Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly

Recommended Citation

"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 24, 2012, http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-4/

24 May 2012

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral securitynuclear deterrenceenergy security, climate change adaptation, the DPRK, and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

CONTENTS


DETERRENCE: Conventional deterrence and Japan’s security, Shinichi Ogawa, NAPSNet Special Report (22 May 2012)

If Japanese-US air and naval conventional forces balance those of neighboring nuclear-armed states, then US extended nuclear deterrence deters only first use of nuclear weapons. A nuclear-weapons-free zone is compatible with US extended nuclear deterrence provided a conventional balance deters conventional assault from a neighboring nuclear adversary.


DPRK: Evening press stand-up at Westin Chaoyang hotel, Glyn Davies, Special Representative for North Korea Policy, U.S. Department of State (22 May 2012)

Buried in the statement is a meeting between 6PT Glyn Davies and International Liaison Department Deputy Chief, Liu Jieyi. Chinese-North Korean relations are carried out between the respective parties. The meeting likely signifies a shift, but it is not yet clear what kind of shift. South Korea reached out to China. North Korea recently took three Chinese fishing vessels hostage, but returned them and the crew.


CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: OECD environmental outlook to 2050: The consequences of inaction, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development-OECD (2012) [PDF, 1.49 MB]

Humanity has witnessed unprecedented growth and prosperity in the past decades, with the size of the world economy more than tripling and population increasing by over 3 billion people since 1970. This growth, however, has been accompanied by environmental pollution and natural resource depletion. The current growth model and the mismanagement of natural assets could ultimately undermine human development.


ENERGY SECURITY: Big oil trade group flooding airways with pro-industry propaganda ads, Josh Israel, Climate Progress (7 May 2012)

What is ‘consciousness raising’ to one person is propaganda to another. Still, the Vote-4-Energy campaign – the Vote Energy Movement – of the American Petroleum Institute is indicative of the energy policy battles that will turn on the issue of domestic jobs. The luster of “green jobs” is lost, major solar projects and companies have failed, in US and Germany. And the US tariffs on PV imports from China will probably hurt the market overall.


GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: End region’s Cold War structure, Wang Junsheng, China Daily (15 May 2012)

A Chinese scholar argues that the Six Party Talks have failed thus far due to a serious trust deficit between member states and the DPRK placing more importance on the normalization of bilateral relations with the US than regional stability. Some observers argue that China is moving towards a reform-minded government, with implications for how it handles DPRK issues.


CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate change and violent conflict, Jürgen Scheffran, Michael Brzoska, Jasmin Kominek, P. Michael Link, and Janpeter Schilling, Science, Vol. 336 no. 6083 pp. 869-871 (18 May 2012)

The climate system is related in a complex way to societal stability and conflicts. Numerous interdisciplinary questions still need to be investigated to understand the feedback loops involved. Models of the various linkages can build on a rich set of tools from complexity science, multi-agent systems, social-network analysis, and conflict assessment to extend previous data and experiences into future scenarios.


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