spending
The Wall Street Journal (Greg Jaffe, “BUSH SEEKS FURTHER DEFENSE FUNDS OF $8.5 BILLION TO COVER TERROR WAR,” Washington, 02/14/02) reported that the Bush administration is expected to ask Congress for as much as US$8.5 billion extra this year to cover the costs of the war in Afghanistan and the Pentagon’s share of homeland security, according to senior US officials. The emergency defense money would be spent in the last five months of the current fiscal year, which ends September 30. It comes on top of the US$17.4 billion Congress gave the Pentagon shortly after the September 11 terrorist attacks to cover the costs of the war in Afghanistan and to provide for additional homeland security, and it is separate from the $379 billion budget request for fiscal 2003 that the Bush administration sent to Congress earlier this month. The Pentagon has thus far spent about US$9.5 billion of the $17.4 billion it received in September. Pentagon officials expect the remainder of that money to run dry by the end of May. The $8.5 billion figure is based on the Pentagon’s spending of $985 million a month to cover the costs of the war in Afghanistan and about $700 million a month on homeland- security duties that include providing National Guard troops to US airports and flying fighter jets over some major US cities [This article also appeared in the US State Department’s Early Bird Report for February 14, 2002.]
2. US-Philippines Anti-terror
Agence France-Presse (“BULK OF US TROOPS EXPECTED IN PHILIPPINES NEXT WEEK,” 02/14/02) reported that more than 400 US troops are to arrive in Zamboanga next week, making up the bulk of 660 soldiers assigned to a joint anti-terror action, a Filipino officer said. The bulk of the US force is expected Monday, and some would visit the Abu Sayyaf Muslim guerrilla stronghold of Basilan island the following day, Lieutenant General Roy Cimatu announced. This will be the largest deployment of US forces abroad since the ongoing US-led campaign in Afghanistan. About 200 US troops, primarily logistics and communications personnel, are already in Zamboanga. The US troops, including 160 Special Forces members, are to engage in six months of joint exercises with their Filipino counterparts in three camps in Zamboanga as well as one area of Basilan. Although the US forces would not directly take part in combat, they are allowed to fire back when attacked.
3. US-ROK Sunshine Policy
Agence France-Presse (“BUSH TO BACK SOUTH KOREA’S SUNSHINE POLICY OVER NORTH,” 02/14/02) reported that US President George W. Bush is set to voice his support for the ROK’s policy of engaging the DPRK to entice it out of its shell, a senior ROK official said. Bush’s backing will come during his two-day visit to Seoul from February 19 and despite his condemnation earlier this year of the DPRK as part of an “axis of evil” with Iraq and Iran. Since then, the US and the ROK have stepped up contacts in a bid to narrow differences over how to handle the DPRK regime ahead of Bush’s visit. “Firstly, the summit is to secure peace and stability on the Korean peninsula by reaffirming the strong alliance between the two countries,” the unidentified official said. “Secondly, we expect President Bush to express his strong support to the engagement policy (of Kim Dae-Jung) toward the North,” he said. After the summit, the two presidents will express their wish to resume dialogue with the DPRK, he added. “Thirdly, the summit will provide an opportunity to reaffirm the South Korean and US will to make joint efforts to cope with the threats of proliferation of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction,” he said. “The two leaders will reaffirm their common views about the threats of proliferation of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and missiles and strongly urge the North to resume talks to resolve this issue at an early date,” he said.
4. DPRK-US Diplomatic Relations
The New York Times (Michael R. Gordon, “BUSH’S HARD LINE WITH NORTH KOREA,” Washington, 02/14/02) carried an analytical article on US President George W. Bush’s harsh stance toward the DPRK. The article stated that Bush’s description of the DPRK as part of an “axis of evil” has already distressed a long-time ally: the ROK. According to former US officials who have negotiated with the DPRK have said that the administration’s strategy is a virtual prescription for deadlock and that the DPRK, while difficult negotiating partners, have kept to previous commitments. “I think the Bush administration has a visceral as well as an intellectual problem with negotiating with countries that are reprehensible in their domestic and international behavior,” said Robert L. Gallucci, who negotiated the accord to freeze the DPRK’s nuclear program in 1994. “The administration says it is willing to meet anytime and anywhere with the North Koreans. But what they mean is that they are prepared to meet to accept North Korea’s surrender on the points at issue.” Kurt Campbell senior Pentagon official during the Clinton administration predicted, “The Bush administration’s strategy in Seoul will be to embrace South Korea and hold North Korea at arm’s distance. The political climate in Seoul will make that most challenging.”
