The Japan SIGINT project

This page lists publications by Desmond Ball and Richard Tanter on Japanese signals intelligence, as well as media coverage of some studies. Publications Desmond Ball and Richard Tanter, US signals intelligence (SIGINT) activities in Japan 1945 – 2015: A Visual Guide, Nautilus Institute, Special Report, 24 December 2015 [420 pp.] Desmond Ball and Richard Tanter, Japan’s Signals Intelligence […]

The Japan SIGINT Project

This page lists the publications and resources associated with the research on Japan’s signals intelligence facilities and US SIGINT facilities in Japan by Desmond Ball and Richard Tanter. It will be updated for new publications and as more materials from the project are available. Publications Desmond Ball and Richard Tanter, US signals intelligence (SIGINT) activities in Japan 1945 […]

Nautilus Peace and Security Network – 30 July 2015

DETERRENCE: Crews to start unprecedented 3-carrier swap this summer DPRK: US envoy on North Korea Sydney Seiler says Iran deal proves flexibility GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Students protest in Taiwan over ‘China-centric’ education CLIMATE CHANGE AND AND SECURITY: Beijing is finally getting serious about climate change DETERRENCE: Crews to start unprecedented 3-carrier swap this summer, Lance Bacon, Navy Times (12 July […]

Challenges Associated with Natural Gas Exports from the U.S. to Asia: the Oregon Example

In this Policy Forum David von Hippel writes “With an eye on the Asian market, developers have proposed two LNG export terminals for the state of Oregon. Terminal developers and gas producers argue that there are substantial environmental and employment benefits to exporting LNG to Asia. The challenges faced by these proposed projects in receiving the myriad necessary construction and operation permits from federal, state, and local authorities, however, as well as consideration of the arguments going on between Oregon stakeholders at the state and local level, suggest caution is in order for East Asian nations in depending on substantial future LNG exports from the US before these (and other) terminals are actually built.”

Shale Gas Revolution and Desperate “Eastward” Energy Policy of Russia

Image Source: http://media.futuresmag.com/

North America’s shale gas revolution has fundamentally changed North America’ s energy market, thereby bringing new opportunities and challenges to the Northeast Asian LNG market.

For North America, due to the increase in shale gas production, the export-import structure of gas in the US has been reversed, and the possibility of energy independence has increased. In the meantime, Canada, being almost fully dependent on the US for gas export, can not help but explore new markets, which is in fact the Asian market.

For major Northeast Asian gas importers, such as Japan and Korea, which are heavily dependent upon the Middle East and East Asia, Russia’s East Siberia is considered a new alternative for the purpose of diversifying LNG import sources for the past decade. Therefore, Northeast Asian countries tried their best to secure East Siberian gas through enhancing their bilateral relationships with Russia. However, due to the recent shale gas revolution in North America, the Northeast Asian region now encounters new opportunities in LNG contracts, which is totally different from the situation in the past.

In the mean time, once the negotiation on gas prices between Russia and China is settled, 38bcm of Russian gas will be introduced to China, In this regard, Korea and Japan should pay attention to the possible revamp in the Northeast Asian energy market and the impact related to securing energy supplying sources.

Under these circumstances, the introduction of American shale gas with a cheap price and favorable conditions Ci.e., Henry Hub price, without the clauses of take or pay and destination, etc.), or Canadian gas with relative advantages in terms of transportation distance and gas reserves, is predicted to exert a significant impact on the Northeast Asian LNG market.

Given that Northeast Asia has been significantly dependent on the Middle East or neighbouring East Asia in terms of energy security, if the region become the beneficiaries of North America ‘s shale gas revolution, the most notable thing would be that America and Canada, which have been alliances in political and military contexts, will become alliances of Korea and Japan in energy security as well. It can be referred to as a grand paradigm shift.

Apart from North America, Australia and East Africa have huge potential in gas production, which can enhance the buyers’ power in the Northeast Asian LNG market.

For Korea, the implication of East Siberian gas is not simply limited to the area of energy security, since the PNG project (gas pipeline linking Russia and South Korea via North Korea) based in East Siberian gas fields are considered as important methods to secure peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia. However, this project is thought to have missed a good time to be commenced, and Russian gas is losing its price competitiveness s compared to North America and Australia.

In conclusion, it is necessary to establish new rules and policies in the Northeast Asian energy market and within the regional situation as a whole. Initiatives on the LNG trading hub in the Asian region should be pushed forward through closer regional cooperation. In particular, Korea, Japan, and China, as major consumers, have to share common interests and make the maximum use of the favorable conditions of the shale gas revolution. Furthermore, the scope of cooperation should not be limited to Northeast Asia, which includes Korea, Japan, China, etc., but be expanded to the Asia Pacific region including North America.

AdaptNet ngày 25 tháng 9 năm 2012

Mối liên hệ giữa y tế toàn cầu và thích ứng Kiến thức, tính dễ bị tổn thương và khả năng chống chọi mang tính bản địa Lập kế hoạch thích ứng tại các thành phố Nam Bán cầu Mô hình AdaptSTAR và tính bền vững của môi trường xây dựng Thích ứng với biến […]

Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report

19 April 2012 The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change adaptation, the DPRK, and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in […]

Scenarios for the Future of United States-China Relations

Scenarios for the Future of United States-China Relations 2001 – 2010 United States Policy Towards China A Look at the Policy of Engagement Council On Foreign Relations by Elizabeth Economy The Role of Human Rights In U.S. Policy Brookings Institute by Catharin Delpino; June, 1999   The Initial Public Offering of PetroChina S. Capital Markets as a […]