NAPSNet Daily Report 11 January, 1999

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet Daily Report 11 January, 1999", NAPSNet Daily Report, January 11, 1999, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-daily-report/napsnet-daily-report-11-january-1999/

IN TODAY’S REPORT:

I. United States

II. Announcements

I. United States

1. DPRK Underground Construction

The Associated Press (“N.KOREA RENEWS DEMAND FOR MONEY FOR NUCLEAR INSPECTION,” Seoul, 01/11/99) reported that an unidentified DPRK Foreign Ministry official said in a report carried by the official Korea Central News Agency on Monday that the DPRK will not allow US inspection of a suspected nuclear weapons site unless it is given US$300 million in compensation. The official stated, “Our demand for compensation is very just because once we open an object which is very sensitive in view of our national security … we cannot use it for its original purpose.” He added that if the US cannot pay in cash, it “may grant the DPRK economic benefits tantamount to the amount in any appropriate form.”

2. ROK Policy toward DPRK

The Associated Press (“NKOREA, US IN NUKE INSPECTION FIGHT,” Seoul, 01/11/99) reported that ROK Foreign Minister Hong Soon-young said Monday that closer ties between the US and the DPRK would help improve ROK- DPRK relations. Hong said that better relations between the US and the DPRK would help open up the DPRK’s society.

Agence France-Presse (“SOUTH USES SOFT DIPLOMACY TO CALM NORTH,” Seoul, 01/11/99) reported that the ROK is quietly pushing the US and Japan to take a softer stance toward the DPRK to avoid a new nuclear crisis on the peninsula. ROK officials called for a policy of gradual engagement with the DPRK during a visit by Japanese Defense Agency chief Hosei Norota, and are expected to reiterate the policy during a visit this week by US Defense Secretary William Cohen. [Ed. note: This article appeared in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for January 11.]

3. Opening of DPRK Airspace

Reuters (“S.KOREA TO ASK N.KOREA TO OPEN AIR SPACE FURTHER,” Seoul, 01/11/99) reported that the Tuesday edition of the Korea Times said that the ROK will ask the DPRK in coming months to open its air space further to foreign airlines to shorten routes to the US and Europe. The article quoted a senior aviation official at the ROK Construction and Transportation Ministry as saying, “I believe that we will be able to make a proposal to the effect along with the International Civil Aviation Organization, the UN-affiliated governing body of the world’s aviation, to the North in the first half of this year, possibly in April.”

4. US-ROK Security Talks

Reuters (“U.S.-SOUTH KOREA SECURITY TALKS SET FOR JAN. 14-15,” Seoul, 01/09/99) reported that the ROK defense ministry said Saturday that the US and the ROK will hold the annual Military Committee Meeting and the Security Consultative Meeting in Seoul from January 14 to 15. US Defense Secretary William Cohen will arrive in Seoul Thursday for the meeting with ROK officials, including Defense Minister Cheon Yong-taek. An ROK defense ministry statement said that the two sides would exchange views on the DPRK military threat. It added that the two sides would also discuss realistic military cooperation in consideration of the ROK’s economic difficulties.

5. US Defense Secretary’s Asian Trip

The Washington Times (Willis Witter, “AGENDA TO FOCUS ON NORTH KOREA,” Tokyo, 11/10/99, 8) reported that US Defense Secretary William Cohen left Sunday for a six-day visit to Japan and the ROK. DPRK issues are expected to dominate Cohen’s agenda. Japanese implementation of the new guidelines for military cooperation with the US and the status of US forces on Okinawa will also be discussed. Christopher Johnstone, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, stated, “Clearly the U.S. and Japan share broadly consistent interests on the Korean peninsula. But there are subtle differences in priorities. Of more immediate concern to many Japanese, particularly in the defense community, is [the] threat of North Korean missiles.” The DPRK this week on its official Internet site denounced the US, Japan, and the ROK for operating a “criminal triangular military alliance” and for attempting to “ignite a second war of aggression” on the peninsula. [Ed. note: This article appeared in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for January 11.]

