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Mark J. Valencia, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate and National Asia Research Program (NARP) Research Associate, writes, “China is unlikely to forgive or forget the fact and especially the manner of US interference.  If anything, it may have convinced China that the die is cast.  It could confirm its worst fears that the United States is stealthily trying to draw ASEAN or some of its components together with Australia, Japan and South Korea into a soft alliance to constrain if not contain China.  And China will struggle to break out politically and militarily, setting the stage for rivalry and tension in the years ahead.”

A version of this report is available in Chinese via the Oriental Morning Post.

Tong Kim, Visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul and an adjunct professor at SAIS in Washington, writes, “If there is no exit strategy on the part of Washington or Seoul, the Cheonan incident might become a defining moment for the prolonging of inter-Korean confrontation and the opening of a collision course between the United States and China in the years ahead.”