24 May 2012
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change adaptation, the DPRK, and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
- DETERRENCE: Conventional deterrence and Japan’s security
- DPRK: Evening press stand-up at Westin Chaoyang hotel
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: OECD environmental outlook to 2050: The consequences of inaction
- ENERGY SECURITY: Big oil trade group flooding airways with pro-industry propaganda ads
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: End region’s Cold War structure
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate change and violent conflict
DETERRENCE: Conventional deterrence and Japan’s security, Shinichi Ogawa, NAPSNet Special Report (22 May 2012)
If Japanese-US air and naval conventional forces balance those of neighboring nuclear-armed states, then US extended nuclear deterrence deters only first use of nuclear weapons. A nuclear-weapons-free zone is compatible with US extended nuclear deterrence provided a conventional balance deters conventional assault from a neighboring nuclear adversary.
- 2012 military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China, US Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress (May 2012) [PDF, 18 MB]
- Expansion of China’s ballistic missile infrastructure opposite Taiwan, Mark Stokes, Asia Eye, Project 2049 (18 April 2011)
DPRK: Evening press stand-up at Westin Chaoyang hotel, Glyn Davies, Special Representative for North Korea Policy, U.S. Department of State (22 May 2012)
Buried in the statement is a meeting between 6PT Glyn Davies and International Liaison Department Deputy Chief, Liu Jieyi. Chinese-North Korean relations are carried out between the respective parties. The meeting likely signifies a shift, but it is not yet clear what kind of shift. South Korea reached out to China. North Korea recently took three Chinese fishing vessels hostage, but returned them and the crew.
- North Korea on the cusp of digital revolution, Alexandre Y. Mansourov, Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability (1 November 2011)
- Seoul proposes military pact with Beijing, Chosun Ilbo (21 May 2012)
- SKorea plans to ‘drastically’ beef up missile arsenal against NK, Korea Times (22 May 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: OECD environmental outlook to 2050: The consequences of inaction, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development-OECD (2012) [PDF, 1.49 MB]
Humanity has witnessed unprecedented growth and prosperity in the past decades, with the size of the world economy more than tripling and population increasing by over 3 billion people since 1970. This growth, however, has been accompanied by environmental pollution and natural resource depletion. The current growth model and the mismanagement of natural assets could ultimately undermine human development.
- OECD environmental outlook to 2050, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development-OECD (2008)
- OECD environmental outlook, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development-OECD (2001)
ENERGY SECURITY: Big oil trade group flooding airways with pro-industry propaganda ads, Josh Israel, Climate Progress (7 May 2012)
What is ‘consciousness raising’ to one person is propaganda to another. Still, the Vote-4-Energy campaign – the Vote Energy Movement – of the American Petroleum Institute is indicative of the energy policy battles that will turn on the issue of domestic jobs. The luster of “green jobs” is lost, major solar projects and companies have failed, in US and Germany. And the US tariffs on PV imports from China will probably hurt the market overall.
- U.S. orders tariffs on Chinese solar panels, Don Lee, Los Angeles Times (18 May 2012)
- Has blazing a trail in solar energy cost California too much?, Michael Hiltzig, Los Angeles Times (23 May 2012)
- Merkel’s green jobs ambition stalls with cuts for solar, Stefan Nicola, Bloomberg (30 April 2012)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: End region’s Cold War structure, Wang Junsheng, China Daily (15 May 2012)
A Chinese scholar argues that the Six Party Talks have failed thus far due to a serious trust deficit between member states and the DPRK placing more importance on the normalization of bilateral relations with the US than regional stability. Some observers argue that China is moving towards a reform-minded government, with implications for how it handles DPRK issues.
- Bo’s ouster may alter China’s N. Korea policy, Song Sang-ho, Korea Herald (23 May 2012)
- Analysis: China reformer sees his opportunity after Bo’s fall, John Ruwitch and Michael Martina, The Star (21 May 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate change and violent conflict, Jürgen Scheffran, Michael Brzoska, Jasmin Kominek, P. Michael Link, and Janpeter Schilling, Science, Vol. 336 no. 6083 pp. 869-871 (18 May 2012)
The climate system is related in a complex way to societal stability and conflicts. Numerous interdisciplinary questions still need to be investigated to understand the feedback loops involved. Models of the various linkages can build on a rich set of tools from complexity science, multi-agent systems, social-network analysis, and conflict assessment to extend previous data and experiences into future scenarios.
- Climate change and violent conflict- supporting online material, Science, Vol. 336 no. 6083 (18 May 2012)
- Climate change, human security and violent conflict – challenges for societal stability, Jürgen Scheffran, Michael Brzoska, Jasmin Kominek, P. Michael Link, and Janpeter Schilling (eds.) Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol. 8 , Springer (30 April 2012)
- Pakistan’s climate change challenge, Michael Kugelman, AfPak Channel, Foreign Policy (9 May 2012)
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