31 May 2012
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change adaptation, the DPRK, and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
- DETERRENCE: Achieving an international environment to enable a reduced role for nuclear weapons
- DPRK: Special coverage of North Korea detaining 28 Chinese fishermen
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Adaptation to climate change: Formulating policy under uncertainty
- ENERGY SECURITY: Camp David Declaration
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: DUP joins Saenuri to kick out proportional reps
- AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Defence cuts a ‘threat’ to US alliance
DETERRENCE: Achieving an international environment to enable a reduced role for nuclear weapons, Abe Nobuyasu, NAPSNet Special Report (29 May 2012)
For a Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone to be achieved, North Korea must dismantle its nuclear weapons and commit itself to denuclearize while Japan and South Korea only need to legally commit their non-nuclear status. Therefore, at least theoretically, it is now an idea even conservatives can consider endorsing.
- Escalation by default? The future of NATO nuclear weapons in Europe, Ted Seay, European Leadership Network [PDF, 0.2MB]
- NATO maintains nuclear weapons’ role in deterrence, Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire (21 May 2012)
DPRK: Special coverage of North Korea detaining 28 Chinese fishermen, Phoenix TV (24 May 2012) [Chinese language]
China conducted an unusually strong media campaign with several leading North Korea hands to protest North Korea taking Chinese fishermen hostage. China publically announced relations between the two are “normal” relations instead of “special” relations. It is too early to assess the impact on future relations. DPRK is experiencing a withering drought which will likely exacerbate food shortages. China issues work visas to 20k North Koreans.
- China gives work visas for 20,000 North Koreans, Chosun Ilbo (28 May 2012)
- B-52s break tradition during Max Thunder, AIC Michael Battles, Osan Air Force Base Public Affairs Office (25 May 2012)
- North Korea’s west coast drought continues with almost not a drop of rain in the past 30 days, People’s Daily Online (28 May 2012) [Chinese language]
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Adaptation to climate change: Formulating policy under uncertainty, Leo Dobes, CCEP working paper 1201, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University (ANU), Canberra, Australia (2012) [PDF, 658 KB]
Economists were able to formulate and recommend policy approaches for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (mitigation) by drawing on an existing body of economic theory related to externalities. However, no comparably straightforward approach has yet emerged in the adaptation literature, possibly due to the diffuse nature of climatic effects that may occur in very diverse geographical locations.
- Getting real about adapting to climate change: Using ‘real options’ to address the uncertainties’ agenda, Leo Dobes, Agenda, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 55-69 (2008) [PDF, 164 KB]
- Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change, Stéphane Hallegatte, Global Environment Change, vol. 19, issue 2, pp. 240-247 (2009) [subscription required]
ENERGY SECURITY: Camp David Declaration, Press Release from the White House (19 May 2012)
The G-8 declaration asserts “the development of and universal access to environmentally safe, sustainable, secure, and affordable sources of energy is essential to global economic growth and to their overall efforts to address climate change.” It also endorsed a new initiative on reducing short-lived climate pollutants outside the UNFCCC process, which seems to be stalling.
- Fact sheet: G-8 action on energy and climate change, Press Release from the White House (19 May 2012)
- President Obama, G8 leaders commit to cutting short-lived climate pollutants: G8 joins new climate and clean air coalition with UNEP and World Bank, Press Release, Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development (21 May 2012)
- Bonn climate talks end in discord and disappointment, Fiona Harvey, The Guardian (25 May 2012)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: DUP joins Saenuri to kick out proportional reps, Joongang Ilbo (31 May 2012)
ROK President Lee criticized pro-DPRK groups in a bi-weekly radio address and both the ruling and main opposition parties have agreed to try to remove accused pro-DPRK Assembly members. An increasing number of teens are spending time searching the web for postings in violation of the National Security Law for submission to the National Security Service. However, many younger Koreans are more concerned with the ROK-US relationship than DPRK issues.
- S. Korea teens flock online, snitch pro-North posts, Youkyung Lee, Associated Press (30 May 2012)
- Lee urges N. Korea supporters to come to their senses, Chosun Ilbo (29 May 2012)
- South Korea less fixated on North Korea, Joel Brinkley, Politico (24 May 2012)
AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Defence cuts a ‘threat’ to US alliance, John Kerin, Australian Financial Review (25 May 2012)
The nation’s top defence analysts warn that the Gillard government’s deep cuts are threatening the future of the United States alliance and Australia’s status as a middle power. The warnings come in response to a report by the leading defence think tank, ASPI, which calculates that Labor has cut, deferred or avoided spending of almost $25 billion on defence since 2009, creating an “unsustainable mess” in the defence budget.
- The cost of defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2012-2013, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (24 May 2012)
- Defence on stationing of US marines in Darwin, withdrawal of Afghanistan and other issues, Budget Estimates – Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee, Commonwealth of Australia [Greens MPs, Australian Greens] (28 May 2012)
- Social impact of the Joint Force Posture Initiative on the Northern Territory: An issues paper for public consultation, Noetic Solutions Pty Limited (18 May 2012)
Check out this week’s Austral Peace and Security blog: Complex Uncertainties in the Australian Hinge of the Pacific Pivot.
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Yi Kiho, Dyana Mardon
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Roger Cavazos
- Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
- Austral Peace and Security: Richard Tanter