10 May 2012
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change adaptation, the DPRK, and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
- DETERRENCE: Telegram from Pyongyang to Bucharest
- DPRK: North Korea, China discuss Kim Jong-un’s travel to Beijing
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Addressing climate change and migration in Asia and the Pacific, final report
- ENERGY SECURITY: Hollande wins French presidential election
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: ’78 day protest greatly changed attitudes toward defectors’
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival
NEW! See this week’s blog from our DPRK contributor, Roger Cavazos.
Deterrence: Telegram from Pyongyang to Bucharest, Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Archive, translated by Eliza Gheorghe, NKIDP (19 February 1968)
A Vietnamese diplomat in the DPRK stated that the US was unable to use tactical nuclear weapons because, “South Vietnam was not an organized battlefield [and] use of tactical nuclear weapons would be more damaging for American troops and bases” than for the NLF, and the US feared Soviet and Chinese retaliation.
- Essentially annihilated, tactical nuclear weapons in Southeast Asia, FJ Dyson, R Gomer, S. Weinberg, S. C. Wright, Jason report (1966)
- Al Qaeda’s nuclear program: Through the window of seized documents, David Albright, NAPSNet Policy Forum 47 (6 November 2002)
- Non-state actors, nuclear next use, and deterrence, Patrick Morgan, NAPSNet Policy Forum (12 July 2011)
DPRK: North Korea, China discuss Kim Jong-un’s travel to Beijing, Song Sang-ho, The Korea Herald (6 May 2012)
North Korea likely discussed the possibility of Kim Jong-un visiting China. China likely demanded DPRK refrain from nuclear tests as a pre-condition for visiting. North Korea was discussed at the senior-most annual talks between the U.S. and China. The Chinese Minister of Defense, the Shenyang Military Region Commander, who would be in charge of a North Korean scenario, and Chief of Staff of China’s Nuclear Forces are in the U.S. this week.
- North Korea’s satellite launch tough test for Chinese diplomacy, Zhang Liangui, Global Times. (10 April 2012)
- Joint statement on the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue Outcomes of the strategic track May 3-4, 2012, Office of the Spokesperson, United States Department of State (4 May 2012)
- Zheng Hao: Highlighting the urgent geo-strategic issues of Liang Guanglie’s visit to America, Zheng Hao, International Phoenix TV (7 May 2012) [Chinese language]
Check out this week’s DPRK blog: Another North Korean Paradox: Divider and Unifier.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Addressing climate change and migration in Asia and the Pacific, final report, Asian Development Bank, Philippines, 2012 [PDF, 4 MB]
The countries of Asia and the Pacific can choose to turn the threat of climate-induced migration into an opportunity to improve lives, advance the development process, and adapt to long-term environmental change by altering development patterns, strengthening disaster risk management, investing in social protection, and facilitating the movement of labor. While some actions will require regional or global action, many steps can be taken within individual countries.
- Policy dialogues on climate-induced migration in Asia and the Pacific, discussion paper, Asian Development Bank, Philippines, 2011 [PDF, 494 KB]
- Climate change and migration in Asia and the Pacific: Executive summary, Asian Development Bank, Philippines, 2009 [PDF, 508 KB]
ENERGY SECURITY: Hollande wins French presidential election, World Nuclear News (8 May 2012)
Some in the nuclear industry are concerned that a Socialist president may not be kind to the troubled French nuclear industry. Whether he continues aggressive nuclear export promotion could be a signal to his long-term strategy. Cours des Comptes estimated that EPRs, once standardized, would cost Euros 3,100/kW excluding financing costs and inflation. An Indian bureaucrat boasts that Indian reactors cost less than half.
- India can make world’s cheapest nuclear reactors, Indrani Bagchi, Times of India (1 May 2012)
- Activists arrested at French nuclear plants, Geraldine Amiel and Inti Landauro, Wall Street Journal (2 May 2012)
- The costs of the nuclear power sector: Summary of the public thematic paper, Cours des Comptes (January 2012) [PDF, 139 KB]
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: ‘78 day protest greatly changed attitudes toward defectors,’ Dong-a Ilbo (1 May 2012)
A former ROK National Assembly representative plans to establish an alternative education school for defectors following a 78 day protest outside the Chinese Embassy in Seoul and China’s subsequent halt to defector repatriation. The ROK National Human Rights Commission released its first report detailing DPRK human rights violations based on defector testimony. A new research report argues that DPRK nationals in China are indicative of a significant migratory trend.
- Beijing with UN against North Korea: Halt to repatriation of refugees, Theresa Kim Hwa-young, Asia News (18 April 2012)
- ‘Ethnic culture space’ developing for North Korean refugees, Choi Won-hyung, Hankyoreh (7 May 2012)
- N. Korea camps ‘house the desperate, not dissidents,’ Lim Chang-Won, Agence France Presse (3 May 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival, Anthony J. McMichael, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science [PNAS], vol. 109 no. 13, pp. 4730-4737 (27 March 2012)
Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes provide insights into population health vulnerability. Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene’s natural temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable.
- Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate, Solomon M. Hsiang, Kyle C. Meng and Mark A. Cane, Letter, Nature, Vol. 476, pp. 438-441 (25 August 2011)
- The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis, David D. Zhang, Harry F. Lee, Cong Wang, Baosheng Lie, Qing Peia, Jane Zhang, and Yulun An, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science [PNAS], Vol. 108, no. 42, pp. 17296–17301 (18 October 2011)
- Pride and prejudice, practices and perceptions: A comparative case study in North Atlantic environmental history, Sharla Chittick, Doctoral dissertation, Research Centre for Environmental History and Policy, University of Stirling (2011)
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Yi Kiho, Dyana Mardon
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Roger Cavazos
- Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
- Austral Peace and Security: Richard Tanter