2006

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2006

November 2006

Richard Tanter: JAPAN: Senior politicians openly debate nuclear option, Sen Lam, Radio Australia – Australia, 2006-11-21

Japan has assured its Asian neighbours it will not acquire nuclear weapons. But senior members of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party recently sparked controversy by saying Japan should debate the question of going nuclear.”

Peter Hayes: North Korea’s return boosts China, observers say, Matthew B. Stannard, San Francisco Chronicle – USA, 2006-11-02

The North “loses nothing from more time and more talk,” said Peter Hayes, executive director of the San Francisco-based Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development. “Meanwhile, it makes more plutonium and can prepare for a second test, which I believe is more likely than not in the winter period.”

Peter Hayes: [Academy] Journal Aims to Serve for Regional Prosperity, Ryu Jin, Korean Times – Korea, 2006-11-01

Members of the editorial board include, among others, Ahn Choong-yong, a professor of economics at Chung-Ang University in South Korea; Nayan Chanda, a journalist and foreign policy analyst from India; Yoichi Funabashi, a columnist and chief diplomatic correspondent for Asahi Shimbun in Japan; Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute in the United States; G. John Ikenberry, a professor of political science and international affairs at Princeton University in the United States; Nodari Simonia, deputy director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow; Simon S. C. Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs; and Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University.

October 2006

Peter Hayes: North Korea’s motives still a mystery, Peter Alford, Australian – Australia, 2006-10-28

“The DPRK might believe that a half-kiloton ‘mini-nuke’ still provides it with a measure of nuclear deterrence and compellence (sic),” concludes a new study by Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute and Stanford University’s Jungmin Kang.

Peter Hayes: N. Korea nuclear claims raise troubling questions, Kyoichi Sasazawa, Daily Yomiuri – Japan, 2006-10-17

Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute in the United States, speculated that if the seismic data is correct, it implies North Korea may have tried to create a bomb with a small amount of plutonium, but that either a premature explosion or imperfect implosion resulted from poor technology.

Peter Hayes: Nuclear Test Confirmed, Rice Urges Enforcement, Michele Kelemen, National Public Radio (NPR) – USA, 2006-10-16

Peter Hayes, of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, says both China and South Korea are unlikely to agree to force down aircraft or stop and search ships — actions they fear could spark a military showdown with North Korea.

Peter Hayes and Tim Savage: Can sanctions touch Pyongyang?, Choe Sang-Hun, International Herald Tribune – France & USA, 2006-10-11

“As unpalatable as the world may find Kim Jong Il with nuclear weapons, the alternatives are worse,” Peter Hayes and Tim Savage, analysts at the Nautilus Institute, a research group in the United States and Australia, wrote in a commentary circulated Wednesday. “Regime collapse, the long-cherished dream of the hard-liners in Washington and Tokyo, poses the prospect of loose nukes ending up in the hands of power-mad generals in the midst of a war in Korea, or being spirited out of the country to find their way into the hands of terrorists.”

Peter Hayes and Tim Savage: North Korea Faces Sanctions, Carin Zissis, Council on Foreign Relations – USA, 2006-10-11

Peter Hayes and Tim Savage of the Nautilus Institute say Beijing-along with Seoul and Moscow-knows that bringing down the Kim Jong-Il regime with financial punishment could result in nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands. “Right now, the best response is to do little and say nothing, in order to devalue Kim’s bomb,” they write.

Peter Hayes: Shell-shocked neighbours feel the fallout, Deborah Cameron, Sydney Morning Herald – Australia, 2006-10-10

North Korea had become a “nuclear stalker state”, according to Peter Hayes, the Australia-based executive director of an international foreign-policy think tank, the Nautilus Institute.

Peter Hayes: L’Asie en terrain miné, Mathieu Perreault, La Presse – Canada, 2006-10-10

«L’impact de l’essai nucléaire se fera surtout sentir en Asie», estime Peter Hayes, directeur de l’institut californien Nautilus, qui organise régulièrement des conférences dans les pays bordant le Pacifique Nord. «Il est très possible que les États-Unis se limitent à condamner la Corée du Nord, et à tenter de l’isoler encore davantage. S’ils cherchent à réaffirmer la puissance américaine en déployant des armes nucléaires sur des navires, ou pire au Japon, ce serait une erreur stratégique, qui s’ajouterait à 10 ans de politique à courte vue dans la péninsule coréenne.»

Peter Hayes: U.S., Others Grasp for Answer to N. Korea Test, Thomas Omestad, US News & World Report – USA, 2006-10-10

One of the most perceptive North Korea watchers, Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, calls Pyongyang a “nuclear ‘stalker state.’ He wrote last week, “Like a repeat offender, the DPRK [North Korea] is likely to continue to use nuclear threat to stalk the United States until it achieves what it perceives to be a genuine shift in Washington’s attitude. Unlike an individual who stalks, there is no simple way to lock up a state that stalks another with nuclear threat.”

