NAPSNet Daily Report 01 November, 2000

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet Daily Report 01 November, 2000", NAPSNet Daily Report, November 01, 2000, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-daily-report/napsnet-daily-report-01-november-2000/

 
CONTENTS

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Missile Talks
2. Alleged DPRK-Iran Missile Cooperation
3. UN Resolution on Korea
4. US-PRC Military Talks
5. Russian Arms Sales to PRC
II. Russian Federation 1. RF-DPRK Treaty
2. Albright’s DPRK Visit
3. DPRK View of US-ROK Military Exercises
4. PRC Commemoration of Korean War
5. RF-PRC Inter-Parliamentary Contacts
6. RF View of PRC-Taiwan Naval Balance
7. PRC-Namibia Space Cooperation

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Missile Talks

The Washington Post (Ellen Nakashima and Steven Mufson, “CLINTON TRIP TO N. KOREA HINGES ON MISSILE INTENTIONS,” 11/1/00) and Agence France Presse (“US AND NORTH KOREA START MISSILE TALKS IN MALAYSIA,” Kuala Lumpur, 11/1/00) reported that a senior administration official said that US President Clinton would want to know “the specifics” of the DPRK’s missile offer before committing to a state visit to the DPRK. On anonymous official said about ongoing US-DPRK missile talks, “Ultimately, the question comes down to what are they willing to give up, and what do they think they need as a substitute?” The DPRK has indicated that it would expect to be compensated for the loss of export earnings if it agreed to halt exports to countries such as Iran and Pakistan, but US officials argue that the DPRK’s missile exports might bring in as little as US$300 million. Officials said that could be offset by increased trade and tourism with the ROK alone, and reconciliation with Japan could result in reparations for colonization. The senior official said that the administration has not decided exactly how much movement by the DPRK would justify a presidential visit, but “missiles is probably the most paramount issue that we face. That will be a cornerstone of a judgment [whether] to go, and we don’t know enough yet.” The official added, “We all recognize that we want to capture this moment. Chairman Kim [Jong- il] is clearly indicating that he wants a different kind of relationship with the United States and the rest of the world in the future. That is certainly something we should nurture and advance. If this continues, there will at some point in the future be a visit by the president of the United States to Pyongyang. The question is whether now is that time…. You won’t know that until you really evaluate all of the substance.” [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 1, 2000.]

2. Alleged DPRK-Iran Missile Cooperation

The Associated Press (“IRAN DENIES NORTH KOREA HELPED WITH MISSILES,” Tokyo, 11/1/00) reported that the Japanese Foreign Ministry said that Iran dismissed concerns by Japan on October 31 that it was developing missiles with technology provided by the DPRK. Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono told his Iranian counterpart, Kamal Kharrazi, that Japan was worried about the similarity between Iran’s ballistic missiles and those of the DPRK. In his reply, Kharrazi said that Iran was developing missiles on its own and that help from the DPRK was not necessary. Kharrazi’s comments came as he and Iranian President Mohammed Khatami arrived in Tokyo on a four-day visit to Japan. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 1, 2000.]

3. UN Resolution on Korea

The Washington Times (Betsy Pisik, “KOREAS COSPONSOR U.N. PEACE RESOLUTION,” New York, 11/1/00) and the Associated Press (Nicole Winfield, “GA SUPPORTS KOREAN REUNIFICATION,” United Nations, 11/1/00) reported that the DPRK joined the ROK on October 31 to cosponsor their first joint resolution to encourage further peace efforts on the peninsula. The resolution, drafted by diplomats from the ROK and the DPRK in recent months, praises the June inter-Korean summit and encourages both to implement an agreement to reunite divided families and work toward eventual reunification. The measure was sponsored by 157 nations including the US, Russia, the PRC, and Japan, and was approved on October 31 by acclimation. The resolution was largely symbolic, but ROK Ambassador Sun Joun-yung compared the historical significance of the discussion in the UN chamber to events leading to the end of the Korean War in 1953. The resolution said that the Assembly “welcomes and supports the inter-Korean summit and the joint declaration adopted on June 15, 2000, by the two leaders of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea.” The official DPRK news agency hailed the UN resolution, saying, “The consensus adoption of the resolution reflects the present positive developments of the Korean peninsula resulted by the idea of national independence.” [Ed. note: The Washington Times article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 1, 2000.]

