André Buys, Professor in the Department of Engineering and Technology Management at the University of Pretoria, South Africa, writes, “Many … non-state actors have knowledge, skills or capabilities of proliferation concern – as shown in the South African case with the Khan network. This case also highlights the fact that nuclear non-proliferations laws and regulations are necessary, but not sufficient, to prevent illegal nuclear trade … National registration for Defense export control appears to be a general practice in many countries and a very preliminary survey suggests that some countries might already have registers of nuclear capable individuals and organizations. Such information can therefore be used to track and monitor the activities of these individuals and organizations. The IAEA safeguards could be strengthened by requiring of states to submit their national information to an international register of nuclear capable individuals and organizations maintained and used by the IAEA.”
Archives
Policy Forum 11-08: Analytical Failure and the North Korean Quagmire
John Delury and Chung-in Moon write, “U.S. diplomats, lacking direct contact with North Korean counterparts, are in the dark about North Korea’s strategic intentions and negotiating positions. Even North Korea’s public statements are summarily dismissed as “empty words” or “blackmail”—even though North Korean behavior over the long term tends to conform to its high-level pronouncements. Instead of an engaged, empirical approach, policy decisions are being made on the basis of defector reports and disinformation, of preconceived ideas and wishful thinking. The response to the unsettling revelations at Yongbyon and tragic shelling of Yeonpyeong are case in point.”
The Path from Fukushima: Short and Medium-term Impacts of the Reactor Damage Caused by the Japan Earthquake and Tsunami on Japan’s Electricity Systems
David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, and Kae Takase, Director of Governance Design Laboratory in Japan, note that reconstruction of the Japanese energy sector using renewable energy and energy efficiency technology will be cheaper, faster, cleaner, and more resilient than traditional thermal and nuclear power plants.
Read the report.
Read the Executive Summary.
Policy Forum 11-07: The Russian Perspective on the Korean Peninsula in 2010 and Implications for the Future
Alexander Vorontsov, Director of the Department for Korean and Mongolian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, writes, “We have concluded that the only real, workable method to first halt, then try gradually to limit, and, in the long run, eliminate North Korea’s nuclear programs and capability is for the main players to enter substantive negotiations on the issues as soon as possible. And while we closely monitor Pyongyang’s fulfillment of its obligations, we should not fail to meet our own.”
After the Deluge: Short and Medium-term Impacts of the Reactor Damage Caused by the Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
The Nautilus Institute released this
report as a rapid response evaluation of the implications of the March 11, 2011
earthquake and consequent tsunami off the northeast coast of Japan, focusing on
Japan’s electricity system, its energy security and the future of the nuclear
power plants located in the earthquake- and tsunami-affected regions.
Read the executive summary.
Policy Forum 11-06: Transforming the DPRK through Energy Sector Development
David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, Scott Bruce, Nautilus Institute Director and Peter Hayes, Professor, RMIT University and Nautilus Institute Executive Director write, “Without convincing the DPRK that it can overcome its energy insecurity and achieve a sustainable energy economy, it is unlikely that Pyongyang will shift away from an economy that emphasizes exports of military hardware and illicit goods, cease its provocative behaviors, and take steps to assume productive relationships with the global community.”
Status and Future of the North Korean Minerals Sector
Edward Yoon, an accountant and expert in the North Korean resource development sector, writes, “The mining subsector of the DPRK’s industry accounted 8.3% of the North Korean GDP and about 15.9% of total export revenues in 2005. The minerals production sector in North Korea has, however, been struggling because of poor central planning and a lack of modern technology and equipment, as well as a shortage of electricity … Based on a study conducted by Chung, Woo Jin, exploitation of the DPRK’s mineral resources through linkages with South Korean and overseas consumer markets is likely to be the most profitable way for the DPRK to develop its minerals sector. Strong markets for the DPRK’s gold, silver, lead, iron ore, zinc, Tungsten, copper, and other metallic minerals are likely. In additions, among the DPRK’s non-metallic minerals, magnetite, flaky graphite, and limestone are valuable products.”
Read a response from Aidan Foster-Carter here.
Policy Forum 11-005: Two Tracks to Peace and Security in Northeast Asia
James E. Goodby, former US Ambassador and Special Representative for Nuclear Security and Dismantlement and Affiliate of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, and Markku Heiskanen, former Finnish diplomat who is currently Senior Associate of the Asia Institute in Daejeon, South Korea, suggest a two-track approach for dealing with the North Korean nuclear program. First, a North-East Asia Energy Development Organization should be formed to provide multilateral “nuclear fuel services” if the DPRK “re-commits to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)” and confirms the “dismantling of its nuclear weapons program.” Second, the ROK and DPRK should “start negotiations… to define definitively the frontiers between the two states” and eventually establish a peace treaty between the two Korean states.
Policy Forum 11-004: Time to Shift from Tension to Talks
Tong Kim, visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies and adjunct professor at SAIS Johns Hopkins University, writes, “The beginning of this year brings a new momentum for resuming talks with North Korea. Talks, if held, will be about avoiding provocations, keeping peace and stability, improving inter-Korean relations, and ultimately dismantling North Korea’s nuclear programs. We don’t know whether this rare momentum will be harnessed for a breakthrough, or if it will be left to wither away. However, this momentum did not come out of the blue.”
DPRK “Collapse” Pathways: Implications for the Energy Sector and for Strategies Redevelopment/Support
Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, and David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, write, “Whether precipitated by war, coup, or simply continuing slow economic decline, it is incumbent on the international community to help to provide services and support to stabilize North Korea in the unlikely event of outright collapse. Fortunately, many of the measures that would be needed are the same as should be undertaken in the non-collapse pathways. Among the many likely needs of the North Korean population following a collapse—food, clean water, heath care, and economic development among them—the need to promptly provide the population with reliable and demonstrably improving access to energy services (heat, light, mechanized transportation, and so on) will be a key to stabilizing the country, meeting other post-collapse needs, and readying the North for eventual smooth (one hopes) integration with South Korea.”
Read a response from Aidan Foster-Carter here.