2011
December
N. Korea set to mobilise masses for funeral, Agence France Presse, 27 December 2011
Kim Jong-Il’s two other sons are conspicuous by their absence. They are not listed as members of the official funeral committee and have not been pictured during the mourning period. “Omitting the other offspring provides a straight and clean succession path from Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Un,” wrote Roger Cavazos, an associate of the Nautilus Institute think-tank.
‘Hard Target’ North Korea Poses Challenge to U.S. Spy Efforts, John Walcott, Bloomberg News, 21 December 2011
The Egyptian firm Orascom Telecom Holding SAE (OCIC) is building a 3G cell network in the North, according to a Nov. 1 report by Alexandre Mansourov of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, a policy research group in San Francisco. The report said that only about 3 percent of the country now has service, although it would become harder to monitor as it grows.
North Korea: Nuclear Ambition, Power Shortage, Marianne Lavelle, National Geographic, 20 December 2011
The best estimates on the extent of that darkness today come from the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, which has worked for years on the energy situation in North Korea. The latest figures, which soon will be published as an update to a study Nautilus did in 2007 (pdf), show that North Korea currently is consuming about 10.4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, says Nautilus senior associate David von Hippel. That’s less than the electricity used each year by the city of Washington, D.C. (about 12 billion kilowatt-hours) spread thinly across a country that has almost 40 times as many people as the U.S. capital.
North Korea, in transition, could draw further into shell, Tim Johnson and Lesley Clark, McClatchy Newspapers, 19 December 2011
The Nautilus Institute — a research center with offices in San Francisco, Seoul and Melbourne, Australia — issued a statement Monday saying Kim Jong Un is “likely to be more open to rapid, structural change in the economy. Whether he can bring along his senior advisers in embracing the notion of structural change is another matter.”
Vacuum Left by Kim Jong Il’s Death May be More Dangerous than the Former North Korean Dictator, Lauren Fox, U.S. News, 19 December 2011
Bush and others like Peter Hayes who have worked with the Nautilus Institute to implement creative development programs on the ground in North Korea believe there is always the chance that a regime change could gradually lead to warmer relations with the isolated country.
Kim Jong Un reportedly attended school in Switzerland for a time during his early teens and is said to have both English and German language skills.
“He is a cosmopolitan young man. He could surprise us,” Hayes says. “I think it’s unlikely that North Korea engages fully with the West, but it’s low-lying fruit waiting to be plucked by a new administration.”
Information black hole as North Korean leader dies, Jonathan Hopfner, Reuters, 19 December 2011
In the last couple of years, mobile phone use has “just exploded,” he said, with people often using mid-range, China-made handsets to trade SMS messages, play games and browse weather reports.
The North’s mobile communications industry “has crossed the Rubicon, and the government can no longer roll it back without paying a severe political price,” the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability said in a report last month.
November
North Korea Hits 1 Million Cell Phone Users, But Growth Slows, Kendra Srivastava, Mobiledia, 22 November 2011
North Korea will soon boast one million cell phone users, just four years after people were imprisoned for possessing handsets, illustrating mobile technology’s effect on the isolated, authoritarian country. The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability reports 60 percent of people aged 20 to 50 own mobile phones in the capital of Pyongyang, where the country’s most affluent citizens reside.
FEATURE: Secretive North Korea opens up to cellphones, Jeremy Laurence, Reuters, 20 November 2011
A report this month by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability said 60 percent of people ages 20 to 50 use cellphones in Pyongyang, a city of around 3 million people who are strictly vetted by the state for residency permits. “Especially for the younger generation in their 20s and 30s, as well as the merchant community, a cellphone is seen as a must, and many youngsters can no longer see their lives without it,” Alexandre Mansourov wrote in the report.
NK’s Rapid Digital Society Development, Arirang News, 12 November 2011
A gentle wind of change has been blowing in North Korea, albeit in the digital realm. The technology laggard country is “on the cusp of a digital transformation,” according to a recent report. Research from the Nautilus Institute shows that an increased availability of mobile phones and higher ownership of mobile phones in the North is forcing the country’s government to change its ways. The report says that increased communication options have forced rulers to deter North Koreans from posting what they deem to be ‘unsuitable comments’ rather than restricting its population from communicating through modern technology.
Nautilus on DPRK’s digital revolution, Martyn Williams, North Korea Tech, 4 November 2011
“The Nautilus Institute contends in a new report that North Korea is on the cusp of digital transformation thanks to the increasing importance of cell phones and computers in the country.
