CONTENTS
September 5, 2001
Volume 2, #36
Nuclear Weapons and Missile Defense
1. South Asia Nuclear Policy
2. Pan-Asia Nuclear Policy
3. Missile Defense
4. Regional Strategic Relations
5. US Missile Proliferation Sanctions
6. US Non-Proliferation Policy
India
1. India Security Policies
2. US-India Relations
3. China-India Relations
4. Pakistan-India Relations
5. Australia-India Relations
6. India Arms Acquisitions
Pakistan
1. Pakistan Security Policies
2. Pakistan Policies Toward Afghanistan
3. China-Pakistan Relations
4. Russia-Pakistan Relations
Kashmir
1. Diplomacy
2. Analysis
Sri Lanka
1. Diplomacy
Nuclear Weapons and Missile Defense
1. South Asia Nuclear Policy
Former Indian Prime Minister Mr. I.K. Gujral, speaking at a conference in Kazakhastan, made a strong case for a concerted campaign for ridding the world of nuclear arsenals, while underscoring the need to also banish terrorism.
“Gujral opposes selective de-nuclearisation”
India’s Minister of State for External Affairs, Omar Abdullah, informed parliament that India has proposed to Pakistan to hold an expert level official dialogue on nuclear confidence building measures (CBMs).
2. Pan-Asia Nuclear Policy
The New York Times cited a senior US official as stating that the Bush administration is willing to be flexible with China on its missile buildup and might discuss with China the resumption of underground nuclear tests. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that his country would not take a lead in the resumption of nuclear tests.
“U.S. flexible on Chinese missile build-up?”
Lt Gen AM Vohra writes in an IPCS article that “credible nuclear capability” is more important than arsenal size in the India-Pakistan nuclear relationship.
Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev has appealed for international aid to help his country recover from the consequences of forty years of Soviet nuclear testing at Semipalatinsk.
3. Missile Defense
US Ambassador Robert Grey, addressing the UN Conference on Disarmament, reiterated the US view that the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty “as it stands has become a relic”. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov rejected this assertion.
The British weekly New Scientist will report that “boost phase” missile defenses envisioned by the US might not destroy a missile’s warhead, which could fall and detonate anywhere between the launch point and the target.
India reportedly is cooperating with Israel to develop a ballistic missile defense integrating India’s Akash missile and the Israeli Arrow-2 system.
“Indo-Israeli partnership for new missile shield”
4. Regional Strategic Relations
The U.S. Ambassador-designate to India, Mr. Robert D. Blackwill, described US relations with China as complex and characterized by strong points of convergence and divergence.
“Sino-U.S. ties complex”
US Army Secretary Thomas White stated that the US plans to shift troops, arms and other equipment from Europe to Asia.
Dr Subhash Kapila in an IPCS article discusses how the recent China-Russia Friendship Treaty reflects both countries’ growing apprehensions over US global dominance.
5. US Missile Proliferation Sanctions
The US reportedly will impose new sanctions on China and Pakistan for alleged supply of Chinese missile components to Pakistan. While reportedly aimed at China, the sanctions will complicate Pakistan’s efforts to soften existing US sanctions.
The Chinese government reportedly described US proliferation charges as “totally groundless”.
The Pakistani government reportedly described US sanctions against Pakistan as “regrettable” and “without justification.” A Pakistan Foreign Office statement said “Pakistan has not received any technology or equipment from China in violation of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).”
Samar Mubarakmand, chairman of Pakistan’s National Engineering and Scientific Commission, stated that US sanctions on Pakistan will not negatively impact its missile capability. Umer Farooq writes that the sanctions will have little effect on Pakistan’s missile program, but undermine its desire to end broader US sanctions.
US sanctions against China reportedly will block US companies from launching satellites on Chinese rockets or providing technological assistance to the Chinese satellite industry.
“U.S. sends clear message to China”
A US grand jury has indicted three executives of a California electronics firm for illegally selling to India nuclear pulse generators that could be used to help make nuclear weapons.
6. US Non-Proliferation Policy
L K Sharma writes for the DH News Service that US President George Bush’s apparent new China policy “could end all hesitation about nuclear proliferation by the big boys.” Sharma quotes Democrat Senator Joseph Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as calling the plan “absolutely absurd,” and “taking 50 years of trying to control nuclear weapons and standing it on its head”.