6. Japanese Satellite Development

Reuters (Charles Aldinger, “U.S. READY TO HELP JAPAN WITH SATELLITES — COHEN,” Tokyo, 01/11/98) reported that US Defense Secretary William Cohen said Monday that the US was prepared to help Japan develop its planned space satellite program. He added, however, “The Japanese government will obviously have to make a decision on whether they wish to try and develop their own separate system” or buy foreign satellite technology. “In any event, if they decide to go forward, we will try to help in ways in which we can perhaps share some of our own technology or be of assistance in ways that they would find helpful.” Cohen is also scheduled to discuss the theater missile defense (TMD) system when he meets with Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and Defense Minister Hosei Norota. He stated, “We are developing a number of programs and we think it would be helpful to Japan and to us if we can have some cooperative effort as far as the research and development of a TMD program is concerned.”

7. Taiwanese Participation in TMD

The Associated Press (“CHINA CAUTIONS U.S. ON MISSILE DEFENSE FOR TAIWAN – REPORT,” Taipei, 01/11/99) reported that the Hong Kong-based Wen Wei Po newspaper said Monday that the PRC has warned the US that including Taiwan in a regional missile defense system would be a “wrong act” that could compel the PRC to take military action. The paper said that adding Taiwan into the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system would seriously challenge the PRC’s claim of sovereignty over the island. It quoted an unidentified high-level PRC official as saying that the PRC could be forced to respond by “making appropriate military adjustments to protect national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Meanwhile, Taiwan Deputy Defense Minister Wang Wen-hsien said on Monday that the military remains “flexible” over whether to pursue participation in the TMD. The Liberty Times newspaper in Taiwan also said Monday that a Taiwan Defense Ministry task force endorsed the TMD program in a recent report.

8. Taiwanese Diplomacy

Reuters (“TAIWAN TO WOO CARIBBEAN, AFRICAN ALLIES,” Taipei, 01/08/99) reported that Taiwanese officials said that Premier Vincent Siew and a big business and trade mission would leave for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Belize on a 10-day official visit. They added that separately, Chiang Pin-kung, chairman of the cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development, would leave for the West African countries of Gambia and Senegal. Both Siew and Chiang were scheduled to return to Taiwan on January 18.

9. Alleged US Technology Transfers to PRC

The Associated Press (“AMBASSADOR DENIES CHINA GAINED HIGH-TECH SECRETS,” Washington, 01/08/99) reported that PRC Ambassador to the US Li Zhaoxing in a National Press Club speech on Friday denounced a congressional report alleging that the PRC gained high-tech secrets with deals to launch US satellites. Li said that some people in the US “are trying to find a new enemy for America, and they are looking at China.” He added that the idea that the PRC would steal US secrets is “groundless and irresponsible” and an insult to Chinese scientists. Li stated, “There was no need for China to steal knowledge from America … nor the possibility.” He added that Chinese scientists do not need to rely on “American wisdom and strength.” He said that US citizens have the freedom to make any accusation they want, “but to pull another country and its scientists through the mud is quite another matter.”

10. US Intelligence Sharing with PRC

The Associated Press (Barry Schweid, “KISSINGER OFFERED HELP TO CHINA,” Washington. 11/09/99) and the Los Angeles Times (Jim Mann, Tyler Marshall, “IN THE COLD WAR TRENCHES WITH KISSINGER AND HIS ADVERSARIES,” Washington, 01/09/99) reported that, according to transcripts of top-secret talks held by former US National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the early 1970s, Kissinger secretly offered US information on the Soviet Union to the PRC. In 1971 Kissinger told PRC ambassador to the UN Huang Hua, “We would be prepared, at your request, through whatever sources you wish, to give you whatever information we have about the disposition of Soviet forces” deployed during the war that year between India and Pakistan. He also told PRC Chairman Mao Zedong in November 1973, “There are no secrets with (you about) the Soviet Union. There is nothing we are doing with the Soviet Union that you do not know.” Briefing PRC Premier Chou En-lai on November 10, 1973, Kissinger said it was in the interests of the US to prevent a Soviet nuclear attack on the PRC. He stated, “[The Soviets] want us to accept the desirability of destroying China’s nuclear capability.” He offered the PRC “ideas on how to lessen the vulnerability of your forces and how to increase the warning time” before a Soviet attack. Three days later, Kissinger told Chou, “Any help we would give you in our mutual interest should be in a form that is not easily recognizable. With respect to missile launches, we have a very good system of satellites, which give us early warning. The problem is to get that to you rapidly. We would be prepared to establish a hot line between our satellites and Beijing by which we could transmit information to you in a matter of minutes.” The transcripts are being published by the National Security Archive of George Washington University, which obtained them through freedom-of- information requests and other means.

