19 July 2012
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
- DETERRENCE: Nuclear proliferation – looking back, thinking ahead: how bad would the further spread of nuclear weapons be?
- DPRK: N. Korea replaces army chief
- ENERGY SECURITY: Heat wave adds to misery of storms, power outages in East
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Nuclear-free movement attracts new breed to massive Tokyo rally
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Adaptation to climate change: formulating policy under uncertainty
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: US official: Higher ocean acidity is climate change’s ‘evil twin,’ major threat to coral reefs
See this week’s blog from our Energy Security contributor, Nikhil Desai.
DETERRENCE: Nuclear proliferation – looking back, thinking ahead: how bad would the further spread of nuclear weapons be? Francois Heisbourg, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (4 April 2012) [PDF 0.1MB]
The French concept (2008) of ‘ruptures stratégiques’ describes rapid, unexpected, morphing upsets of international security due to globalization against the backdrop of urbanizing populations, economic growth and environmental and resource constraints.
- Scenario III: Theocratic-corporate takeover, Open Minds, Open Futures, Nautilus Institute Global Scenarios, RMIT University, Melbourne (September 2006) [PDF, 0.4MB]
- Pirates threatening to detonate hijacked oil rig near a nuclear power plant, Joint US-Department of Defense, Korea Institute of Defense Analyses, National Institute of Defense Studies, Open Scenarios Repository, scenario#142 (2007) [PDF, 0.2MB]
- Borrowed time, Global Scenarios to 2025 full report and Global Scenarios to 2025—Scenario building workshop, US National Intelligence Center (February 2008) [PDF, 0.4MB]
- Kenneth Waltz is not crazy, but he is dangerous: nuclear weapons in the Middle East, Richard Falk (6 July 2012)
DPRK: N. Korea replaces army chief, Press TV (17 July 2012)
North Korea removed General Ri Yong-Ho from military and political posts in a surprise announcement. Moreover, the “illness” reason possibly foreshadows a “contagion” effect and many more changes. This is yet another indicator that Kim Jong-Un’s rule is secure and becoming even more secure. Chinese infrastructure improvements near the North Korean border facilitate economic, political and military goals simultaneously.
- Hyon Yong Chol promoted to Vice Marshal, North Korea Leadership Watch (17 July 2012)
- China in huge infrastructure projects near N.Korean border, Chosun Ilbo (12 July 2012)
- System to determine our own future, Moon Chung-In, Korea Joongang Daily (17 July 2012)
ENERGY SECURITY: Heat wave adds to misery of storms, power outages in East, Matt Pearce and Melanie Mason, Los Angeles Times, (2 July 2012)
A derecho hit Washington, DC area June 30th night, knocking out power supply to many, for up to several days, in the midst of a scorching “heat wave”. Heat waves and power outages have afflicted many other parts of the US, also suffering from a severe drought. These, and recent UK floods, raise concerns about extreme climatic events. A week earlier, Rio+20 ended without much hope for some 3 billion people with no or only unreliable power.
- Drought in U.S. reaching levels not seen in 50 years, pushing up crop prices, Peter Whoriskey and Michael A. Fletcher, Washington Post (16 July 2012)
- Freak weather raises climate change debate, Pilita Clark, Financial Times (13 July 2012) [Free subscription required]
- The future we want, Outcome document, Rio + 20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (19 June 2012)
Check out this week’s Energy Security blog: Powerlessness – at the top and the bottom of the pyramid: Part I
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Nuclear-free movement attracts new breed to massive Tokyo rally, Hiroshi Matsubara, Asahi Shimbun (16 July 2012)
In the largest protest since the Fukushima disaster, up to 170,000 protestors rallied against nuclear power in Tokyo, drawing a diverse crowd of activists, artists, students and families. A poll found 71% of respondents opposed a restart at the Oi reactor. The government is under fire for limiting and possibly manipulating citizen input at public hearings for nuclear policy. In Jordan, activists delivered a petition to the ROK embassy protesting about the construction of reactors.
- Tokyo anti-nuclear rally attracts thousands as protests grow, Aya Takada, Shunichi Ozasa and Scilla Alecci, Bloomberg (17 July 2012)
- Nuclear issue puts increasing pressure on Japan government, Reuters (17 July 2012)
- Jordan—Activists ask Korea to halt construction on Ramtha nuclear research reactor, Jordan Times (3 July 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Adaptation to climate change: formulating policy under uncertainty, Leo Dobes, CCEP working paper 1201, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University (2012) [658 KB, PDF]
Economists were able to formulate and recommend policy approaches for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (mitigation) by drawing on an existing body of economic theory related to externalities. However, no comparably straightforward approach has yet emerged in the adaptation literature, possibly due to the diffuse nature of climatic effects that may occur in very diverse geographical locations.
- Getting real about adapting to climate change: using ‘real options’ to address the uncertainties’ agenda, Leo Dobes, Agenda, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 55-69 (2008) [164 KB, PDF]
- Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change, Stéphane Hallegatte, Global Environment Change, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 240-247 (2009) [subscription required]
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: US official: Higher ocean acidity is climate change’s ‘evil twin,’ major threat to coral reefs, Associated Press, Washington Post (9 July 2011)
The rise in the acid levels of the world’s oceans has emerged as one of the biggest threats to coral reefs, acting as the “osteoporosis of the sea” and threatening everything from food security to tourism to livelihoods, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco said. The speed by which the oceans’ acid levels have risen caught scientists off-guard, with the problem now considered to be climate change’s “equally evil twin”. “We’re just beginning to uncover ways in which the changing chemistry of oceans affects behaviours.”
- From science to policy: using science to inform coral reef conservation and management, Keynote Address, International Coral Reef Symposium 2012, Cairns, Australia, Jane Lubchenco (9 July 2012)
- 2012: State of the climate in 2011, J. Blunden and D. S. Arndt (eds.), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 93, Issue 7 (July 2012), (Supplement) S1-S264.
- Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective, Thomas C. Peterson, Peter A. Stott and Stephanie Herring (eds.), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 93, Issue 7 (July 2012). pp 1041–1067 [3.6MB]
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Dyana Mardon, Yi Kiho
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Roger Cavazos
- Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
- Climate Change and Security: Richard Tanter