The report, which is available online (PDF), is a comprehensive and well-researched history and study of the emerging digital communications business in North Korea and was written by Alexandre Y. Mansourov, a senior associate at the organization. Mansourov specializes in Korean peninsula issues and once lived in Pyongyang studying for an Advanced Diploma in Korean studies at Kim Il Sung University.
It’s recommended reading for anyone interested in North Korean IT issues.”
N. Korea on the cusp of digital transformation: expert, Lee Chi-dong, Yonhap News Agency, 1 November 2011
“The DPRK (North Korea) mobile communications industry has crossed the Rubicon,” Alexandre Y. Mansourov, senior researcher at Nautilus Institute in Washington, said in a report on the North’s nascent but potential digitalization. “And the North Korean government can no longer roll it back without paying a severe political price.”
September
CIA documents shed light on S. Korea’s nuke ambition in 1970s, Shin Hae-in, Korea Herald, 27 September 2011
Global Asia, a publication of the East Asia Foundation in Seoul, said the previously secret U.S. documents show that South Korea continued to develop nuclear weapons at least two years after Washington thought it had ceased during the 1970s.
Such a past can help shape sensible policies in the current regional efforts to rein in North Korea’s nuclear program, scholars Peter Hayes and Chung-in Moon said in the Global Asia September issue.
Chung, Global Asia’s editor-in-chief and a professor at Yonsei University, and Hayes, director of the Nautilus Institute and a member of Global Asia’s editorial board, claimed Seoul’s former nuclear ambition was “largely triggered by eroding or ambiguous security assurances from Washington.”
S. Korea’s nuke ambition lasted until 1978: CIA documents, Lee Chi-dong, Yonhap News, 26 September 2011
The revelations provide “important new information” on the Park administration’s efforts and on the U.S. response to his continuing program, said Moon Jung-in, professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, and Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute.
Click here to see a full list of media mentions for the NAPSNet Special Report: “Park Chung Hee, the CIA and the Bomb” by Peter Hayes and Chung-in Moon.
May
Is a Nuclear-Free East Asia Possible? A Debate, Jeju Weekly, 29 May 2011
Moderator Peter Hayes, Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, stated the meetings agenda and explained that the situation needs to be dealt with from a non-proliferation and safety perspective.
April
Getting the Lights Back on the Fast Way, Carl Pope, Huffington Post, 28 April 2011
According to the latest Nautilus Institute model, the centralized model is slightly cheaper in terms of levelized cost of electricity, but significantly slower. And when it comes to power, slow and steady does not win the race. In a more modest, short comment, The Economist agrees.
March
Japan’s shock vibrates around the world, Hamish McDonald, Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 2011.
An initial survey by the Nautilus Institute, a respected think tank on nuclear issues, points out that in addition to the Fukushima No.1 reactors, several other nuclear and thermal power plants in both the Tokyo and Tohoku (north-east) power systems are likely to be offline for one to three years, or in the worst case scenario, damaged beyond repair.
New regulatory requirements to make nuclear power uneconomical, Raeson, 25 March 2011
New standards and conversion of older reactors will probably make many nuclear power stations unprofitable. Expansion of nuclear power will slow dramatically in China and elsewhere, while competitive alternative technologies such as renewable energy and end-user efficiency will significantly overtake nuclear power in the coming decades, says energy and security expert Peter Hayes.
“Japan’s Nuclear Nightmare”, Four Corners, ABC TV, 21 March 2011
Reactor plans go ahead despite critics’ warnings, Sydney Morning Herald, Tom Allard, 19 March 2011
Richard Tanter, a nuclear expert with the Nautilus Institute, believes Indonesia should drop its ambitions altogether. The disaster at Fukushima ”happened in a country with the best nuclear regulations in the world”, he said. Given its endemic corruption, Mr Tanter said it was ”unfortunately implausible” for Indonesia ”to have the strength and resilience of regulation required to run a nuclear plant”.
PROF RICHARD TANTER – KRISIS NUKLIR JEPANG, SBS Bahasa Indonesia, 18 March 2011
Indonesia insists nuclear plans are safe, , Financial Times, 17 March 2011
“There is acute regulatory risk and you want the highest possible level of transparency, robustness and integrity,” said Richard Tanter of Australia’s Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability. “Those are not phrases that come to mind with the current Indonesian government, or the previous ones for that matter.” He added: “Japan is a country of extraordinary regulation when it puts its mind to it. Indonesia is not. Its powers of enforcement are very weak.”
