CONTENTS
1. ROK Missile Developments
2. Japan Crisis Legislation and Mystery Ship
3. PRC Concern Japanese Military Expansion
4. PRC-Pakistan Relations
5. PRC-Russia Naval Contract
6. Taiwan-US Relations
II. Republic of Korea 1. DPRK Diplomatic Outlook
2. ROK Diplomatic Outlook
3. ROK Food Aid to DPRK
4. Joint Celebration for Lunar New Year
5. ROK-Vietnam Weapons Modernization
I. United States
1. ROK Missile Developments
Agence France-Presse (“SOUTH KOREA’S NEW US MISSILES PUT MOST OF NORTH KOREA WITHIN RANGE,” 01/04/02) reported that the ROK will deploy new surface-to-surface US missiles over the next two years which would put most of the DPRK’s soil within range. The ROK defense ministry announced that it had signed a contract with Lockheed Martin last month to buy 111 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) Block IA units. Ministry spokesman Yoon Won-jae stated, “The new US missiles to be fully deployed here by 2004 mark the first tangible result of the successful US-South Korean talks on extending Seoul’s missile range. It will be our first 300- kilometer-range (186 miles) missile,” Yoon said. The ministry said it agreed to pay Lockheed Martin USD$304 million for the missiles and 29 multiple rocket launchers. “The new US missiles, if deployed, would effectively deter the present threat from North Korean Scud missiles,” an unnamed defense ministry source said.
2. Japan Crisis Legislation and Mystery Ship
Reuters (“JAPANESE LEADER SAYS PARLIAMENT TO DEBATE SECURITY ISSUES BY MASAYUKI KITANO,” Tokyo, 01/04/02) reported that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said on Friday that he wanted parliament to debate legal measures including controversial “crisis legislation,” in order to protect citizens from “groups” that may try to inflict harm. Koizumi added that Japan would examine whether actions that led to the sinking of a suspected DPRK ship last month were proper. “It has been pointed out that there may have been problems with regard to the responses related to the incident. The government will study whether there are any flaws in legal areas, and whether there were any oversights in the on-site response,” Koizumi stated at a news conference. Koizumi also said that the unidentified ship had acted “strangely” and had “mysterious intentions and capabilities,” which highlights the need for political debate on security issues including “crisis legislation.” The government has started to draft so- called “crisis legislation,” which would broaden the ability of Japan’s military to act in case of a direct attack on Japan and could limit the rights of citizens in certain circumstances.
3. PRC Concern Japanese Military Expansion
Agence France Presse (“CHINA EXPRESSES CONCERNS OVER JAPAN’S GROWING MILITARY MIGHT,” 01/01/02) reported that the PRC newspaper People’s Liberation Army Daily carried an editorial that expressed concerns that Japan’s recent sinking of a suspected DPRK vessel reflected Japan’s “growing ambition to become a global military power.” The December 22 sinking of the mystery ship outside of Japan’s territorial waters and within PRC’s exclusive economic zone was “a precedent for Japan in the post-World War II period,” it said. The editorial continued, “In order to realize the dream of becoming a regional military power and to increase and expand its self-defense forces into the high seas, Japan could well continue to create similar incidents in the future. Japan will cast off its constitution and related legal shackles … and while relying on the Japan-US military alliance, seek to realize its goal of becoming a big political power.” Following the incident, the PRC’s foreign ministry formally expressed concern over Japan’s use of military force in the waters of the East China Sea, and expressed sorrow at the deaths of up to 15 crew members. The PRC also made further inquiries with the Japanese government over the incident, and urged Japan to maintain frequent consultations on new developments.
4. PRC-Pakistan Relations
The Associated Press (“PAKISTAN: CHINA WILL SUPPORT US IN ALL EVENTUALITIES,” Katmandu, 01/04/02), Reuters (“PAKISTAN SAYS CHINA READY TO GIVE IT SUPPORT,” Katmandu, 01/04/02) and Agence France-Presse (“CHINA FULLY BEHIND PAKISTAN IN ‘POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION,'” 01/04/02) reported that PRC Prime Minister Zhu Rongji met with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf for three hours on January 4 in Beijing and assured him of the PRC’s “principled and everlasting support.” An official Pakistani statement read that Zhu “expressed his apprehension at the potentially volatile situation that has arisen due to the assembling of Indian forces close to the Pakistani border” and “appreciated the restraint exercised by Pakistan.” The statement added Zhu “complimented President Musharraf for his diplomatic vision, leadership and quality of statemanship that he has demonstrated in the handling of the current crisis” and “in a gesture of extreme warmth embraced Musharraf” as he left Beijing.
Agence France Presse (“MUSHARRAF HEADS FOR SOUTH ASIA SUMMIT, CHINA URGES MAXIMUM RESTRAINT,” 01/04/02) reported that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf left Beijing for a South Asia summit in Nepal after talks during which the PRC urged India and Pakistan to exercise “maximum restraint.” PRC Prime Minister Zhu Rongji told Musharraf that “it is in the fundamental interests of both Pakistan and India that the two countries keep maximum restraint and safeguard peace and stability in the south Asian region.” Zhu welcomed “Pakistan’s active participation in international cooperation on combating terrorism” and its “adherence to seeking dialogue and peace under the current tension between Pakistan and India.”