4. US-PRC Military Talks

The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, “MILITARY’S TOP GENERAL ON WAY TO BEIJING FOR TALKS, MANEUVERS,” 10/31/00) reported that General Henry H. Shelton, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, will visit the PRC on Wednesday. US Department of Defense officials said that Shelton will also take part in Nanjing region military exercises involving thousands of PRC troops in live fire, combined arms warfare drills. It will be the first time a senior US general has been permitted to view a large-scale war game. The visit has been kept secret by the US Defense Department, but a formal announcement of the visit is expected sometime Wednesday. Shelton will be hosted by PRC General Fu Quanyou, chief of the general staff and a member of the PRC’s Central Military Commission. He is also expected to meet PRC General Chu Wenquan, chief of staff of Nanjing military forces and the PRC’s top expert on computer and information warfare, and give an address at the National Defense University. US Defense Department officials said that Shelton likely will discuss various aspects of the Taiwan issues, including US arms sales to Taiwan. A senior US Defense Department official said, “I think it will be a clear discussion of positions relative to Taiwan and reaffirming the U.S. position that resolving the Taiwan issue peacefully is the only way to go.” US officials noted that when US Admiral Dennis Blair, commander-in- chief of the US Pacific Command, during a private meeting in Beijing in January sought to clarify the Clinton administration policy of “ambiguity” toward Taiwan by telling PRC officers that US military forces are ready to defend Taiwan if it is attacked by the PRC, the PRC military leaders dismissed the warning as bluster. The official stated, “they viewed it as a ‘laughable boast’ on the part of the Americans.” [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 1, 2000.]

5. Russian Arms Sales to PRC

Agence France Presse (“RUSSIA’S KASYANOV EYES MAJOR ARMS DEAL WITH CHINA,” Moscow, 11/1/00) reported that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov prepared Wednesday for a two-day trip to the PRC, dominated by Russia’s plans to sell nearly US$1billion dollar of military hardware to the PRC. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said that military and technical cooperation would be a major focus of Kasyanov’s talks with his PRC counterpart Zhu Rongji. Russian officials were cautious about revealing details of the sale, but US defense analysts said that the PRC was most likely seeking to purchase a high-tech military surveillance system it had earlier sought to secure from Israel. Kasyanov will sign a deal on delivery to the PRC of a still undisclosed number of Russian airborne early-warning radar systems known as A-50E. Each unit is estimated to cost US$200 million. The Nezavisimaya Gazeta said that Israel and Taiwan stood to lose heavily from the Russia-PRC deal. The report said, “Washington and its allies are the losers — one side (Israel) ended up without the money, the other side (Taiwan) without protection.”

II. Russian Federation

1. RF-DPRK Treaty

Nezavisimaya Gazeta (“R.F. AND D.P.R.K. RATIFIED THE FRIENDSHIP TREATY,” Moscow, 1, 10/31/00) reported that a protocol on exchange of certificates of ratification for the RF-DPRK Treaty on friendship, good-neighborliness and cooperation was signed Monday in Moscow. RF Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Losyukov commented that the Treaty coming into effect from the moment of signing of the protocol would serve “to widen and deepen the relations between the two countries in various areas,” adding that the RF “firmly supports the cause of peace and independent unification of Korea and non-interference in its internal affairs.”

2. Albright’s DPRK Visit

Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s Dmitry Kosyrev (“A PRE-ELECTION VISIT TO PYONGYANG,” Moscow, 6, 10/26/00) commented that the most difficult stage of US State Secretary Madeleine Albright’s Korean visit began on October 25, as she was to discuss the results of her trip to DPRK with ROK officials. “Seoul constantly demands for the efforts to be coordinated, because all neighbors of DPRK are afraid that for the sake of pre- election or some other considerations … Washington will achieve a ‘separate’ agreement with Pyongyang, as a result of which Asian countries that are more than anybody interested in a detente in the region will get nothing. What Mrs. Albright was doing in DPRK during her visit there looked rather more like a pre-election performance serving to disguise in the remaining few days the US diplomatic failure in the Middle East.” The article said that “the quite and dirty work” in the Middle East is difficult to sell to the TV, while Albright’s visit to DPRK is to establish the notion that “Clinton is a man under whom the historically last Communist state started disappearing from the face of the Earth.” It added that the results of the visit are being presented as “a sensation,” but in fact there is nothing new about them, as the plans for a US presidential visit to DPRK and for an improvement of the Armistice Agreement and the news about the DPRK’s promise to cancel its ballistic missile tests were already made public on October 12 after DPRK Vice Marshal Jo Myong-rok’s visit to the US. Albright did not even reveal the exact date of Clinton’s visit. At the same time, the beginning of expert-level talks on using US carriers to launch DPRK satellites in exchange for the DPRK canceling its missile program means progress in the process initiated by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s statement to RF President Vladimir Putin this summer.

