Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 7 November 2013

• DETERRENCE: Transcending mutual deterrence in the United States-Russian relationship
  
• DPRK: Iranian, N Korea officials to cooperate
  
• ENERGY SECURITY: ‘Permanent slowdown’ seen in carbon dioxide emissions
• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: South Korea President Park: “No purpose” to Japan talks
  
• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: The new normal: A Hong Kong business primer on climate change adaptation
  
• CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Rethinking geopolitics: climate security in the Anthropocene

DETERRENCE: Transcending mutual deterrence in the United States-Russian relationship, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies (30 September 2013)

The historical causes of war–territorial disputes; competition for resources; and, conflicting ideologies (including religion)—are absent in the contemporary US-Russian relationship. It’s not clear why they fixate on the other’s nuclear weapons and deterrence.

• Russia, U.S. to update nuclear crisis communications, Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire (18 October 2013)
• Russia to up nuclear weapons spending 50% by 2016, Sergey Kazak, RIA Novosti (8 October 2013)
• Russia conducts large-scale exercise of its strategic forces, Russian strategic nuclear forces blog (30 October 2013)

DPRK: Iranian, N Korea officials to cooperate, Bangkok Post (3 November 2013)

North Korea made a rare admission that several of North Korean sailors died while training. It is unlikely the one data point, welcome as it is, represents a longer-term trend of openness. North Korea pursues nuclear capabilities via various means such as cooperation with Iran and improving indigenous missile capabilities. All these actions make talk cheap relative to the high cost of military capabilities.

• Real fake missiles: North Korea’s ICBM mockups are getting scary good, Jeffrey Lewis and John Schilling, 38 North  (4 November 2013)
• Iran urges elimination of all nukes ahead of talks, Edith M. Leder, The New Indian Express (5 November 2013) 
• Kim Jong Un visits martyrs cemetery of KPA Navy, Rodong Sinmun (2 November 2013)

ENERGY SECURITY: ‘Permanent slowdown’ seen in carbon dioxide emissions, Pilita Clark, Financial Times (31 October 2013)

Business as usual was rather unusual, after all. Despite all alleged “inaction” by the US in “fighting climate change”, its energy-related CO₂ emissions have been declining in recent years and are projected to do so over the foreseeable period. Such emissions are also showing slower rise elsewhere. The causes and costs will continue to be debated, but it is clear that natural gas has popped a surprise on the world, just as it did some 30 years ago; this time in the form of “unconventional” gas.

• Table 12.1 Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption by source, Monthly Energy Review, USDOE/EIA (October 2013)
• Figure A10: World carbon dioxide emissions by region, reference case, 2009-2040, International Energy Outlook, USDOE/EIA (July 2013)
• Energy fact of the day: US CO₂ emissions per capita in 2012 were the lowest since 1964, Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Carpe Diem blog, American Enterprise Institute (21 April 2013)

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: South Korea President Park: “No purpose” to Japan talks, Lucy Williamson, BBC (4 November 2013)

The ROK is not warming towards the idea of talks with Japan before receiving an apology for wartime actions, saying talks would serve “no purpose”. Adding to the strained relations is a ROK court ruling ordering Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to pay compensation to ROK women forced to work at factories during wartime. The ROK appears more willing to engage with the DPRK and is asserting ownership in DPRK negotiations.

• Court verdict against MHI over forced labor adds to diplomatic mess, Asahi Shimbun (2 November 2013)
• Park willing to meet with N. Korean leader anytime, Chang Jae-soon, Yonhap (2 November 2013)
• Diplomat emphasizes S. Korean “ownership” of N. Korean nuclear issue, Paek Hyun, Hankyoreh (5 November 2013)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: The new normal: A Hong Kong business primer on climate change adaptation, Climate Change Business Forum, Hong Kong (2013)

“Businesses can’t change the weather. What they can do is assess trends, identify risks, and build resilience into their operations and supply chains. Their assessments may also reveal opportunities for new products and services to serve the emerging low-carbon economy. Acting on anticipated climate change impacts is called climate adaptation.” “Regardless of the driver, embracing climate adaptation is like embracing any sort of corporate change, which requires leadership at the top, consistency between messages and actions, and relentless follow-through.”

• Hong Kong business survey on energy efficiency and climate change, Climate Change Business Forum, Hong Kong (2012)
• The Hong Kong guide to emission reduction – capitalising on the business opportunity, Climate Change Business Forum, Hong Kong (2013)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Rethinking geopolitics: climate security in the Anthropocene, Simon Dalby, Global Policy, DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.12074 (25 October 2013) (subscription required)

“In the new geological epoch of the Anthropocene simplistic assumptions of environmental change leading directly to conflict are misleading at best and dangerous at worst. Climate security in the long run is not a matter of environmental change causing political difficulties, but rather a matter of contemporary political difficulties causing accelerating climate change. Economies that don’t further destabilize the climate are key to future security.”

• Handbook on climate change and human security, Michael Redclift and Marco Grass (eds.) Edward Elgar (December 2013)
• Iran’s environment: greater threat than foreign foes, David Michel, Iran Primer, United States Institute for Peace (28 October 2013)
• The forest mafia: how scammers steal millions through carbon markets, Ryan Jacobs, The Atlantic (11 October 2013)