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Peter Hayes, David von Hippel and Scott Bruce discuss changes in the DPRK energy sector (particularly since 1990) and look at the current supply and demand balance in North Korea, noting the vulnerabilities and critical needs of that sector. The authors also explore options for the rehabilitation of the DPRK energy grid that could be used in negotiations with North Korea as part of a “roadmap” to denuclearization. The report also considers the DPRK’s legitimate energy needs if negotiations are not successful and the DPRK either collapses (due to an internal coup, succession crisis, or war) or continues to stagnate. The report concludes by identifying the robust strategies that are important in both engagement and non-engagement scenarios.

Peter Hayes is a Professor of International Relations, RMIT University, Melbourne, and Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute. David von Hippel is a Nautilus Institute Senior Associate and Scott Bruce is the Director of the Nautilus Institute, San Francisco.

Jae-Young Yoon, Director of the Power System Research Group, Smart Grid Division, Korea Electrotechnology Research Institute (KERI), Seoul, provides an overview of the present status of the DPRK power sector, including newly analyzed data and future prospects of electricity supply and demand in North Korea. This report also establishes several basic inter-Korean energy cooperation plans and considers possible changes in inter-Korean relations as a result of electric power system interactions. The proposed plans included in this report are intended to be a starting point for interconnecting the power systems of the two Koreas and the fulfillment of longstanding grand plans for a Unified Korean Power System (UKPS).

In this report Choi Kyung-soo, President of the North Korea Resources Institute in Seoul, evaluates the current status of North Korea’s substantial mineral resources. Some of these minerals, such as magnesite, zinc, iron, and tungsten, could create highly competitive markets. However, almost all North Korean mines suffer from a lack of electricity and equipment. To improve mine productivity, Choi recommends the construction of large-scale hydro plants, the remodeling of the overall power system and a cooperative policy with Russia and South Korea.

This report by André Buys, Professor of Engineering and Technology Management at the University of Pretoria, South Africa, explores the potential proliferation risk posed by former Nuclear Explosive or Weapons Program (NEWP) personnel in South Africa since the program’s termination in 1991. Buys assessment establishes that the proliferation risk of a minority of former personnel is moderate to high, with unemployment, financial hardship and a lack of clear and uniform secrecy guidelines as important contributing factors.

In this report, Patrick Morgan, Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine, assesses the relevance and effectiveness of international deterrence in preventing non-state actors from undertaking nuclear-proliferation related activities. His report explores how traditional concepts of deterrence have changed with the emergence of a framework of mandated state efforts and legal regimes, including the possible application of universal jurisdiction, to address threats of nuclear terrorism or other problems associated with non-state actors.

Peter Hayes, Professor of International Relations, RMIT University, Melbourne, and Director, Nautilus Institute, San Francisco, writes “The issues involved in abolishing nuclear weapons are profoundly complex and apparently intractable. What is the status of nuclear deterrence?  What is China’s interest in strategic nuclear arms talks? How would nuclear abolition affect Korea and Japan over time?  What to do about North Korea’s nuclear weapons?  Is a nuclear weapons-free zone desirable and useful? And, how do we deal with the threat of non-state nuclear proliferation?”

Hayes’ report summarizes the special panel, ‘Is a Nuclear-free East Asia Possible? Opportunities and Constraints’ held at the 6th Jeju Forum, where five distinguished experts from Australia, China, Japan, and Korea were asked to examine these issues.

Larry L. Burton, attorney and former Acting Deputy Director at the World Customs Organization, writes, “there is no question but that as the entities controlling and administering the international movement of goods, the world’s customs administrations are uniquely positioned to provide increased security to the global supply chain…In recognition of the stark new global realities of terrorism and its aims, the World Customs Organization, in concert with its membership, has developed and made available a suite of instruments and programs designed to arm the world’s customs administrations to meet such threats.”

Rita Grossman-Vermaas, Senior International Policy Advisor in the Persistent Surveillance Division at Logos Technologies, provides an overview of what threat convergence is and the opportunities for international cooperation to mitigate the security challenges it presents.

Arvinder Sambei, Director, Sambei Bridger & Polaine Legal and Law Enforcement Specialists, draws on collective experiences to highlight the difficulties in apprehending, extraditing, and prosecuting individuals who have engaged in proliferation related behaviour salient to both counter-terrorism and to controlling WMD proliferation. Her report also highlights cases where extra-territorial jurisdiction and international legal cooperation has worked, where it has failed, and the conditions under which these outcomes were achieved.

Nathaniel Aden, Senior Research Associate with the Lawrence Berkeley Lab China Energy Group, writes, “China is North Korea’s largest international trading partner…Whereas North Korean electricity and iron ore exports are sold at sub-market “friendship prices,” Chinese coal and oil products have been sold to North Korea at premium prices. Chinese Customs data suggest that Beijing is taking a pragmatic, market-oriented approach to trade with its reclusive neighbor, while the increasingly asymmetrical energy embodiment of bilateral trade may reflect dilapidation of North Korea’s non-military industries.”