Given the pressures that could lead to armed conflict between the United States and the DPRK in the near future, Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, outlines four scenarios that try to answer whether or not possibilities exist for a peaceful resolution between the United States and the DPRK before November, 2004. Hayes also addresses the questions: What are the strategic elements of such scenarios? What are the pitfalls? If the conflict spins out of control, in what ways could one push towards a peaceful outcome? This Op-Ed was based on the second annual Nautilus Institute US-DPRK Scenarios Workshop held in May 2003.
Archives
NAPSNet Daily Report 11 August, 2003
CONTENTS
1. US DPRK Nuclear Talks Proposal
2. US-Japan-ROK DPRK Talks
3. ROK Anti-US Activists
4. US-PRC on DPRK Asylum Seekers
5. Japan on ‘Going Nuclear’
6. Japan Hiroshima Anniversary
7. Russia on Inter-Korean Talks
8. PRC on Yasukuni Shrine Visit
9. Japan on DPRK Kidnappings
10. PRC Domestic Politics
11. PRC Society
12. PRC on US Religious Rights Monitor Pullout
II. People’s Republic of China 1. Relations Across Taiwan Straits
2. DPRK Nuke Talks
3. PRC-Japan Relations
4. PRC’s Commentary on Japan’s Defense White Paper
5. PRC’s Commentary on DPRK Nuke Talks
6. DPRK-ROK Relations
7. DPRK Criticizes US-ROK Drills
8. SCO Joint Exercise
9. Sino-Russian Ties
10. Russia Terrorism Attack
NAPSNet Daily Report 08 August, 2003
CONTENTS
1. US-Japan-ROK DPRK Pre-Meetings
2. Powell on DPRK Non-Aggression Pact
3. Japan Nuclear Arsenal Development
4. PRC on Taiwan UN Bid
5. US Military on ROK Anti-US Radicals
6. ROK-DPRK Maritime Warning Shots
7. ROK Chung Mong-hun Last Respects
8. ROK Domestic Economy
9. US-PRC Religious Freedom
10. PRC Environmental Satellites
11. Japan Wedding Traditions
II. Japan 1. Terrorism on Koreans in Japan
2. Japan Iraq Troop Deployment
3. Japan New Defense Administrative Vice Minister
4. US on PRC Missiles
5. US Bases in Japan
NAPSNet Daily Report 07 August, 2003
CONTENTS
1. DPRK Multilateral Talk Developments
2. PRC Anti-Terror Military Exercises
3. US on Foreign Airport Missile Threats
4. Powell on US DPRK Non-Aggression Pact
5. Criticism of US Nuclear Arms Policy
6. PRC-US Space Arms Talks
7. ROK Domestic Politics Corruption
8. Japan Oil Crisis
9. US-Japan Global Warming
10. Japan Nagasaki Rememberance
NAPSNet Daily Report 06 August, 2003
Policy Forum 03-38A: N. Korea: Fibs versus Facts
Leon V. Sigal, director of the Northeast Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York, asserts that the Bush administration has been misleading in its portrayal of North Korea by spreading three “inexactitudes” concerning North Korea’s nuclear intention, role in the Agreed Framework, and the possibility of its collapse. Moreover, a U.S. strategy of strangulation cannot be effective unless all of the North’s neighbors are willing to join in. However, none are willing to, as they all realize that pressure without negotiations won’t work with Pyongyang.
NAPSNet Daily Report 05 August, 2003
CONTENTS
1. Japan Defense Agency Annual Report
2. US-Japan Mutual Assistance Treaty
3. Taiwan on US PRC Missile Report
4. Taiwan Defense Spending
5. Yang Jianli Trial
6. Japan Domestic Politics
7. PRC-ROK Relations
8. Inter-Korean Relations
9. DPRK Hyundai Tycoon Death Accusation
10. ROK Domestic Politics Corruption
11. Russia in Asian Arms Market
12. DPRK-PRC Border Trade Resumption
II. Japan 1. Japan-US Energy Talk
2. US Bases in Japan
3. LDP Presidential Election
4. Japan-Iraq Oil Deal
5. Hiroshima A-Bomb Timing
6. US H-Bomb Test on Bikini Atoll in 1954
NAPSNet Daily Report 04 August, 2003
CONTENTS
1. DPRK on Bolton as ‘Human Scum’
2. US Response to ‘Human Scum’ Comment
3. Armitage on DPRK Kim Jong Il
4. Powell on DPRK Diplomacy
5. DPRK on Nuclear Talks
6. DPRK UN Talks Warning
7. Pentagon Nuclear Arms Private Meetings
8. US-Japan Multilateral DPRK Nuclear Inspection Team
9. US PRC Dissident Trial
10. PRC-Hong Kong Relations
11. DPRK Domestic Politics
II. People’s Republic of China 1. PRC’s Stance on Diaoyu and Taiwan Islands
2. DPRK Nuke Issue
3. PRC-US Talks
4. PRC’s Commentary on the Peace of the Korean Peninsula
5. PRC’s Commetary on Relations Across Taiwan Straits
6. Japan’s Security Measures
7. PRC’s Commentary on Japan’s Security Measures
8. US-PRC Relations on Taiwan Issue
9. Russian Stance on DPRK Issue
III. Japan 1. Tariff on Imported Beef
2. Japan-DPRK Relations over Abduction Issue
3. Multilateral Talks on DPRK Nuclear Problem
4. Defectors from DPRK
5. Japan-Peru Relations over Former Peru President
6. Japan-PRC Relation over Train System
NAPSNET Week in Review 1 August, 2003
United States 1. US Response to DPRK Multilateral Talk The DPRK has agreed to take part in multilateral talks to try to settle the crisis sparked by its nuclear program, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. “North Korea has agreed to the multilateral approach that we long sought. That will include six-party talks,” McClellan told […]
NAPSNet Daily Report 01 August, 2003
CONTENTS
1. DPRK Multilateral Talks Agreement
2. US Bush on DPRK Talk Agreement
3. Bolten on US ‘Tough’ DPRK Policy
4. ROK Confirms DPRK Multilateral Talks Agreement
5. DPRK on US-ROK War Drill
6. PRC on US Missile Report
7. Japan DPRK Asylum Seekers
8. PRC Post-SARS Development
II. Japan 1. Japan Iraq Troop Deployment
2. LDP Presidential Election
3. DPJ-Liberal Party Merger
4. US Bases in Japan