Peter Hayes: UN Security Council Issues Warning to N Korea, Richard Mason, SBS – Australia, 2006-10-07

Dr Peter Hayes, international relations analyst: I think the first thing you can say is that they will do it, I’m certain of this. And the reason for that is that they have announced to their own population over the previous months that there is a pending increase in their military power.

Peter Hayes: Canberra’s stance on Pyongyang ‘pathetic’, Deborah Cameron, The Age – Australia, 2006-10-07

Professor Peter Hayes, the Australian director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, said Canberra had become too extreme and beholden to the United States.

Peter Hayes: World races to defuse North Korean nuclear crisis, Deborah Cameron, Sydney Morning Herald – Australia, 2006-10-07

But the expected UN Security Council text, which does not explicitly threaten sanctions, is likely to be weaker than the US and Japan had requested, amid disagreement over how to rein in the communist state. And Australia’s stand on North Korea has been criticised as “very sad, even pathetic” by Professor Peter Hayes, the Australian-based director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, a foreign policy think tank.

Peter Hayes: North Korean eyes nuclear test in coal mine -source, Benjamin Kang Lim and Chris Buckley, Tiscali News – UK, 2006-10-06

Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, a San Francisco-based think-tank that focuses on North Korea, said Pyongyang was attempting to use the threat of a nuclear test to press the United States into direct dialogue and concessions, including a lifting of financial restrictions.

September 2006

Peter Hayes: Japan imposes financial sanctions on North Korea, Tim Johnson, Myrtle Beach Sun News – USA, 2006-09-19

“It’s a fairly high-quality software firm. They’ve done quite a few contracts in Japan,” said Peter Hayes, a North Korea expert and the executive director of the Nautilus Institute, a research center that focuses partly on the dangers of nuclear war.

Richard Tanter: Anxiety chipping away at Japan’s nuclear taboo, Tim Johnson, McClatchy Newspapers – USA, 2006-09-18

“Japan has a virtual nuclear deterrent. Every country in the region knows it can produce a nuclear device, a rather sophisticated one, probably in six months,” said Richard Tanter, a Japan scholar at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology in Australia.

Richard Tanter: RI intelligence: Crying out for salvation, Alexandra Retno Wulan, Jakata Post – Indonesia, 2006-09-07

Richard Tanter, one of the most prolific experts on Indonesian intelligence, describes Indonesia as an intelligence state where the state uses its institutions of surveillance simultaneously as its machinery of terror.

August 2006

Peter Hayes: ??????????????????, Washington Observer – USA, 2006-08-02

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Peter Hayes: Pyongyang and Washington: Roaring Mouse vs. Squeaking Lion, John Feffer, Foreign Policy In Focus – USA, 2006-08-01

“It took considerable compromise to win [Chinese and Russian] backing for a UN resolution condemning North Korea’s missile launch (and, as Peter Hayes has pointed out in a Nautilus commentary, considerable finessing of the legal rationale, which was based solely on North Korea’s failure to provide sufficient advance notice).”

July 2006

Peter Hayes: China may have supported U.N. resolution because of possible N.K. nuke test: scholar, Yonhap News – South Korea, 2006-07-23

“In my view, the only factor that would have led China to support such a condemnatory resolution at the Security Council would have been advance notice by the DPRK that intended to test a nuclear weapon, or unambiguous intelligence received by China to the same effect,” said the scholar, Peter Hayes of the U.S.-based think tank Nautilus Institute.

Peter Hayes: Help needed in move to market economy, John Garnaut, Sydney Morning Herald – Australia, 2006-07-17

“The only way to achieve peace is to enable North Korea to transform itself inside out,” says Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute and one of the world’s most respected North Korea analysts. “The alternative is a civil war, or a Korean peninsular war, or simply a war.”

Peter Hayes: Expert warns on NK reaction … if US gets UN sanctions, Chris Nelson, Nelson Report (by subscription only), 2006-07-10

Just now, Peter reports: “I talked again with colleagues today in DC,…seems that the Chris Hill-bilateral talks policy current has the upper hand over the weekend; but Bolton still pushing for toughly worded UNSC presidential statement…but that’s happened before and NORKS ignored; may be new twist that UNSC will call for a review in 30-60 days, but they have the ability to do that any time…so unlikely to push NORKS to the wall. So everyone agrees that while close, the balance is tilting away from testing and back to talking…wherein the devil will be in the details, or rather, in who the VP sends to the inter-agency working group…”

Peter Hayes: How far is North Korea from perfecting the Taepodong-2?, Kyoichi Sasazawa, The Daily Yomiuri – Osaka, Japan, 2006-07-09

Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, a U.S.-based public policy think tank, pointed out there would be no point in launching a missile with a range of more than 3,500 kilometers without fully testing its capability.