11. US-Indian Nuclear Talks

Reuters (“U.S. ENVOY SEES PROGRESS IN NUKE TALKS WITH INDIA,” Jaipur, 01/09/99) reported that US Ambassador to India Richard Celeste said Saturday that US-Indian nuclear talks are likely to yield an understanding between the two nations. Celeste stated, “My hope and expectation is that it will lead to what Mr. Jaswant Singh calls a harmonization of views … (and) I hope in my view in the not so distant future.” Regarding sanctions imposed by the US for India’s nuclear tests last year, Celeste stated, “I would hope that down the line the sanctions are completely lifted.”

12. US Nuclear Policy

The Los Angeles Times carried an opinion article by Admiral Stansfield Turner, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (“POST-COLD WAR WORLD DEMANDS NEW WAYS TO DEAL WITH WARHEADS,” 01/11/99) which said that the Russian Duma’s delay in ratifying the START II nuclear arms control treaty may help the US to recognize the need for a new approach towards nuclear weapons. The author argued that, given the limited amount of the reductions and the long delay in implementing them, the START II treaty would make little real difference in reducing the immediate danger from Russian nuclear weapons. He added that the primary danger today is from “accidental firing of Russian nuclear weapons due to the physical deterioration of Russia’s nuclear plant or the lack of adequate command and control.” Therefore, he argued, “Our immediate objective should be to get Russia’s nuclear arsenal as far from hair-trigger alert as possible.” He called for three steps to accomplish this goal: 1) abandon the US doctrine of launch-on-warning; 2) adopt a no-first use policy; and 3) objectively explore an antiballistic missile defense system. He criticized the US for keeping a large nuclear arsenal, saying “we are, in effect, telling the world that we need the right to use a nuclear arsenal, which will still number 10,000 warheads in 2007, but that no additional nation should have even a small number of them.” He added, “U.S. and Russian arsenals must be reduced significantly and quickly in order to persuade the world we are serious about arresting proliferation.” He also called for placing some nuclear warheads “in strategic escrow” by removing them from their missiles. He added, “Eventually, all nuclear warheads in the world could be in escrow under international observation.” He concluded, “If President Clinton were to renounce our plans to respond under attack and to use nuclear weapons first and to initiate strategic escrow, under his authorities as commander in chief, he could, without the least risk to our nation’s security, lay the foundation for a legacy of immense importance to all humankind.”

13. US Missile Defense

The Philadelphia Inquirer (Richard Parker, “MISSILE DEFENSE DELAY MAY LEAVE U.S. EXPOSED,” Washington, 01/11/99) reported that US Defense Department officials have concluded that it will take up to two years longer than expected to build a system to protect against ballistic missile attack. Army General Henry Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week, “Given the success rate so far, it appears we’re going to have to continue with the [research and development].” Paul Wolfowitz, a former Reagan defense official who served on a panel that recently assessed missile threats, said that the delay “means you could have a threat before the United States is prepared to deal with it. We should have been treating missile defense as a matter of highest priority. If we’d done that, we wouldn’t be in this position right now.” Senator Thad Cochran R., Miss., chairman of the Governmental Affairs subcommittee on international security, said that defense officials told him the delay would be at least one year. An anonymous senior Democratic Senate aide said the delay could be two years. Former CIA director James Woolsey said that the delay could leave the US undefended against a ballistic missile attack from the DPRK for a year or two. He argued, “The administration has been very slow to face this issue. They have not been willing to look at what’s going on in the outside world.” An unnamed senior intelligence official said government estimates predicted that the DPRK could have a missile capable of striking the US by about 2003.

II. Announcements

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
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Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Wade L. Huntley: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Lee Dong-young: UNPOL@netsgo.com
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation

Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China


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