Shireen M Mazari, Director General of Islamabad’s Institute of Strategic Studies, argues that US sanctions on China and Pakistan reflect “the growing trend in post-bipolar international politics for the powerful states to impose their own national interests in the form of ‘international norms'”.
Dr Farrukh Saleem, an Islamabad-based freelance columnist, argues that US dominance in global conventional arms sales undermines its moral standing for global leadership.
India
1. India Security Policies
The Indian government is reportedly enlisting armed forces personnel to promote key foreign policy goals by making diplomatic contacts with the militaries of other important countries.
“Shift in foreign policy approach”
2. US-India Relations
The United States and India reportedly have decided to resume their regular military dialogue interrupted by US sanctions on India following its nuclear tests.
“India-U.S. defence talks by year-end”
3. China-India Relations
Mr. Hua Junduo, the new Chinese envoy to India, called for the two countries to improve relations and solve their long-standing boundary dispute.
“Let’s create a favourable climate, says Chinese envoy”
Former Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes stated that India is neglecting its border with China.
4. Pakistan-India Relations
An Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson rejected claims by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf that Indian “hardliners” prevented Indian Prime Minister Atal Bajpayee from signing a joint declaration at the Agra summit.
“India rejects Musharraf’s claim on joint declaration”
An Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson criticized Pakistan for raising the Kashmir issue at the Durban conference on racism.
Brig Chandra B Khanduri in an IPCS article writes that “Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) seems to have become a synonym for international terrorism.”
5. Australia-India Relations
India and Australia are exploring ways to improve their security relationship.
“India, Australia to upgrade security ties”
“India-Australia strategic dialogue concludes”
6. India Arms Acquisitions
India will establish a Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) to increase transparency, counter corruption and speed up decision-making in military procurements.
“Govt. to set up Defence Acquisition Council”
“Defence purchases and transparency”
Indian Defence Minister Jaswant Singh has defended India’s MiG-21, despite assertions of frequent air accidents involving the jet fighter.
Pakistan
1. Pakistan Security Policies
Pakistan Chief of the Air Staff Mushaf Ali Mir has stated that the Pakistan Air Force has established a deterrent capability and has embarked on a well-considered modernization strategy.
According to data reportedly posted at the website of the Pakistan Ministry of Finance, Pakistan cut its defense budget to 3.8 per cent of the GDP last year to make up for revenue shortfalls.
2. Pakistan Policies Toward Afghanistan
Imtiaz Alam assesses issues of Pakistan’s observance of UN sanctions on Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership.
Bismillah Khan, a top field commander of Afghanistan’s anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, reportedly stated that Pakistan, with the assistance of the Taliban, plans to “create a belt of Islamic jehad around India.”
3. China-Pakistan Relations
China has asked Pakistan to ensure the safety of UN monitors who would be deployed on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to stop all weapons shipments to the Taliban militia.
4. Russia-Pakistan Relations
Pakistan reportedly has offered US$130 million to Russia to launch a spy satellite capable of “keeping an eye on India and other neighboring countries”
Kashmir
1. Diplomacy
B. Muralidhar Reddy discusses Pakistan’s increased focus on the Kashmir issue in the run-up to the meeting of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in New York.
“Pak. raising pitch on Kashmir”
V. K. Nambiar, Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, has stated that progress at the upcoming New York meeting depends upon Islamabad’s willingness to address New Delhi’s concerns on cross-border terrorism. Indian Minister of State for External Affairs Omar Abdullah said “Cross-border terrorism will always be an issue for discussions with Pakistan which it has to settle at its end.”
“Progress only if Pak. checks cross-border terrorism'”
2. Analysis
A group of experts meeting in New Delhi emphasized that non-military confidence-building measures would achieve only marginal results unless genuine progress toward resolving the core issue of Kashmir is made.
Sri Lanka
1. Diplomacy
The Sri Lankan government offered a truce to the Liberation Tiger of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and invited the Tamil Tiger rebels to join peace talks. The LTTE rejected the offer.
An analysis asserts that the LTTE’s “aggressive rejection” of the Sri Lankan Government’s temporary truce “exposes the anarchist thinking” of the LTTE, “regardless of Colombo’s own compulsions.”
“Sri Lanka’s elusive truce”