5. PRC-Russia Naval Contract
Agence France-Presse (“CONTRACT SIGNED BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA FOR TWO DESTROYERS,” 01/04/02) reported that Russia and the PRC signed a contract for two destroyers for the PRC navy. Russian export company Rossoboronexport stated that the contract “is the latest indication of the successful development of technical and military cooperation between Russia and China.” Rossoboronexport did not specify the price for the destroyers, but according to the Russian military news agency AVN, the contract is estimated at USD$1 billion. The destroyers will be built by the Severnaya Verf naval yards in Saint Petersburg, and are to be delivered by 2005. Also, Russia is to provide the PRC with S-300 PMU anti-missile batteries, in a contract worth USD$400 million. The cost of the missiles will be deducted from Russia’s debt to the PRC, which is currently at USD$1.42 billion.
6. Taiwan-US Relations
Agence France-Presse (“US DELEGATION VISITS TAIWAN TO ASSESS RELATIONS WITH CHINA,” Taipei, 01/04/02) reported that a US delegation arrived in Taipei for discussions on Taiwan’s security and economic links with the PRC following the two countries’ accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Reports said the delegates were scheduled for a closed-door briefing with Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wu Shih-wen. The delegation is also expected to meet with Taiwan President Chen Shui- bian, Vice President Annette Lu, Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao and other high- ranking officials during their visit.
II. Republic of Korea
1. DPRK Diplomatic Outlook
Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, “NUCLEAR INSPECTION TO BECOME KEY ISSUE THIS YEAR,” Seoul, 01/03/02) carried an analytical article that stated that relations between the DPRK and the US are likely to see progress in the new year, as the DPRK is expected to agree to more nuclear inspections this year. The DPRK’s acceptance of nuclear inspection will be the biggest determining factor for future DPRK-US relations. The article also concluded that DPRK-Japan relations are likely to remain stalled due to Japan’s probe into the Chongryon credit union scandal last November and the ROK’s suspension of its search for missing Japanese nationals.
2. ROK Diplomatic Outlook
The Korea Herald (Kim Ji-ho, “U.S.-N.K. TALKS, KIM JUNG-IL’S VISIT SEOUL’S TOP GOAL,” Seoul, 01/03/02) reported that the ROK’s top policymakers vowed yesterday to help revive dialogue between the DPRK and the US and help facilitate Kim Jong-il’s promised visit to Seoul. “Chairman Kim (Jong-il)’s return visit will reconfirm the agreement on peaceful coexistence, which was made by the leaders from the two Koreas at their summit, to the international community and people in both sides,” said Hong.
3. ROK Food Aid to DPRK
Chosun Ilbo (Kim In-gu, “GOVERNMANET TO GIVE DPRK 100,000 TONS OF MAIZE,” Seoul, 01/03/02) reported that the ROK Ministry of Unification announced Thursday that the government will deliver some 100,000 tons of maize in food aid to the DPRK through the World Food Program (WFP) starting at the end of February. A source confirmed that the WFP and the ROK will conclude discussions on the procedure of delivery and calculate the cost. ROK Unification Minister Hong Soon-young promised to provide 100,000 tons of maize to the DPRK free of charge through WFP at a press conference at the end of last year.
4. Joint Celebration for Lunar New Year
Joongang Ilbo (Ser Myo-ja, “ACTIVISTS PLAN JOINT GATHERING FOR LUNAR NEW YEAR IN DPRK,” Seoul, 01/03/02) reported ROK and DPRK organizations have agreed to hold a joint celebration of the Lunar New Year’s Day in February. The eight activist delegates returned to Seoul after 3 days in the DPRK. The DPRK accepted the ROK’s proposal to hold an event from February 7-9 at Mount Kumgang with about 100 people attending from each side. Lee Nak-yon, spokesperson for the Millennium Democratic Party stated, “We hope that the joint celebration event of Lunar New Year’s Day will contribute to inter-Korean reconciliation and exchanges.”
5. ROK-Vietnam Weapons Modernization
Joongang Ilbo (Lee Chul-hee, “SEOUL WILL HELP VIETNAM UPDATE WEAPONRY,” Seoul, 01/03/02) reported that a ROK defense contractor, along with the ROK Army, may help the Vietnamese military upgrade some of its equipment, a Ministry of National Defense official said Wednesday. “We are currently discussing upgrading 200 of the Vietnamese M-113 armored cars, a project which will be led by a domestic defense contractor and supported by the army,” said the official, who requested anonymity. “The specific details will be discussed at a ROK-Vietnam joint committee meeting on defense industry and munitions, which will be held in the first half of the year in Seoul,” he added. The two countries will also discuss ROK’s participation in modernizing the Vietnamese military’s M-16s, an American automatic rifle widely used in Vietnam and abandoned there after the South Vietnamese government fell in 1975 and the U.S. withdrew.
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Center for American Studies,
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International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
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Monash Asia Institute,
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Brandon Yu: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States
Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States
Kim Young-soo: yskim328@hotmail.com
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Hibiki Yamaguchi: hibikiy@dh.mbn.or.jp
Tokyo, Japan
Saiko Iwata: saiko@akira.ne.jp
Tokyo, Japan
Hiroya Takagi: hiroya_takagi@hotmail.com
Tokyo, Japan
Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation
Wu Chunsi: cswu@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
John McKay: John.McKay@adm.monash.edu.au
Clayton, Australia