Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 31 January 2013

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Peter Hayes – Deterrence Contributor, "Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 31 January 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, January 31, 2013, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-31-january-2013/

CONTENTS

See this week’s blog: Re-entry Vehicles and Rhetoric in Pyongyang from our Deterrence contributor, Peter Hayes.

DETERRENCE:  U.S. military could redefine global-strike weapons, Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire (24 January 2013)

The US military may redefine “prompt global strike” weapons to include conventional arms able to attack targets virtually anywhere around the world, within 2-4 hours of receiving a launch order, from as close as 200 miles from targets.  An urgent target might be a North Korean atomic weapon being prepared for imminent launch.

KCNABLOG: Re-entry Vehicles and Rhetoric in Pyongyang

by Peter Hayes – Deterrence Contributor

After 5 test firings (failures in 1998, 2006, 2009, 2012, and success, December 12, 2012) we know that DPRK long range rockets…

DPRK: North Korea threatens nuclear test, more rocket launches in wake of tightened sanctions Harlan, Chico, Washington Post (24 January 2013)

North Korea issued a specific and credible threat from their National Defense Commission to test a third nuclear device. It will be very difficult – but not impossible – for Kim Jong-un or North Korea to back down now.  However a North Korean nuclear device is only capable of committing national suicide or calling for talks. North Korea does NOT seem suicidal. There are presently no credible nuclear delivery methods in North Korea’s bag of tricks.

ENERGY SECURITY: Nicholas Stern: ‘I got it wrong on climate change – it’s far, far worse’, Heather Stewart and Larry Elliott, Observer (UK) (26 January 2013)

Davos time again. Lord Stern, the Paid Piper, says, “‘I got it wrong on climate change”. Duh! He will keep saying that. Jim Kim says, “There will be water and food fights everywhere,” and pledges to make tackling climate change a priority of his five-year term. As if climate change can be tackled in five years by one man and his Quixotic army. “Our dream is world without poverty” will now be replaced by “Our dream is world without climate change.” Mama Earth has to be saved first, not its children.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Not all Peninsula issues China’s problem, Global Times (25 January 2013)

DPRK displeasure at new UN sanctions extended to its relationship with China. China’s Global Times ran an editorial in response, suggesting that the DPRK should not rank too high among China’s priorities and that China would reduce assistance to the DPRK if it conducts a nuclear test. The ROK and Japan are working to improve ties with China, with each sending special envoys to Beijing this week to discuss regional issues.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Toward resilience: a guide to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, Marilise Turnbull, Charlotte L. Sterrett, Amy Hilleboe, Practical Action Publishing Ltd, UK (2013)

Disaster risk can be significantly reduced through strategies that seek to decrease vulnerability and exposure to hazards within wider efforts to address poverty and inequality. Humanitarian responses to disasters and other crises can be designed and implemented in ways that protect the affected people’s right to life and other basic rights in the short and longer term.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate change and security threats: time to call a spade a spade? Ben Zala, Sustainable Security (January 2013)

The notion of the ‘securitisation’ of climate change pre-supposes that we get to choose whether climate change is a security threat or not – it emphasises human agency. We can choose to label something as a threat or not. We can talk about security threats posed by climate change regardless of whether we can link instances of conflict and climate change in the past. Because something may pose a security threat does not mean that we have to throw military force at it.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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