NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE AND SECURITY NETWORK ***** SPECIAL REPORT ***** The following "DPRK Report" is the product of a joint project between the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) of the Monterey Institute of International Studies (Monterey, California, USA) and the Center for Contemporary International Problems (ICIP) at the Russian Diplomatic Academy (Moscow, Russia). It is written by Russian analysts associated with the ICIP and edited by the CNS. ------------------------------------------ THE DPRK REPORT, No. 15 (November-December 1998) 1. North Korea Prepares for an "Imminent" U.S. Attack North Korean diplomats in Moscow and other CIS capitals insist in private conversations that their government has reliable information about imminent plans of Washington to deliver a "surgical" air strike against suspected nuclear targets in the DPRK. As a high-ranking diplomat in Moscow put it, "Since the Americans got away with the bombings in Iraq, they have decided that the time is ripe to repeat the trick in Korea." However, these North Korean officials have let it be known that their country "won't be as passive as Iraq." Instead, Pyongyang is allegedly prepared to strike back at Seoul and Japan and "once and forever teach Americans a lesson." One diplomat adds, "If Washington takes the challenge and unleashes an all-out war against the DPRK, it will be only for the better. We'll settle all accounts with the enemy." Russian analysts are taking these threats by Pyongyang seriously. They believe that Washington, euphoric with its latest successes in the Middle East, might well undertake an attack on "suspected" facilities in the DPRK. They also don't exclude a possibility that North Korea might strike back. 2. Underground Facilities in the DPRK Russian experts express surprise at the attention given lately in the United States to North Korea's underground facilities and on-going construction work. The experts point out that it has long been an open secret that there are thousands of underground sites in the DPRK. Following the example of Maoist China, North Koreans began to dig those sites back in the 1960s to hide plants and factories, power stations and research laboratories, hospitals and military units. Russian experts believe that conservative forces in Washington are not happy with the current "soft" line towards the DPRK and are using the current construction in an attempt to discredit this line with "empty accusations" against Pyongyang. In contrast with these conservative U.S. officials, experts in Moscow don't see anything unusual, illegal, or necessarily threatening in the recent excavation work by North Koreans on their own territory. 3. North Korean Officials Denounce Market-Style Reforms In official and unofficial contacts with Russian counterparts, DPRK representatives on their own initiative raise the question of reforms. They mention the fact that lately some foreign scholars, including Russians, have been talking about the necessity for the DPRK "to launch Chinese-style and Vietnamese-style reforms." North Korean officials explain that their country "will never be tempted by reforms or the opening of society." They argue that "Globalization of the Chinese and Vietnamese economies means nothing else but the 'Americanization' of China and Vietnam." Pyongyang, according to DPRK officials, is prepared to be branded "a conservative force," but it will never change its views on the construction of a self-reliant economy. The idea of relying on external sources of development is "absolutely unacceptable" to the DPRK. Consistent with its prior policies, North Korea will continue to favor the promotion of heavy industry. Light industries and agriculture will be developed "in due course." DPRK officials admit that North Korea is experiencing "serious difficulties" in its economic development. However, these difficulties "are not created by the deficiencies of the system." Instead, they argue that they are "a direct result of natural calamities and hostile policies of imperialist states." Despite these difficulties, North Korea "stands tall" as "an independent country feared by most powerful imperialists." As for China and Vietnam, North Korea officials believe that these socialist countries have turned into "junior partners" of the United States and are "on the verge of internal social upheavals." 4. Chinese Views of the Korean Peninsula In conversations with Russian colleagues, Chinese officials and scholars emphasize the importance of creating a sub-regional security mechanism for the Korean Peninsula. They complain that hostile feelings between the DPRK and the ROK have grown even more intense. According to the Chinese view, North Korea deserves more of the blame since it is the one dispatching spy submarines, lashing out at President Kim Dae-jung in its propaganda organs, and constantly warning about a coming war. In addition, the North Korean economy is in such a sorry state that the DPRK may become destabilized. Chinese officials emphasize that China's policy towards the Korean Peninsula stresses the need to preserve peace and stability, keep nuclear weapons off the Korean Peninsula, promote peace talks between the North and the South, and participate in the Four-Party Talks and other multinational efforts. Beijing believes that Russia should also be included in all these efforts. 5. China's Reaction to the North Korea's Missile (Satellite) Launch Chinese officials complain that the DPRK did not provide any advance notice to Beijing about its missile test last August. When the Chinese side asked for clarifications, Pyongyang gave "a rather rude" answer by saying that each country had a right to develop its space program without outside interference. The missile, the Taepodong-1, has the diameter very close to that of the Chinese DF-3 medium-range ballistic missile. This fact led some U.S. experts to claim that the Korean missile had been developed with Chinese assistance. Chinese officials deny this possibility categorically, arguing that China is not interested in fostering a missile race right on its own border and in a region that is already full of weapons and tensions. According to Chinese sources, the bulk of the equipment for Taepodong-1 derives from Japanese technology acquired by North Korea from third countries, while assistance on the spot to develop the missile was provided by experts from the former Soviet republics, especially Ukraine. The Chinese side is cautioning Pyongyang against new tests of the rocket in order "to avoid international complications and to deny American hawks of additional arguments against the DPRK." The North Korean side insists that what it is seeking to develop is an artificial satellite, not a weapons system, and "as soon as comrade Kim Jong-il gives an appropriate order, the tests will be continued." 6. Kim Jong-il's Alleged Refusal to Meet Chinese Leaders Senior Chinese diplomats inform Russian representatives that in the four years since Kim Jong-il assumed supreme power in the DPRK, he has refused to hold a summit with PRC leaders. As Pyongyang has explained it, Kim is too preoccupied with internal affairs. In reality, the Chinese side believes that the DPRK is angry with the rapidly expanding cooperation between Beijing and Seoul. Pyongyang is especially annoyed with the planned visit of the South Korean defense minister to China in early 1999, the first such trip ever. Another concern of the North, which it makes no effort to hide, is its annoyance with the recent warming of relations between China and the United States. To punish the Chinese for their "misdeeds," Pyongyang is making moves to improve its ties with Taiwan, including offering to bury Taiwanese nuclear waste in the DPRK. According to Chinese sources, North Korean- Taiwanese relations are gradually acquiring a quasi-official status. So far, Beijing has been silent on the matter, but an official protest may follow in the near future. The CNS website is located at http://cns.miis.edu. The ICIP can be contacted via e-mail at icipu@glasnet.ru.