5. PRC-US Relations
Reuters (Randall Mikkelsen, “BUSH AIMS TO STEADY ROCKY TIES WITH CHINA,” Washington, 02/14/02) reported that US President George W. Bush will visit Beijing next Thursday and Friday. Bush and PRC President Jiang Zemin will confront issues such as weapons proliferation, human rights, Taiwan and the US missile defence program. However, administration officials and outside experts express that and are unlikely to make any breakthroughs. “We do not see major breakthroughs as possible,” said Minxin Pei, PRC analyst for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The key development that is likely to occur at the Beijing summit is a declaration by both presidents … that reaffirms the nature of their relationship.” Heritage Foundation China expert John Tkacik commented on Bush’s trip, “It will be short, but it probably will not be very sweet.”
6. US Domestic View of Nuclear Reduction
The Associated Press (Matt Kelley, “DEMOCRATS FAULT BUSH PLAN TO REDUCE ACTIVE NUCLEAR WARHEADS, SAY WEAPONS SHOULD BE DESTROYED,” Washington, 02/14/02) and Reuters (Charles Aldinger, “DEMOCRATIC SENATORS ATTACK BUSH PLAN ON NUCLEAR CUTS,” Washington, 02/14/02) reported that at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, US democratic senators criticized President George W. Bush’s plans to cut the number of readily available nuclear warheads as merely “rearranging the furniture” in the US nuclear arsenal. Committee chairman and democratic Senator Carl Levin stated, “Just as Enron couldn’t make its debts disappear by moving them from one set of books to another, we are not going to make our nuclear warheads go away by moving them from launchers to warehouses.” Bush has said he wants to reduce the number of warheads ready for immediate use by two-thirds, from the current 7,000 to between 1,700 and 2,200 by 2012. Most of the remaining warheads would be stored and would take months or years to be prepared for launch, said Douglas Feith, the top Pentagon arms control official. Democrats on the panel said warheads should be destroyed, not just stored. “This approach (storing U.S. warheads) surely will make it highly unlikely that Russia will destroy its nuclear warheads. If we store our nuclear weapons, Russia is likely to follow suit. It’s warehoused terror rather than immediate terror,” Levin said. Feith said the US needs to keep a stockpile of warheads to give the nation flexibility to respond to future threats. Russian officials have criticized the plan to cut the US nuclear arsenal by putting warheads in reserve rather than destroying them. The US does not have facilities to make new warheads, but Russia is now making new nuclear weapons, Feith said. “It is not a big deal for Russia to destroy a warhead, because they could immediately replace it with a new warhead,” he said.
II. Republic of Korea
1. US–ROK Relations
The Korea Herald (Shin Yong-bae, “US PRESIDENT UNDER PRESSURE TO EASE STANCE ON PYEONGYANG,” Seoul, 02/14/02) reported that prior to his visit to Japan, ROK and the PRC next week, US President George W. Bush is under growing pressure at home and abroad to modify his stance on DPRK. Some ROK lawmakers and major civic groups have already accused Bush of heightening tension on the peninsula by unleashing a series of hard-line statements against the DPRK. In Washington, Senate majority leader Tom Daschle declared that Bush was wrong to label DPRK, Iran and Iraq an “axis of evil,” saying his phrase has had negative repercussions. “I think we’ve got to be very careful with the rhetoric of that kind,” Daschle. It is the first time that a US senate leader has publicly voiced criticism of Bush’s State of the Union address earlir this month, in which the US president slapped the “evil axis” label on DPRK, Iran and Iraq.