  • Peter Hayes: How Far Is NK From Perfecting Taepodong-2?, e.sinchew-i.com – Malaysia, 2006-07-10

Peter Hayes: Missile mischief, Editorial, The Anniston Star – USA, 2006-07-07

Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute think tank, had an even harsher performance assessment. “Now we know that they almost certainly don’t have a long-range missile with any capacity whatsoever to worry about,” he told McClatchy newspapers.

Peter Hayes: North Korea’s Giant Firecracker, Timothy Savage, OhmyNews International – South Korea, 2006-07-06

Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, notes that the United States requires 40 flight tests before it deems a missile system operational.

Peter Hayes: The Missile Crisis: Who underestimated whom? What the experts are saying, Kansas City Star – USA, 2006-07-06

“Now we know that they almost certainly don’t have a long-range missile with any capacity whatsoever to worry about.” Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, a think tank with offices in San Francisco and Australia.

Peter Hayes: Missile tests could make it tougher to resume talks, Tim Johnson, San Jose Mercury News – USA, 2006-07-05

“Now we know that they almost certainly don’t have a long-range missile with any capacity whatsoever to worry about,” said Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, a think tank with offices in San Francisco and Melbourne, Australia.

June 2006

Peter Hayes: North Korea warned against long-range missile test, Sen Lam, Radio Australia, 2006-06-20

North Korea has observed a self-imposed moratorium on missile launches since 1999, but is reported to have fuelled a new model capable of reaching Alaska.

Mentioned: Fijian Deaths in Iraq Revive Mercenaries’ Issue, Kalinga Seneviratne, IPS News, 2006-06-12

Nick McLellan of Melbourne’s Nautilus Institute who recently published a research paper on the privatisation of Pacific Island security and Fiji soldiers in Iraq says that private companies with lucrative contracts to protect U.S. and British interests in Iraq, found in Fijian soldiers with Middle East experience, an ideal and willing pool.

April 2006

Peter Hayes: North Korea Would Need Months to Restock Fuel in Case of Combat, The Korea Times, 2006-04-24

It would take at least four months for North Korea to be able to restock its military fuels in case of full-time combat, according to a recent study on the country’s energy capabilities.

Mentioned: Mixed signals on Papua from Jakarta elite, Sen Lam, Radio Australia, April 2006

In a paper published by the Nautilus Institute, Dr Richard Chauvel spoke of Papuan resistance to Indonesian repression, and also Australia’s misreading of the true depth of feeling about Papua in Jakarta.

March 2006

Richard Tanter: Foreign scholars set up blog to settle Sino-Japanese disputes, Japan Economic Newswire Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge, TMCnet, 2006-03-15

Four scholars backed by an Australian university and 40 bloggers from around the world have launched an project to collect ideas on how to settle Sino-Japanese disputes.

Richard Tanter: JAPAN: Tokyo rules out relocation plans for US troops, Sen Lam, Radio Australia, 2006-03-15

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has ruled out changes to a relocation plan for American troops, despite stiff opposition from local communities.

Peter Hayes: Bush counters China through new best friend, Hamish McDonald, Sydney Morning Herald, 2006-03-04

SO FAR it is hard to see an opera being written about George Bush’s visit to New Delhi and his endorsement of India as a nuclear power, but already at least one commentator has compared it to Richard Nixon in China.

February 2006

Richard Tanter: Hoa K? Và Kh? N?ng Quân S? C?a Trung Qu?c, B?o V?, Radio Australia Vietnamese Service, 2006-02-12

Trong b?i c?nh kh? n?ng quân s? c?a Trung Qu?c ngày càng phát tri?n, m?i ?ây Ph? Tá Th? Tr??ng Qu?c P?ng Hoa K? Ryan Henry cho r?ng,Trung Qu?c có th? s? d?ng các bi?n pháp quân s? ?? gi?i quy?t v?n ?? ?ài Loan.

Richard Tanter: U-S: Pentagon warns China may use military to deal with Taiwan , Sen Lam, Radio Australia, 2006-02-09

A senior Pentagon official has warned that China may deal with Taiwan through military means, as Beijing increases its offensive capabilities

January 2006

Peter Hayes: Seoul seeks to reopen deadlocked arms talks, Choe Sang-Hun , International Herald Tribune, 2006-01-17

Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon of South Korea departed Tuesday for talks in Washington at a crucial juncture in international efforts to resume stalled negotiations on ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs.

Peter Hayes: Experts: North Korean Reactor Dreams More Political Than Practical , VOA News, Chosun Ilbo, 2006-01-05

North Korea recently announced it no longer needs the United States to provide it with a light-water nuclear reactor for energy production. The communist state says it will build one by itself.

 

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