3. DPRK View of US-ROK Military Exercises

Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s M.O. (“D.P.R.K. DOES NOT LIKE THE MANEUVERS,” Moscow, 6, 10/31/00) reported that the DPRK Foreign Ministry said that joint US-ROK military exercises “are an open challenge to the dialogue partner” and contradictory to the recently published US-DPRK communique. The Ministry reminded the US that 1992 negotiations on implementation of inter-Korean agreements were also stopped due to similar exercises then.

4. PRC Commemoration of Korean War

Segodnya (“CHINA COMMEMORATES THE WAR IN KOREA,” Moscow, 4, 10/26/00) reported that the PRC commemorated the 50th anniversary of its entry into the war in Korea on October 25. PRC troops, which according to PRC officials consisted exclusively of volunteers, lost about 900,000 dead in 1950-1953. For the occasion, the Beijing Military Museum exhibited a MiG-15 plane. Wan Hai, a PRC Air Force pilot, manned it at that time and destroyed 9 US fighters.

5. RF-PRC Inter-Parliamentary Contacts

Izvestia (“AN OLD FRIEND CAME TO BEIJING,” Moscow, 4, 10/26/00) reported that Yevgeny Primakov, former RF Premier and Chairman of the “Fatherland – All Russia” RF parliamentary faction, came to Beijing on a personal invitation from Li Peng, Chairman of All-China Assembly of People’s Representatives. He plans to meet also with PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and make a speech at the PRC Academy of Sciences, and is expected to be received by PRC Chairman Jiang Zemin. Prior to his departure, Primakov said that the RF-PRC partnership faced a beautiful future.

6. RF View of PRC-Taiwan Naval Balance

Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye (“NAVY VERSUS NAVY,” Moscow, 2, 10/27- 11/02/00, # 40(213)) published a full-page article by Narat Rezyapov, 2nd Rank Capt., Ph.D. (Military) on the naval balance between the PRC and Taiwan. Extensive figures and quantitative analysis are included. The weak spots of both navies include a limited range, a relative weakness of anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense, and a large number of obsolete weapons and radio- electronic systems. Also, contradictions between PRC and Association of Southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea are covered.

7. PRC-Namibia Space Cooperation

Izvestia’s Sergey Leskov (“A GREAT LEAP TO OUTER SPACE,” Moscow, 4, 10/26/00) reported that the PRC signed an agreement with Namibia to build a space flight control center in that country as a part of its program of manned space flights. Similar negotiations are being held with Pakistan. The PRC already possesses a team of astronauts and has tested unmanned spaceships. The program is designed to make the PRC the third country in the world capable of sending people into space. Although the PRC insists its space technologies are indigenous, experts maintain that it obtained them chiefly from the USSR and the RF. On April 25, 1996, the RF and the PRC signed a “secret” intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in space technologies. A team of PRC astronauts underwent training in the RF, and the PRC obtained a model of a “Soyuz TM” transportation spaceship and space docking equipment. The “Fairy Ship” spaceship of the PRC, successfully launched in November of 1999, looks a lot like the Soviet “Soyuz,” although PRC designers say that theirs is “absolutely different” and “much better.” It is rumored that the second flight is planned this November. The PRC’s “Great March” rocket looks like an enlarged Soviet UR-200 with four liquid-fuel jet boosters from a European “Ariana- 4.” Recently, Valery Ryumin, RF cosmonaut pilot and president of “Energia” space-rocket corporation, visited the main space flight control center in Beijing and said that it was better than those of the RF and the US, so that “in 10 years the Chinese will go farther than everybody else.” According to a US Defense Department annual report, the PRC is expected to undertake a manned space flight with 3 men on board in 2001. PRC sources claim that the PRC space program aims at creation of its own orbital station, use of resources of the moon, and unmanned flights to the moon and Mars. Allegedly, PRC experts recently discussed details of its men landing on the moon.

The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are available to all recipients. For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather information for this report, or for more information on web sites with related information, see the collection of other NAPSNet resources.
We invite you to reply to today’s report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network.

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Gee Gee Wong: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun: khs688@hotmail.com
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao: yule111@sina.com
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

John McKay: John.McKay@adm.monash.edu.au
Clayton, Australia

Leanne Payton: lbpat1@smtp.monash.edu.au
Clayton, Australia

 


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.