2. DPRK Diplomacy
Joongang Ilbo (Lee Young-jong. “PYONGYANG IS FLIRTING WITH ASIAN NEIGHBORS,” Seoul, 02/14/02) reported that the DPRK is seeking to strengthen its ties with the PRC and Russia, and is sending a signal of reconciliation to Japan. DPRK leader Kim Jong-il met Wu Donghe, the new PRC ambassador to the DPRK, on Sunday and emphasized the importance of reinforcing amicable relations between the two countries. Kim also met Konstantin Pulikov-sky, a Russian official, on Monday and Tuesday in Pyongyang. “North Korea must have shared its opinions with China and Russia about peninsular affairs after US President George W. Bush’s remark about the ‘axis of evil,'” a source from the ROK Foreign Ministry said. “Pyongyang is considering playing the PRC and Russia cards.” While strengthening bonds with PRC and Russia, the DPRK is also trying to ease tensions with Japan. It repatriated Takashi Sugishima, 62, a former reporter of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, after more than two years of detention.
3. US–DPRK Relations
Joongang Ilbo (Kim Jin, “US HOPES TO DRAW NORTH FROM ISOLATION, POWELL SAYS,” Washington, 02/14/02) reported that the US government has no plan to go to war against the DPRK, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Tuesday. During his visit to Seoul next week, Bush “will show his support for the policies of the South that are encouraging the North to come out of its isolation,” Powell explained. In testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, Powell said that the US hopes to control DPRK’s production of weapons of mass destruction. To that end, he said that the US pressure on the DPRK will continue.
4. ROK–US Relations
Joongang Ilbo (Oh Young-hwan, “SEOUL SEEKS MORE FREQUENT CONTACT WITH US ON DEFENSE, FOREIGN POLICY,” Seoul, 02/14/02) reported that the ROK hopes to establish regular senior-level talks with the US on foreign affairs and defense separate from an annual security meeting, a government official said Wednesday. The official said that the move is part of a plan to strengthen the alliance between the US and the ROK, which will be the central focus of the February 20 summit meeting in the ROK between US President George W. Bush and President Kim Dae-jung. The ROK and the US will hold the Security Consultative Meeting yearly. “We will emphasize that South Korea and the United States are global partners that share common values like democracy, market economies, and respect for human rights,” the official said. He expressed optimism that the US would agree to the talks.
5. ROK Air Force Project
The Koreaherald (Hwang Jang-jin, “SEOUL MAY BE WOOING US WITH FAVORS: PUNDITS,” Seoul, 02/14/02) reported that following the ROK’s decisions last week to push ahead with its multi-billion dollar fighter jet project and approve US Forces Korea (USFK)’s plan to build apartments on the Yongsan military base, allegations are growing that the ROK hopes to use the two issues to secure concessions from the US on its DPRK policy. The two decisions were announced last Friday at a time when the ROK is still struggling to cope with new tension between US and DPRK, stirred up by US President George Bush’s “axis of evil” remarks late last month. Some analysts and lawmakers speculate that during his trip, Bush may put pressure on ROK to purchase Boeing’s F-15 jet fighters. Analysts allege that the ROK is leaning toward selecting the US aircraft maker in an effort to win Bush’s endorsement for its “sunshine policy” toward the DPRK. “Bowing to US pressure, the government is going to make the F-X project a gift for President Bush on his visit to Korea,” said Grand National Party representative Kang Chang-sung.
The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are available to all recipients. For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather information for this report, or for more information on web sites with related information, see the collection of other NAPSNet resources.
We invite you to reply to today’s report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network.
Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
BK21 The Education and Research Corps for East Asian Studies
Department of Political Science, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia
Brandon Yu: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States
Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States
Kim Young-soo: yskim328@hotmail.com
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Hibiki Yamaguchi: hibikiy84@hotmail.com
Tokyo, Japan
Saiko Iwata: saiko@akira.ne.jp
Tokyo, Japan
Hiroya Takagi: hiroya_takagi@hotmail.com
Tokyo, Japan
Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation
Wu Chunsi: cswu@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
John McKay: John.McKay@adm.monash.edu.au< /a>
Clayton, Australia