17 May 2012
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change adaptation, the DPRK, and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
- DETERRENCE: China and a Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone in northeast Asia
- DPRK: No plans to deploy tactical nukes in S. Korea: Pentagon
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Barriers to effective climate change adaptation – draft report
- ENERGY SECURITY: The energy wars heat up: Six recent clashes and conflicts on a planet heading into energy overdrive
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: UPP’s internal meltdown was a long time coming
- AUSTRAL SECURITY: Chinese official: It’s us or America
NEW! See this week’s blog from our Climate Change Adaptation contributor, Saleem Janjua.
DETERRENCE: China and a Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone in northeast Asia, Pan Zhenqiang, NAPSNet Special Report (15 May 2012)
Pan states that while China would support the creation of a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (NWFZ) in Northeast Asia, at least two issues must first be resolved: 1) North Korea’s nuclear weapons program must be dismantled and 2) the United States policy of extended deterrence (both nuclear and conventional) in the region must be discontinued.
- US-China strategic dialogue, phase VI: An NPS and Pacific Forum Conference, PASCC Report 2012 001 (June 2011) [PDF, 1.1MB]
- Nuclear and conventional extended deterrence in a northeast Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone, summary report, East Asia Nuclear Security Workshop, International House of Japan, Tokyo (18 January 2012) [PDF, 0.5 MB]
- China’s evolving nuclear calculus: Modernization and doctrinal debate, Michael Chase, Evan Medeiros, pp. 119-157, in China’s Revolution in Doctrinal Affairs: Emerging Trends in the Operational Art of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Edited by James Mulvenon and David M. Finkelstein (2002) [PDF, 4MB]
DPRK: No plans to deploy tactical nukes in S. Korea: Pentagon, Lee Chi-dong, Yonhap News Agency (15 May 2012)
Most U.S., some Korean and all official Chinese reactions to a U.S. Republican proposal that would re-introduce nuclear weapons onto the Korean peninsula ranged from unhelpful to a “stupid move.” Both Koreas sent senior leaders to Southeast Asia with different outcomes. Myanmar agreed to stop buying North Korean Weapons. North Korea sent an official delegation to Singapore and Indonesia. DPRK likely sought investment and economic advice.
- Returning U.S. nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula would be a stupid move, Liu Yang, People’s Daily Online (15 May 2012) [Chinese language]
- South Korea says Myanmar to end North Korean arms deals, International Business Times (15 May 2012)
- Yudhyoyono tells North Korea’s Kim Yong Nam to be transparent on satellite issue, Arientha Primanita and Antara, Jakarta Globe (15 May 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Barriers to effective climate change adaptation – draft report, Productivity Commission, Commonwealth of Australia, 2012 [PDF, 1.49 MB]
Australians would need to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate, notwithstanding current and future efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Policy reforms that would help people, firms and governments deal with current climate variability and extreme weather events should be prioritized. These ‘no-regret’ or ‘low-regret’ reforms would deliver benefits and build adaptive capacity for responding effectively to future climatic impacts.
- Climate change impacts & risk management: A guide for business and government, Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), Department of the Environment and Heritage, Commonwealth of Australia, 2006 [PDF, 1.87 MB]
- Successful adaptation to climate change across scales, W. Neil Adger, Nigel W. Arnell and Emma L. Tompkins, Global Environmental Change, vol. 15, pp. 77–86, 2005 [subscription required]
Check out this week’s Climate Change Adaptation blog: Australians Must Adapt to Changing Climate.
ENERGY SECURITY: The energy wars heat up: Six recent clashes and conflicts on a planet heading into energy overdrive, Michael T. Klare, Huffington Post (10 May 2012)
Theories of oil/gas exhaustion and of wars over control of resources do not fail to excite. Klare mentions six conflict areas and claims the reason is that “many of the giant oil and gas fields … are being depleted at a rapid pace.” Resource exhaustion need not lead to wars, just price increases. It doesn’t matter how much is left in the ground, what matters is marginal cost. Two other papers challenge the faith in “peak oil.”
- Cheer up: The world has plenty of oil, Robin Mills, European Energy Review (17 April 2012)
- Peak oil revisited: The real challenges are investment and sustainability, not availability, Noé van Hulst, European Energy Review (7 May 2012)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: UPP’s internal meltdown was a long time coming, Kim Hee-jin, Joongang Ilbo (14 May 2012)
ROK minority party United Progressive Party (UPP) faces a split between pro-DPRK hard-liners and its more centrist members, with one representative accused of being a DPRK spy by a former pro-DPRK activist. While many supporters have been turned away, others have called for greater citizen participation and a re-launching of the progressive movement. China has detained four ROK activists in arrests that appear to be related to DPRK refugee issues.
- Progressives find opportunity in UPP crisis, Lee Kyung-mi and Kim So-youn, The Hankyoreh (16 May 2012)
- UPP proportional rep accused of being North’s spy, Moon Gwang-lip and Kang In-sik, Joongang Ilbo (16 May 2012)
- Four South Korean activists detained in China, BBC News (15 May 2012)
AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Chinese official: It’s us or America, Philip Wen, The Age (16 May 2012)
Australia cannot juggle its relationships with the United States and China indefinitely and must choose a ”godfather” to protect it, according to a prominent Chinese defence strategist. The warning by Song Xiaojun, a former senior officer of the People’s Liberation Army, comes after Foreign Minister Bob Carr was told by his Chinese counterpart that Australia’s close military alliance with the US was a throwback to the Cold War era.
- Carr calls for closer ties with Chinese, Philip Wen, The Age (14 May 2012)
- China’s choices and ours, Hugh White, East Asia Forum (7 May 2012)
- After Obama–the new joint facilities, Richard Tanter, Arena Magazine, No. 117 (April-May 2012)
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Yi Kiho, Dyana Mardon
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Roger Cavazos
- Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
- Austral Peace and Security: Richard Tanter