Japanese weigh the nuclear risk of staying put, Los Angeles Times, Barbara Demick and Mark Magnier, 15 March 2011
The government is deciding which information to release, balancing the public’s right to know against preventing a panic, said Richard Tanter, a senior research associate with the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability in Australia.
Despite Japan Crisis, Indonesia Pursues Nuclear Power, Voice of America News, Brian Padden, 14 March 2011
Aziz says to ensure public safety Indonesia will build plants outside of earthquake zones and in accordance with the International Atomic Energy Agency guidelines. But Richard Tanter a nuclear safety and security researcher at the Nautilus Institute in Melbourne says, the proposed site for a nuclear power plant on the Muria peninsula on the north coast of central Java is a high risk location.
“Firstly that was on the edge of a volcano. Secondly there were seismic risks in that area,” noted Tanter. “Thirdly planning for that Muria nuclear power plant has been based on Japanese earthquake guidelines of thirty years ago.”
Japan fears nuclear plant meltdown, Al Jazeera News, 12 March 2011
Blast reported at nuclear plant amid worries that quake-hit reactor can no longer cool radioactive substances. Peter Hayes, the executive director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable development in Melbourne, described the situation as “dire”.
“It’s still possible that the reactor workers can stabilise the situation if power is brought back, if coolant is brought into the reactor,” he told Al Jazeera, but warned that “we’re really right at the precipice of a massive nuclear crisis”.
Nuclear expert comments on Japan’s crisis [VIDEO], Al Jazeera, 11 March 2011
Peter Hayes, the executive director of the Nautilus Institute, describes the situation as “dire” and explains how a “massive nuclear crisis” could unfold.
Reeling Japan gets a chance to show resilience, Sen Lam, Radio Australia News, 11 March 2011
Japan analyst Dr Richard Tanter, a senior research associate at the Nautilus Institute in Melbourne, has been watching events closely. Calls by the Prime Minister and the chief Cabinet secretary for people in coastal areas of Japan to move to higher ground amazed him, he told Radio Australia’s Asia Pacific program. “That in itself, that mass evacuation, will cause extraordinary chaos. But of course, almost all the important industrial assets of Japan are located on those two big plains around Tokyo and Osaka and point north and south of there.
Japan’s tsunami could hit economy hard Sen Lam, Radio Australia News, 11 March 2011.
Japan analyst, Richard Tanter, is senior research associate at the Nautilus Institute in Melbourne. Dr Tanter has been following news from Tokyo all afternoon.
LAM: How do you think the government will cope?
TANTER: Well, it is extremely hard to know. Really, people could be reacting in one of two ways. Either this is the disaster that breaks the camel’s back, so to speak. Or it could, as actually did happen around the Kobe earthquake, reveal the resilience of the society and the economy and that’s very much what we should be hoping for. But the economic effects, whatever the political context, they’re going to be extraordinary. One example of that, is the question of the nuclear power stations which run all along that Pacific coast, particularly north from Tokyo, through Sendai, through Miyagi prefecture itself, going further north, right up to Almori on the tip of Honshu. There are very important nuclear power stations.
The government has reported that as designed, they are closing down automatically, but the economic effects can be gauged by from happened the last time there was a major earthquake in Japan, in September 2007, on the other side, the Japan Sea side, which closed down the largest nuclear power plant in Japan for more than year and a half. And so, Japan is highly dependent on these nuclear power stations. They may well have closed automatically and hopefully, there’s no radiation problem, but the economic consequences of them closing, and we don’t really know the damage yet, but from the 2007 example, these could be out of action for a very long time.
N. Korea seeks to sell global carbon credits, Jung Ha-won, Agence France Presse, 8 March 2011.
Many rural areas receive power only during key agricultural seasons, and must rely for the rest of the year on alternative fuels, according to a recent policy paper published by the Nautilus Institute think-tank.
February
China, US making South China Sea a nuclear zone, Jun Verzola, GMA News, 3 February 2011.
Article 7 of the treaty says that each signatory state may decide for itself, “on being notified,” how to deal with possibly nuclear-armed vessels and aircraft that visit its ports and airfields, that navigate through its waters or fly over its airspace.
But as Mark Valencia of Australia’s Nautilus Institute points out, what if the nuclear-weapon state operating the aircraft or naval vessel does not notify the corresponding ASEAN state?
And then there is the US’s famous position of neither confirming nor denying the presence of nuclear weapons on its vessels.