2 August 2012
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
- DETERRENCE: U.S. force posture strategy in the Asia Pacific region: an independent assessment
- DPRK: Troop deployment row halts China-N. Korean island project
- ENERGY SECURITY: India’s power network breaks down
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: China protests highlight simmering unrest
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: The economic value of natural and built coastal assets, Part 2: built coastal assets
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Global warming’s terrifying new math
See this week’s blog from our DPRK contributor, Roger Cavazos.
DETERRENCE: U.S. force posture strategy in the Asia Pacific region: an independent assessment, Center for Strategic and International Studies (27 June 2012)
Korea presents the highest risk of war. Even here, US forces can adjust so as to strengthen the conventional deterrent against the DPRK while expanding trilateral and multilateral interaction with other PACOM states related to the Korea conflict. Nuclear weapons are hardly mentioned in the study.
- Extended nuclear deterrence in Northeast Asia, Jeffrey Lewis, NAPSNet Policy Forum (1 August 2012)
- Korea, Australia launch strategic dialogue, Korea Herald (30 July 2012)
DPRK: Troop deployment row halts China-N. Korean island project, Koicihiro Ishida, Asahi Shimbun (31 July 2012)
While there are some surface changes in North Korea, most things continue as they always have and reflect a period of relative stability. China and North Korea recently exchanged two high-level visits leading to speculation Kim Jong Eun may visit China. South Korea and China agreed to a Ministerial-level Defense hotline indicating China believes any North Korean reaction is manageable. North Korea suffered a drought and floods in the same month.
- Is Kim Jong Eun planning a visit to China? Evan Ramstad, Korea Real Time – Wall Street Journal (31 July 2012)
- Seoul and Beijing to set up defense hotline, Choi He-Suk, The Korea Herald (31 July 2012)
- UN team to visit North Korea flood areas, AlJazeera, (31 July 2012)
Check out this week’s DPRK blog: Mutual Trust: Collective Hedge
ENERGY SECURITY: India’s power network breaks down, Amol Sharma, Saurabh Chaturvedi, Santanu Choudhury, Wall Street Journal India (31 July 2012).
More than a half these people would not have had electricity even if the grid had not gone down. Their lives were dark last week and will be dark again next week. The rest of South Asia also suffers the same syndrome of shortages for the rich, darkness for the poor. A monumental failure of infrastructure planning and delivery.
- India – power crisis, Lex, Financial Times (31 July 2012) (Subscription required)
- Load-shedding: The silent spindles of Punjab, Taha Siddiqui, The Tribune (20 July 2012)
- Political turmoil, power outages short-circuit Nepal’s hydropower potential, Kamala Gautam, UPI (3 July 2012)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: China protests highlight simmering unrest, Lisa Murray Australia Financial Times (31 July 2012)
The PRC faced a wave of criticism from civil society this week. Violent protests in Qidong forced the cancellation of an industrial pipeline after protestors stormed the local government building. Protestors in Hong Kong demonstrated against perceived “brainwashing” by a new textbook that glosses over CCP history. A ROK activist claims PRC authorities tortured him, leading the Foreign Ministry to pledge to interview all 625 ROK nationals held in China for instances of abuse.
- China paper blames poor government decisions for violent protest, John Ruwitch, Terra News (30 July 2012)
- Hong Kong protesters oppose “propaganda” education plan, Sisi Tang, Reuters (29 July 2012)
- China denies torturing S. Korean activist, Chosun Ilbo (1 August 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: The economic value of natural and built coastal assets, Part 2: built coastal assets, Sally Kirkpatrick, NCCARF (March 2012) [2.96 MB, PDF]
Both natural and built coastal assets are under increasing pressure from a growing population and also from the projected impacts of climate change. There is a need to better understand how much these assets are worth to the society and also how these assets might be at risk from diverse and dynamic pressures, both current and future.
- The economic value of natural and built coastal assets, Part 1: natural coastal assets, Sally Kirkpatrick, NCCARF (27 June 2011) [461 KB, PDF]
- Economic valuation of natural resources: a guidebook for coastal resources policymakers, Douglas W. Lipton et al., NOAA Coastal Program Decision Analysis Series No. 5, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (June 1995)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Global warming’s terrifying new math, Bill McKibben, Rolling Stone (19 July 2012)
For the past year, an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds. And it allows us to understand our precarious – our almost-but-not-quite-finally hopeless – position with three simple numbers. They provide intellectual clarity about the greatest challenge humans have ever faced. We know how much we can burn, and we know who’s planning to burn more.
- Unburnable carbon – are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble? Carbon Tracker Initiative (March 2012) [PDF, 1.7MB]
- Scientists to state department: climate change must be considered in new Keystone XL tar sands pipeline review, Elizabeth Schope’s Blog, Switchboard, Natural Resources Defense Council (20 July 2012)
- Interview – Thomas Homer-Dixon: exploring the climate “mindscape”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Vol. 68, No. 3, pp. 1–9 (May/June 2012) [202.6KB]
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Dyana Mardon, Yi Kiho
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Roger Cavazos
- Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
- Climate Change and Security: Richard Tanter